Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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648 FXUS65 KABQ 040723 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 123 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 103 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Much drier and warmer conditions return today then a few gusty storms are possible over northeast New Mexico Saturday. Storm chances rise for central and eastern New Mexico Sunday through the middle of next week with locally heavy rainfall possible. - Temperatures will begin to climb above normal across central and western NM Saturday then continue through next week. Moderate to locally major heat risk will increase the risk for heat-related illnesses. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 103 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 An upper level trough that passed north of the region overnight will drag much drier air from AZ into NM today. PWATs fall below 0.50" over central and western NM with northwest breezes in the 15 to 25 mph range. Storm chances will be near-zero for most of the region with barely any cloud cover outside the higher terrain. A storm or two cannot be ruled out over far northeast NM. Max temps will warm closer to normal as well. The upper level trough exiting the Front Range will help to spawn some storms over eastern CO later today and tonight. These storms will force a convectively-aided boundary southwest into northeast NM for Saturday. Slightly better storm coverage is expected along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Downburst winds will be the main threat with this activity. Meanwhile, central and western NM will be even hotter with very low humidity. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 103 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Storms over northeast NM Saturday afternoon will help to force the convectively-aided surface boundary even farther southwest toward the central mt chain Saturday night. Low level moisture will build westward in the wake of this boundary while the H5 ridge axis begins to consolidate into a 594dm H5 high center over southwest NM Sunday. 700mb flow will also become more southerly by Sunday while a more well-defined theta-e ridge axis reorganizes across NM. PWATs are likely to increase closer to normal with this pattern for central and eastern NM. All model guidance has higher storm chances along and east of the central mt chain Sunday. The rest of next week will become increasingly hot while the H5 ridge builds to near 598dm (+2 stdev above climo) over central AZ thru Friday. The theta-e ridge axis continues to strengthen while draped from southwest to northeast thru central NM with PWATs near to slightly above normal. Slow storm motions from roughly north to south are expected with potential for locally heavy rainfall with any storm. Forecast uncertainty during this period includes the strength and placement of the H5 ridge over AZ and whether mid- level warming and too much subsidence limits convection. Max temps may approach Heat Advisory criteria beginning Tuesday thru late week for parts of central and western NM. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 103 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Storms that were lingering over central and eastern NM overnight have dissipated as drier air moves in from the west. Mid level cloud decks will also dissipate thru sunrise while some patchy fog and low cigs impact parts of eastern NM. Confidence on impacts at any particular terminal are low but the greatest chance based on the latest NBM will be near KROW and KTCC (<15% for MVFR). Dry air will continue advancing eastward Friday with clear skies for much of the day and slight northwest breezes. A storm of two with gusty winds cannot be ruled out around KCAO. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Dry air filtering into NM from AZ today will force min humidity to between 15 and 20% for the entire region on northwest breezes. Max temps will warm much closer to normal for early July. Saturday will be drier and hotter for central and western NM with min humidity between 10 and 15%. Winds will trend lighter. An outflow boundary entering northeast NM Saturday will help to fire up a few storms along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts before moving southeast across northeast NM. Gusty outflow winds will be the main threat with these cells. The boundary will be forced even farther southwest Saturday night with a better influx of low level moisture to the central mt chain. Greater storm coverage is likely along and east of the central mt chain Sunday with small footprints of heavy rainfall possible. The upper level high will begin to strengthen over southwest NM Monday then build northwest into northern AZ thru the end of next week. Low level moisture will slide northward under the high into more of central and eastern NM each afternoon. Daily rounds of slow- moving storms will develop over the central high terrain then move south and eastward into nearby valleys and plains. Some of this activity may produce heavy rainfall with burn scar flash flooding possible on any day. Northwest NM may remain mostly dry. Temps will climb above normal for the entire region with many lower elevation areas in the mid 90s to low 100s next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 89 57 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 85 44 89 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 84 53 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 85 49 90 50 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 82 52 88 55 / 0 0 5 5 Grants.......................... 86 52 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 83 53 88 56 / 5 0 10 10 Magdalena....................... 86 61 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 82 56 87 57 / 0 0 5 5 Reserve......................... 89 51 94 53 / 5 0 20 10 Glenwood........................ 93 56 98 59 / 10 5 10 5 Chama........................... 79 46 84 47 / 5 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 83 60 87 61 / 0 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 82 59 87 57 / 0 0 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 82 53 86 53 / 5 0 10 5 Red River....................... 73 46 77 45 / 10 5 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 77 39 80 40 / 5 0 20 10 Taos............................ 85 51 88 52 / 0 0 5 5 Mora............................ 81 51 85 50 / 0 0 20 10 Espanola........................ 90 58 95 58 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 85 61 89 62 / 0 0 5 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 88 59 92 60 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 67 95 68 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 64 96 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 64 98 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 65 97 66 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 94 62 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 93 63 98 64 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 94 61 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 94 64 98 65 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 94 62 97 63 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 88 63 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 93 64 97 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 96 69 98 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 59 89 58 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 86 60 90 60 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 85 56 90 55 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 53 92 52 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 82 57 86 57 / 0 0 5 10 Mountainair..................... 85 57 90 56 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 85 58 90 56 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 88 64 94 64 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 81 59 88 59 / 0 0 5 0 Capulin......................... 81 55 83 54 / 20 20 30 30 Raton........................... 85 55 88 53 / 10 10 20 20 Springer........................ 88 56 90 55 / 10 5 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 85 55 88 55 / 0 0 20 10 Clayton......................... 88 62 90 62 / 20 20 10 30 Roy............................. 86 60 88 59 / 10 10 10 20 Conchas......................... 93 64 95 65 / 5 5 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 90 62 93 62 / 0 0 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 91 64 93 65 / 0 0 5 20 Clovis.......................... 93 64 93 67 / 0 0 0 20 Portales........................ 95 64 95 67 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Sumner..................... 95 64 97 66 / 0 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 98 69 100 70 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 90 65 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 88 62 93 60 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42