Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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051 FXUS65 KABQ 041735 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1035 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1031 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025 - Remaining dry with highs generally around 5 to 15 degrees above average this week. - Breezy conditions across the central highlands today and eastern highlands and east central plains Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1031 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025 Standing wave clouds just east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains this morning are indicative of the west/southwest flow moving over them, causing breezy to locally windy conditions near the ridgetops. The corridor of stronger winds will shift south to east central NM, where wind gusts up to 35mph are likely through the late afternoon in the Central Highlands and further east along the I-40 corridor. Temperatures remain 5-15F above average across the state, with highs reaching the low to mid 80s across eastern NM and the high 70s across central NM. Clear skies and calm winds tonight should allow lows to be a few degrees cooler than last night, though still near to above average across the state. For Wednesday, a backdoor cold front begins to sag into eastern NM by mid morning and sloshing its way down the NM/TX border. Temperatures therefore drop a few degrees in eastern NM (high 60s to mid 70s), though still remaining above average for early November. A few breezes from the east behind the front are likely in eastern NM, with otherwise calm conditions statewide. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1031 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025 Westerlies pick up again on Thursday with speeds upwards of 30-40kts at 700mb across the central mountain chain. In turn, a very similar scenario compared to today plays out, with a surface low forming in northeast NM, aiding already breezy conditions across east central NM. Gusts have a chance (~30-40%) to reach 40mph across the Central Highlands during the afternoon hours. Temperatures remain above average, especially in eastern NM where downsloping winds once again bump highs up into the high 70s and low 80s. Northwest flow then begins late in the week, continuing our dry stretch. A weak backdoor front looks to cool off much of eastern NM a few degrees on Friday, with little change expected for Saturday given the consistent upper level flow and small surface changes. Late weekend gets a little interesting as the longwave trough delivering northwest flow to NM begins to strengthen and form a strong cold front across the central Great Plains. This cold front then pushes its way into eastern NM likely on Saturday evening and through the overnight hours. With this being the strongest front of the week, a sharp temperature drop across much of the state, especially eastern NM, is looking more likely. No precipitation is expected with the front, just a cool down to more November-like temperatures (high 40s to mid 50s are the most likely temperatures currently across eastern NM). This front may also push up against the central mountain chain and work to produce a breezy to gusty gap wind in ABQ and Santa Fe. Current MOS guidance has gap winds around 15-20mph, with gusts up to 30mph. As we get closer and more higher resolution models get a hold of the front, a clearer picture will be seen on how strong of a gap wind is observed. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Breezy west winds across east central NM from KCQC to KTCC may produce gusts up to 25-30kts through the afternoon, tapering off between 01-03z. Gusts may remain around 15-20kts near KCQC after this time. Isolated instances of LLWS may occur through the late afternoon near the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Clear and calm conditions should bring about drainage winds at terminals near terrain overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1031 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025 Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon and Thursday afternoon across east central NM. West winds of 15-20mph with gusts up to 35mph today and 40mph Thursday, along with humidity values in the mid to low teens, will be the driving force for near critical conditions. There is a decent chance (~50%) that some locations across the Central Highlands, Guadalupe, San Miguel, Curry, and Quay Counties see a few hours of critical fire weather conditions on Thursday given the information above. However, ERCs still remain at or below the 50th percentile, so there is a low chance that a Red Flag Warning will be needed. A backdoor front is likely to provide a widespread cooldown on Sunday. There are very high chances at no precipitation occurring through the next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 36 69 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 26 68 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 34 67 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 27 67 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 34 66 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 30 71 32 70 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 33 68 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 42 70 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 36 67 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 33 75 32 75 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 38 78 39 78 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 31 63 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 41 66 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 41 67 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 66 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 32 58 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 19 63 25 59 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 28 68 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 37 66 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 35 73 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 43 67 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 38 68 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 71 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 41 72 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 39 74 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 41 73 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 36 73 34 76 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 40 74 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 35 73 34 75 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 40 74 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 37 73 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 44 70 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 41 73 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 42 76 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 41 66 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 41 67 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 36 69 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 32 71 30 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 39 66 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 39 69 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 40 70 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 45 73 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 45 68 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 41 63 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 36 69 32 71 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 34 70 31 73 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 37 67 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 48 66 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 40 68 35 74 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 39 73 37 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 41 72 37 76 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 41 73 37 81 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 46 76 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 45 78 39 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 44 76 38 81 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 44 82 41 82 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 80 42 81 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 44 79 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...77