572
FXUS65 KABQ 282318 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
518 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 512 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- Storms will increasingly favor areas along and west of the
  central mountain chain Friday through the weekend.

- Near-record high temperatures will raise the risk of heat-
  related illnesses across central and western NM today and across
  eastern NM for the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Another round of afternoon convection is expected today, with storms
initiating over higher terrain before spreading into adjacent
valleys and lowlands. Model instability and shear looks generally
unimpressive, which should limit the overall potential for severe
weather. Although, any stronger storms may still produce locally
strong and erratic outflow winds. Storm motions will be on the
slow side, especially across western New Mexico, which will
increase the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Moisture will
also increase somewhat across the west (PWATs ~0.75-1.00 inches),
with the greatest concern for heavy rainfall being across the
southwest mountains and the burn scars near Ruidoso.

The center of the ridge will propagate eastward this weekend as a
trough digs into the western CONUS. This will promote a more
established monsoonal moisture plume across much of western New
Mexico, with PWATs increasing to around or slightly above 1 inch.
As a result, thunderstorm coverage should increase across western
and central portions of the CWA. Slow-moving storms will once
again support a risk for isolated flash flooding, especially where
storms repeatedly track over the same areas. Outflow boundaries
from western convection could push into the Rio Grande Valley
during the late afternoon and evening potentially bringing gusty
winds, blowing dust, and perhaps a few additional thunderstorms.
Meanwhile increasing subsidence and downslope flow east of the
mountains will support a warming trend, with portions of eastern
New Mexico reaching the triple digits on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The ridge will settle over the Southern Plains Sunday and Monday,
allowing for continued moisture transport into western New Mexico.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected across the
western half of the state during the afternoon and evening hours,
with PWATs remaining around or above 1 inch. While locally heavy
rain and flash flooding will be the main hazards, faster storm
motions toward the northeast at 10-20 mph should help limit the
duration of rainfall over any one location. However, repeated
rounds over the same area could still produce flash flooding.
Outflows from western convection may once again propagate into the
Rio Grande Valley late in the day, bringing periods of strong
wind and an opportunity for isolated storms. Through Monday, the
persistent ridging and lack of rainfall will keep eastern New
Mexico hot, with an increasing number of locations potentially
reaching the triple digits.

Beyond Monday, model guidance disagrees as to where the ridge
will set up. With the extended forecast reliant on the NBM
solution, which is leaning heavily similar to that of the ECMWF,
the consensus is that the ridge will be elongated and mainly
focused over the Southeastern CONUS. That being said, we are
expecting more of a transition to a less active monsoon pattern by
Tuesday. However, any lingering moisture should be sufficient
enough to promote isolated to scattered high-terrain convection
each afternoon through the end of the period, with locally heavy
rainfall and gusty outflows still possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period, although with low probabilities for short-lived MVFR
conditions in iso/sct storms both this evening and Saturday
afternoon. Strong/erratic wind gusts are likely with storms
through Saturday, but otherwise winds will be light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Critical fire weather is not anticipated through the next week.
Although, fire starts will remain possible with frequent lightning
and locally gusty outflow winds from thunderstorm activity through
Monday. Speaking of thunderstorms, increasing monsoonal moisture
and convection will be focused across the western half of New
Mexico through early next week, with storms spreading into the
Rio Grande Valley during the late afternoon evening. Eastern New
Mexico will remain considerably warmer and drier, with
temperatures 10-12 degrees above normal. With humidity being low
and thunderstorm coverage being limited, the combination of heat
and dry fuels will continue to support a slightly elevated fire
potential out east. The monsoonal moisture surge will degrade by
Tuesday, decreasing the overall precipitation coverage through the
remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  93  62  86 /  10  30  50  50
Dulce...........................  55  88  54  84 /   5  20  50  40
Cuba............................  59  89  58  85 /   5  20  50  40
Gallup..........................  59  89  58  81 /  30  30  50  60
El Morro........................  55  84  54  79 /  10  40  50  60
Grants..........................  56  87  53  81 /  10  50  50  60
Quemado.........................  58  84  57  80 /  20  50  40  60
Magdalena.......................  63  86  61  84 /  10  30  40  50
Datil...........................  57  83  56  81 /  10  40  40  50
Reserve.........................  56  90  56  88 /  20  30  30  60
Glenwood........................  60  97  60  94 /  20  20  30  30
Chama...........................  54  81  53  78 /   5  20  40  40
Los Alamos......................  63  83  61  79 /   5  20  30  40
Pecos...........................  57  90  57  89 /   5   0  10   5
Cerro/Questa....................  56  84  56  83 /  10  10  20  20
Red River.......................  49  75  49  73 /  10  10  20  20
Angel Fire......................  44  80  45  78 /  10  10  10  20
Taos............................  53  87  56  84 /  10  10  20  20
Mora............................  54  85  54  83 /  10  10  10  20
Espanola........................  64  93  63  90 /   5  20  30  20
Santa Fe........................  60  89  60  84 /   5   0  10   5
Santa Fe Airport................  59  91  60  86 /   5   0  20   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  93  65  88 /   5   0  20   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  70  94  67  89 /   5   5  30  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  68  96  65  90 /   5   5  30  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69  96  66  91 /   5   5  30  10
Belen...........................  65  97  64  95 /   5  10  30  20
Bernalillo......................  68  95  66  92 /   5   5  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  64  96  62  93 /   5   5  30  10
Corrales........................  68  96  65  92 /   5   5  30  10
Los Lunas.......................  63  96  62  94 /   5  10  30  20
Placitas........................  67  92  64  88 /   0   0  20   5
Rio Rancho......................  69  94  67  92 /   5   5  30  10
Socorro.........................  68  97  65  94 /   5  20  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  89  62  87 /   5   0  20   5
Tijeras.........................  64  90  63  88 /   5   0  20   5
Edgewood........................  61  89  60  88 /   0   0  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  91  55  90 /   5   0  10   5
Clines Corners..................  59  88  59  85 /  10   0  10   5
Mountainair.....................  61  90  59  89 /  10   0  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  60  89  59  89 /  10   0   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  65  93  65  93 /  10  10   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  58  87  58  87 /  10  30  10  10
Capulin.........................  58  88  57  86 /  10  10  10  10
Raton...........................  56  93  57  91 /  10  10  10  10
Springer........................  55  93  57  93 /  10  10  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  57  89  56  86 /  10   0  10   5
Clayton.........................  65  97  65  97 /   5   0  10   0
Roy.............................  62  93  60  92 /  10   0  10   0
Conchas.........................  68 100  67 100 /  10   0  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  66  96  66  96 /  20   0  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  71 103  72 101 /  10   0   5   0
Clovis..........................  66  97  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  66  99  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  68  98  69  99 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69 101  70 102 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  63  95  64  96 /   5  20   0   0
Elk.............................  60  89  61  91 /   5  20   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...11