Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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341 FXUS65 KABQ 072033 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 233 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 233 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025 - A rapid warmup with dry conditions expected this week. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal and around record values come mid to late this week. - Breezy to locally windy conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon across north central areas and the eastern highlands. Breezy to locally windy conditions areawide next weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025 A rapid warming trend fully gets underway Tuesday, outside a brief dip across eastern NM on Thursday due to a weak backdoor front. Temperatures will be above normal areawide on Tuesday with western and central areas 10 to 20 degrees above average by late week. After being near average Thursday, eastern areas warm up to 15 to 20 degrees above normal for the weekend! Light winds are generally expected overall with some breezy west winds across north central areas and the northeast and central highlands Tuesday and Wednesday. Southwest and west breezes pick up areawide next weekend with some windy conditions across the highlands and north central areas next Sunday. This will increase the risk for rapid fire spread after days of dry and warm conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025 An amplified longwave ridge is moving east across the Rockies and will be replaced with light/moderate northwest flow on Tuesday, followed by increasing pressure heights Tuesday night as an upper level high in the eastern Pacific nudges into the Desert SW. This adds up to continued dry conditions and an acceleration of a warming trend, with high temperatures generally 5-10 degrees above average. Breezy/gusty westerly winds will materialize by Tuesday mid afternoon with deep atmospheric mixing of light/moderate northwest flow aloft. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Upper level flow becomes northwest oriented on Wednesday between the an upper level trough digging southeast over the upper Midwest and a upper level ridge over the Eastern Pacific building north over the western U.S. The backdoor front associated with the upper level trough sneaks into far northeast NM (i.e. Union County) keeping temperatures there similar to Tuesday. Elsewhere, the warmup continues due to downsloping west and northwest winds and building 500 mb heights. Temperatures will be 8 to 12 degrees areawide. Northwest winds will be a touch breezy across the upper RV and northeast and central highlands Wednesday afternoon. The upper level trough continues digging southeast over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley regions on Thursday, allowing the ridge over the eastern Pacific and Mexico to build even further north over the intermountain West. The backdoor front in association with the upper level trough will cool locations across eastern NM down closer to average to the upper 60s to mid 70s. Highs across central NM stay similar and warm up a few degrees across western NM due to 500 mb heights increasing to 585 to 589 dam. This will result in highs across western and central NM of around 10 to 15 degrees above average. The ridge axis moves over the state on Friday resulting in even warmer temperatures across western and central NM with highs 15 to 120 degrees above average. Records will be challenged or broken for several locations across western NM with near record highs across central NM. Eastern NM warms back up to the mid 70s to around 80 thanks to increasing heights and some downsloping from south to southwest flow. The warmup peaks areawide on Saturday, especially across central and eastern NM, due to the ridge shifting over the Great Plains and increasing downslope westerly flow moving over the state ahead of a trough moving into the Pacific NW. With highs 15 to 20 degrees above average, records will be challenged or broken areawide! This will translate to 80s across most lower elevations with 90s possible across the lower RGV and east central and southeast NM. Southwest and west winds will be breezy across the highlands due to strengthening mid level and upper level flow. Winds increase further on Sunday, especially across the highlands, as stronger mid and upper level flow moves overhead south of the upper low moving across the northern Rockies and Great Plains. Downslope west winds will keep temperatures near record levels across central and eastern NM, while western NM cools a couple of degrees due to lowering 500 mb heights. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 AM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period with mostly light winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Warming/drying is forecast through the week with a developing upper level ridge being the dominant weather feature. A backdoor cold front will provide some cooling to eastern NM Thursday, but otherwise temperatures will be rising well above average by the end of the work week. The ridge will shift east of the area Saturday and be replaced with increasing westerly flow over the weekend. Temperatures will approach record highs by Saturday and a hot, dry and unstable atmosphere will prevail. Critical fire weather conditions will enter the picture Saturday and likely become more widespread on Sunday, with stronger westerly winds forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 32 72 37 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 25 67 29 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 29 66 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 23 72 28 76 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 29 68 32 72 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 25 72 29 77 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 30 71 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 36 73 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 31 70 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 28 75 32 81 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 32 78 36 85 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 25 61 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 37 66 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 33 67 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 29 64 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 26 54 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 23 60 27 64 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 24 68 29 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 30 65 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 31 73 37 78 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 36 70 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 31 72 37 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 42 73 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 40 75 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 35 77 40 83 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 38 75 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 33 78 39 83 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 37 76 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 31 77 38 83 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 36 76 41 82 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 32 77 38 83 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 39 72 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 38 75 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 39 80 45 86 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 67 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 37 70 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 34 70 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 25 71 31 79 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 31 67 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 33 70 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 33 70 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 40 72 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 38 67 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 31 69 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 29 73 35 76 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 27 74 35 78 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 31 69 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 38 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 33 74 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 36 80 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 37 76 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 38 80 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 37 77 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 36 78 42 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 36 79 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 40 81 46 90 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 39 76 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 37 73 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...11 Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated on or about Wednesday, April 9.