060
FXUS65 KABQ 171723
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
Issued by National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1123 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1123 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Scattered slow-moving storms will favor the western and northern
  mountains into the early evening. There is a low risk of flash
  flooding area-wide. Storm coverage becomes more isolated
  Tuesday.

- Smoke from the Frijoles fire will continue to impact air
  quality across portions of northern New Mexico this week.

- Temperatures trend hotter this week. Major heat risk is forecast
  for the lower elevations of central New Mexico and the southeast
  plains, including Albuquerque and Roswell, Wednesday through
  the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The region will be on the northern edge of a slow moving easterly
wave with instability axis forecast to extend from SW to NE.
Expect best storm coverage to form along this axis from the
northern Gila region towards ABQ/SAF into the LVS area. Slow storm
motion and modest moisture in the area will mean the main impact
will be heavy rain and localized flooding. The easterly wave will
be moving west of the CWA overnight into early Tue with much drier
air pushing west. Upper ridge will become more established and the
main weather impact will switch to heat. NBM temps over the
eastern plains out towards KTCC looked way too low and did raise
from the upper 90s to above 100, but MAV is giving 105 and the MET
103. Went closer to the MET but thinking it may still not be warm
enough given dew points falling into the lower to mid 40s.
Isolated thunderstorms are still possible over the mountains,
mainly west.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Main feature that will dominate the weather pattern through the
period will be the upper high remaining near the Four Corners
region into the weekend. The models have come around to a common
solution for Wed/Thu with just a weak upper trough passing through
the northern/central plains instead of the very strong upper low
the GFS had late last week. There will still be some influence
from this trough with the tail end of a surface boundary moving in
from the NE and being the focus for thunderstorm development over
NE NM late Wed. The moisture from that activity will then get
pushed further west for Thu and there will be a more area-wide
thunderstorm threat that continues into Fri. Temperatures will be
hottest Wed around ABQ with upper 90s in the lowest elevations.
Areas out east will already be under the influence of the trough
and will be cooler than Tue. Some areas will get close to Heat
Advisory criteria, but confidence not high criteria will actually
be met.

For the weekend, it`s more just some recycled/trapped moisture
under the upper high that will help trigger thunderstorms on the
area mountains and then some push onto the lower elevations with
outflows. Good agreement between GFS/EC and their ensemble means
with this pattern, so confidence is fairly high. It does look like
with less moisture around for the weekend that temperatures will
start to climb up again to near records. ABQ records are generally
upper 90s, with NBM going around 97 Sat-Mon so tying or breaking a
record isn`t out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period.
Scattered storms this afternoon will favor the high terrain of
western and northern New Mexico. Storm motions will be slow
towards the southwest, with storms moving off the terrain into
the lower elevations during the late afternoon and evening. Kept
in PROB30 for ABQ/AEG, GUP and SAF with ROW and FMN remaining dry.
Storms will taper off after 00Z, with only a few lingering
showers after 03Z. Gusty and erratic winds up to 40 knots will be
the main concern with convection this afternoon/evening. Skies
gradually clearing  overnight and Tue morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Scattered showers and storms this afternoon/evening will focus
over the high terrain of western and northern New Mexico. Steering
flow will be weak, with slow and erratic storm motions in most
areas. Given the slow steering flow, wetting rainfall will be hard
to come by in lower elevation locales but locally heavy rain is
possible in the mountains.


Storm coverage trends lower on Tuesday as moisture is pushed west.
Isolated activity will favor the peaks of the northern mountains
and the southwest higher terrain. A backdoor front will replenish
moisture across the east Wednesday more area-wide coverage for
Thu. Isolated to scattered coverage favors the western and
northern mountains Friday through next weekend, with low chances
in the eastern plains and the lower elevations of central New
Mexico.

Hot temperatures are forecast area-wide all week, with highs
generally running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Afternoon humidities
will be low as well, with values bottoming out between 15 and 25%
each day. Winds generally light except near thunderstorms as upper
high dominates near the Four Corners region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  95  64  97 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  51  93  51  94 /   0   0   5   0
Cuba............................  59  90  59  93 /   5   0  20   0
Gallup..........................  58  91  59  92 /  10   0  10   5
El Morro........................  56  85  57  87 /  30  30  10  20
Grants..........................  58  90  59  92 /  10  20  10   5
Quemado.........................  58  87  60  89 /  40  10  20  10
Magdalena.......................  62  87  64  90 /  20  10   5  20
Datil...........................  57  83  59  86 /  30  10  10  30
Reserve.........................  55  90  59  93 /  40  20  20  30
Glenwood........................  61  94  62  97 /  40  20  30  50
Chama...........................  51  86  53  87 /   5   0   5  10
Los Alamos......................  62  88  63  90 /  30  40  10  20
Pecos...........................  56  88  59  90 /  50   5   5  10
Cerro/Questa....................  57  87  58  87 /  10   0  10  10
Red River.......................  47  77  49  77 /  30   0  10  30
Angel Fire......................  39  82  43  83 /  30   5  10  30
Taos............................  54  91  55  92 /  10   0  10   5
Mora............................  52  86  55  87 /  40  10   0  30
Espanola........................  61  95  62  97 /  10   5   5   0
Santa Fe........................  62  89  63  92 /  30   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  59  92  61  94 /  20   5   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  96  70  99 /  30   0   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  95  68  98 /  20   0   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  97  66 100 /  10   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  96  70  99 /  10   0   5   0
Belen...........................  63  96  65 100 /  10   0   5   0
Bernalillo......................  66  98  68 101 /  20   5   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  63  96  64  99 /  10   0   5   0
Corrales........................  67  98  69 101 /  20   0   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  64  96  66  99 /  10   0   5   0
Placitas........................  65  94  67  97 /  30  10   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  67  97  69 100 /  10   0   5   0
Socorro.........................  68  97  69 101 /  10   0   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  89  62  92 /  30  10   5   5
Tijeras.........................  62  90  64  93 /  30  10   5   5
Edgewood........................  56  91  59  94 /  20  10  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  93  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
Clines Corners..................  58  88  61  90 /  10  10  20  10
Mountainair.....................  58  90  61  93 /  20  10  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  58  88  60  91 /  10   5  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  63  90  66  94 /  10   0   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  57  84  59  87 /  20  30  10  20
Capulin.........................  58  88  57  85 /  30   0  10  70
Raton...........................  54  91  57  89 /  20   0   5  60
Springer........................  54  94  57  92 /  20   0  10  30
Las Vegas.......................  56  89  57  90 /  20  20  10  30
Clayton.........................  67  97  65  91 /   5  10  10  10
Roy.............................  63  95  61  91 /  10   0  10  30
Conchas.........................  67 102  68  99 /   5  10  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  64  98  64  95 /   5   0  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  68 102  69  99 /   5   0  10   0
Clovis..........................  69 101  68 100 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  68 102  68 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  68 100  67 101 /   0   0   5   0
Roswell.........................  69  99  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  63  95  64  97 /   0   5  10   0
Elk.............................  59  92  60  95 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99