Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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154 FXUS65 KABQ 171749 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1149 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026 - A multi-day threat of rapid fire spread continues through Monday with the most critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions focused over eastern New Mexico. - Hazardous crosswinds will impact high profile vehicles along with lowering visibility due to blowing dust today and Monday afternoon. - There is a moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations through this evening across the eastern plains due to near-record heat. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 148 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026 A very dry, warm, and windy weather pattern remains on tap today and Monday. A potent 140kt H3 jetmax digging down the PacNW is sharpening a troughing pattern that extends over the northwestern CONUS. This feature will continue to dig southward closing off an H5 low over the Great Basin region this afternoon. Southwesterly flow over the Desert Southwest will strengthen in response, enhancing the fire growth pattern over NM. Southwesterly winds of 15-25mph sustained, gusting to 30 to 45 mph will be common today with the strongest gusts focused over the south-central mountains by Ruidoso and the northeastern highlands and plains. Patchy blowing dust in dust prone areas alongside hazardous crosswinds for high profile vehicles on area highways will be present. The main vortlobe rounding the southern periphery of the H5 low will track over the Four Corners region tonight into Monday morning with any notable precipitation staying north of the state border. Elevated southwesterly winds will remain over mountain tops overnight before spreading back down to surrounding lower elevations during the day and afternoon Monday. Timing for the strongest winds aloft to mix down the surface is somewhat favorable to avoid the highest potential wind gusts as numerical model guidance is showing the strongest winds aloft at H7 to begin moving northeastward over CO/KS/OK Monday afternoon. But not entirely, there is still a moderate chance (30-50%) for high wind gusts > 55mph reaching areas over and immediately east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts early Monday afternoon before wind potential subsides later in the day. Another round of blowing dust and hazardous crosswinds on area highways will focus for central and eastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 148 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026 As prevailing southwesterly winds subside Monday evening, a cold front backing southward through eastern NM will bring one more round of gusty winds, this time out of the north Monday night into Tuesday morning. Subsidence behind the exiting and opening H5 low/trough over the Great Plains will produce a strong 9-12mb 3hr surface pressure increase behind this cold front through eastern NM and the OK/TX Panhandles. This sharp increase in surface pressure will help push the front and enhance northerly to northeasterly wind gusts to 25 to 35 mph for a few spots along the TX border like Clovis. Otherwise, this front will bring cooler temperatures and higher humidity to eastern NM as it washes up against the eastern slopes of the central mountain range. A few showers and perhaps a stray isolated thunderstorm along the Sangre de Cristo`s is not out of the question Tuesday afternoon. Drier conditions and lower humidity remain along and west of the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday. After drier S/SSW winds try to push back into portions of eastern NM, a more notable push of cooler air with higher humidity makes its way into eastern NM Wednesday. This will knock high temperatures back into the 80s for places like Roswell. Wednesday and beyond continues to advertise a two-faced situation across New Mexico with the west favoring dry conditions while higher moisture and chances for afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor areas along and east of the central mountain chain. The main area of forecast uncertainty is how far west the moisture boundary can push each morning. This will likely heavily depend on how much convection can generate each evening, with resulting outflow boundaries being the significant driver of how far west said moisture can reach. All the while, southwesterly flow over NM will steadily weaken each day. This will result in less shear for thunderstorm activity to tap into to organize into stronger and more longer lived cells. Storm motion for any thunderstorms developing over eastern NM will also slow down as this steering flow weakens resulting in smaller and more potent wetting footprints later in the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Winds and overnight low level wind shear are the primary aviation weather hazards today through Monday. Winds will generally be strongest over the south central and northeastern areas of New Mexico, particularly over and near high terrain locations with the highest gusts occurring Monday. Gusts of 30 to 40 kt today will increase to 30 to near 50 kt on Monday. Winds will reduce in speed at sunset over lower elevation and valley locations tonight, but will remain gusty over many remaining areas through the night with low level wind shear present in the lowest few thousand feet of airspace. Areas of blowing dust will also develop, likely being more widespread with lower visibility (generally reaching MVFR status of 3 to 5 miles) on Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 148 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026 ...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE GROWING PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AND MONDAY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NM... Strengthening very dry southwesterly flow across the area today will continue the critical to extremely critical fire weather pattern. A deepening troughing pattern over the western CONUS will yield sustained southwesterly winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 mph over a majority of the state today, with the strongest winds of 25 to 35 mph gusting to 45 mph focused over northeastern NM. Widespread humidity falling <10% for 6 to 18 hours following an abysmally poor recovery this morning peaking at 15-20% over eastern will yield extremely critical conditions for the east-central and northeastern plains this afternoon. The Red Flag Warning for today thus remains on track. Monday sees even stronger southwesterly winds as the main jetmax associated with a storm system tracking W-E over southern CO and along the NM/CO border will yield another round of widespread critical to extremely critical conditions over the southeastern half to two-thirds of the state. Southwesterly to westerly winds of 15-25 mph will be widespread with the strongest 30-40mph gusting upwards of 50-60 mph focused along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Cooler temperatures and lesser westerly winds will push into western and northwestern NM during this time. These winds steadily back off from their peaks through the afternoon however. Overnight recoveries Monday morning remain poor over a significant portion of the middle Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains making it easy for another round of humidity falling <10% for 5-10 hours over the east-central plains. Despite forecast minimum humidity staying above local critical fire weather thresholds, the potential for strong winds gusting 40-55mph alongside ERCs approaching the 97th percentile and current extreme drought conditions, have elected to expand Monday`s Fire Weather Watch to include the Sangre de Cristo Mts. A cold front will bring a strong and sudden northerly wind shift through eastern NM Monday night, gusting to 30-40 mph at times along the TX border. However, cooler temperatures and higher humidity behind this cold front will bring an end to fire weather conditions, especially as winds subside later Tuesday morning. Thereafter, drier conditions and elevated fire weather will favor western NM while higher moisture will allow for increasing afternoon thunderstorm activity for the eastern plains each day Wednesday through the end of next week. The middle Rio Grande Valley could see some of this higher humidity allowing for higher overnight recoveries, but this will depend on how strong convection is over eastern NM can push outflow boundaries westward through the gaps of the central mountain chain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 81 50 68 38 / 0 5 30 0 Dulce........................... 75 41 63 29 / 0 0 50 0 Cuba............................ 75 43 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 76 42 67 33 / 0 0 5 0 El Morro........................ 72 42 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 77 42 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 76 43 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 78 49 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 74 45 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 78 42 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 83 43 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 68 38 57 29 / 0 0 50 0 Los Alamos...................... 74 52 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 77 44 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 72 44 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 65 35 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 68 33 61 26 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 75 43 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 74 44 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 82 46 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 77 49 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 81 47 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 82 55 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 84 54 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 86 49 82 44 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 85 53 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 87 50 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 84 53 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 86 48 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 85 52 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 86 49 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 81 55 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 84 54 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 89 55 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 77 52 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 79 52 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 78 50 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 81 42 78 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 76 48 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 79 49 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 78 49 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 81 56 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 74 51 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 78 42 72 30 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 81 42 74 33 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 83 45 77 35 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 77 48 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 87 52 82 37 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 82 51 78 39 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 90 56 87 45 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 87 55 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 94 58 90 46 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 92 55 89 47 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 94 56 91 49 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 91 55 88 47 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 95 56 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 86 55 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 81 53 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104>106-109- 121-123>126. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ104-106-109- 121>126. High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for NMZ212-214-215-223-227>229. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...52