086
FXUS65 KABQ 241123 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
523 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 510 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

- The risk for heat-related illnesses will continue over Chaves
  County today, where highs look to once again break 100 for
  Roswell.

- Gulf moisture will move into the state in the week ahead with
  daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms from the northern
  mountains and central mountain chain eastward. Some gusty and
  dry storms will be possible as far west as the central mountain
  chain as well, especially during the latter half of the week.

- There will be a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms along and
  east of the central mountain chain each afternoon and evening
  during the week ahead. Locally heavy rainfall may also increase
  the threat of burn scar flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

Ridging will be replaced by strengthening southwest flow over the
Land of Enchantment today as an approaching H5 trough moves ashore
over SoCal. The leading edge of a backdoor cold front bringing
cooler temperatures and higher dewpoints will knock on the door of
the NM/CO and NM/OK/TX borders today at the surface. Lowering
pressure heights will allow high temperatures to fall down a few
degrees over western and northern areas, staying near the same as
what was observed Friday further south and east. Thus, Roswell will
again see minor to moderate impacts from the heat as the thermometer
is forecast to break 100F again this afternoon.

The backdoor cold front advances south and west through much of
northeastern and east-central NM, likely reaching as far west as the
central highlands and the Estancia Basin Sunday morning.
Southwesterlies ahead of this frontal boundary will again try to
push the frontal boundary back to the east with little success
through the day Sunday. Have nudged the forecast through
northeastern NM in the post-frontal sector cooler with low stratus
and CAA holding on for much of the day. Highs will range from the
60s to 70s from Raton to Clayton to Las Vegas. Numerical model
guidance continues to show a strong mid-level capping inversion in
this area as well, and any convection Sunday afternoon will favor
the leading edge along the frontal boundary and over the Sangre de
Cristo Mts where easterly upslope flow will have a better chance of
breaking the capping inversion where it is weaker. A stout veering
wind profile and abundant low-level moisture to tap into supports
the marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms in this area
Sunday afternoon over northeastern and east-central NM. Any storm
developing along the western edge of the frontal boundary will have
a chance for dry lightning given the drier boundary conditons.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

Deeper moisture will make its way into New Mexico next week as a
series of moist backdoor fronts push through the eastern plains. As
a result, daily rounds of afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
forecast (with some possibly becoming severe) for areas along and
east of the central mountain chain. The first backdoor front on
Sunday night may keep thunderstorms going through the overnight
hours in the northeast corner of the state as showers move east off
the mountains. A weak upper low over the central Rockies on
Monday looks to bring in some greater upper level moisture and
forcing for north-central areas, which may result in storms
developing a little bit farther west. But for the most part,
Monday afternoon looks to be pretty similar to the previous day,
with showers focusing over the northeast quadrant of the state. On
Tuesday, winds look to veer more southeasterly, ushering in some
moist Gulf air for parts of southeastern New Mexico. Models are
still in disagreement on the westward extent of moisture, so
thunderstorm coverage and rain amounts are still quite a bit
uncertain for areas outside of the eastern plains. However,
Wednesday shows better agreement among guidance on a deeper
westward push of moisture behind more brisk southeasterly flow
into central New Mexico. Meanwhile, another weak upper low will be
making its way over the Four Corners, which could provide some
additional forcing and shear for storms to work with. Models are
also showing PWATs climbing to near 0.75 for parts of eastern and
central New Mexico, within the 90th percentile for this time of
year according to local sounding climatology. Therefore, there is
a growing concern for burn scar flash flooding potential,
particularly if stronger storms are able to develop farther west
and dump locally heavier rainfall of half an inch to an inch over
the central mountain chain. Another backdoor front looks to push
through on Thursday night and once again bring in renewed moisture
for a rinse and repeat of afternoon thunderstorms for Friday and
Saturday. By the end of the week, areas along and east of the
central mountain chain may have received 1 to 2 inches of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

Light and variable winds this morning. Breezy to windy southwesterlies
return all areas Saturday afternoon, except far northeastern NM
at KCAO where a cold front will be stalled just before the state
line in Union County. This frontal boundary advances south and
west Saturday evening bringing a northeasterly to easterly wind
shift that will reach KLVS and KTCC b/w 06Z and 12Z Sunday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

Elevated to locally critical fire weather remains today with very
low humidity and breezy to locally windy conditions. The most prone
areas will be along and west of the Continental Divide and west-
central NM where fuels are the driest and most receptive and gusts
reaching 20 to 30 mph will be present for a short period this
afternoon. Gusty southwesterly winds will also favor the
northeastern and central highlands. Humidity falling to 5 to 15
percent will be present areawide. Sunday sees a backdoor cold front
bringing an influx of cooler temperatures and higher moisture into
northeastern and east-central NM that will swash west to east each
day thereafter through next week. The central mountain chain and Rio
Grande Valley will see a state of flux of drier conditions during
the afternoon and chances for higher humidity and good recoveries
overnight. Western areas will remain dry with modest winds lessening
fire weather concerns through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  84  50  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  80  40  79  39 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  81  46  78  45 /   0   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  81  37  78  37 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  79  44  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  84  42  81  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  81  45  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  84  51  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  81  47  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  85  42  83  37 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  89  45  87  43 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  74  41  73  40 /   0   0   5  10
Los Alamos......................  80  53  77  51 /   0   0  10  20
Pecos...........................  80  50  76  47 /   0   0  20  30
Cerro/Questa....................  78  47  75  44 /   0   0  30  20
Red River.......................  68  41  65  39 /   0   0  40  30
Angel Fire......................  74  36  69  34 /   0   0  40  30
Taos............................  81  42  77  41 /   0   0  20  20
Mora............................  79  45  73  42 /   0   0  40  40
Espanola........................  87  50  85  49 /   0   0  10  20
Santa Fe........................  81  53  78  49 /   0   0  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  84  51  82  49 /   0   0  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  87  60  85  56 /   0   0   5  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  89  56  85  54 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  91  51  88  52 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  89  57  86  54 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  92  47  87  50 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  90  54  87  54 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  91  46  87  49 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  91  56  87  54 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  91  48  87  51 /   0   0   0   5
Placitas........................  86  57  82  54 /   0   0   5  20
Rio Rancho......................  90  56  86  54 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  94  54  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  81  53  79  49 /   0   0   5  20
Tijeras.........................  84  53  81  49 /   0   0   5  20
Edgewood........................  84  50  82  46 /   0   0   5  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  86  46  83  43 /   0   0   5  20
Clines Corners..................  81  48  76  45 /   0   0  10  20
Mountainair.....................  84  50  81  46 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  84  50  81  46 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  89  56  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  83  51  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  81  49  64  44 /   0  20  60  60
Raton...........................  86  50  72  45 /   0  10  50  40
Springer........................  87  50  75  47 /   0   5  40  40
Las Vegas.......................  83  48  76  46 /   0   0  30  40
Clayton.........................  83  55  65  50 /   0  20  30  70
Roy.............................  86  52  73  49 /   0   5  40  60
Conchas.........................  94  56  81  54 /   0   5  20  50
Santa Rosa......................  91  55  81  53 /   0   0  10  30
Tucumcari.......................  94  56  81  54 /   0   5  20  50
Clovis..........................  96  60  88  57 /   0   0  10  30
Portales........................  97  60  91  55 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Sumner.....................  96  55  88  54 /   0   0  10  20
Roswell......................... 102  62  96  59 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  96  57  91  52 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  93  55  89  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...24