586
FXUS65 KABQ 172344 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 543 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

- Numerous showers and storms today and Friday will increase the
  risk of flash flooding, particularly over recent burn scars and
  in northeastern New Mexico.

- Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and dangerous lightning could
  accompany any storms each day and a few storms may become severe
  in the northeast this afternoon and evening.

- A low to moderate risk of burn scar of flash flooding will
  persist into the early and middle part of next week despite a
  downtick in storm coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Thunderstorms are already underway over the Sangre De Cristo
Mountains and Sacramento Mountains this afternoon, where there is
currently a Flood Watch in effect and a Flash Flood Warning has
already been issued. Storm activity for the Ruidoso area will be
mainly during the middle part of the afternoon, with shower activity
tapering off before sunset. Low level upslope flow along eastern New
Mexico will continue to provide rich moisture for storm development
over the high terrain. The low clouds over eastern New Mexico from
this morning have all but eroded, with daytime heating quickly
destabilizing the environment. RAP model soundings indicate
precipitable water content of about 1.2 inches and MUCAPE between
1000 and 2000 J/Kg, allowing for very efficient rainfall rates of of
1 to 2 inches per hour. As a result there is high confidence for
life threatening impacts for burn scar flash flooding.

Conditions in northeast New Mexico are not only also primed for
heavy and efficient rainfall, but there is also a Marginal risk of
severe weather for areas along the Sangres and east towards the
Texas-New Mexico border. Storms are already producing rainfall rate
of half an inch to an inch per hour, which may lead to rapid rises
in streams and arroyos and flooding over low water crossings. Storms
over the Sangre De Cristo Mountains look to linger a little bit
later into the afternoon before moving off to the east at around
sunset. Lingering cloud cover over Colfax, Union, and Harding
counties may limit instability in the environment, but MUCAPE may
still reach as high as 3000 J/kg. With modest bulk shear of around
20 kts, these storms may get strong enough to produce large and
damaging hail and strong wind gusts.Thunderstorms will continue east
to the Texas border through midnight, which is when the Flood Watch
expires. Have opted to include Quay county in the watch for tonight
due to antecedent rainfall from last night (estimated between 2 and
5 inches) saturating the soils and up to another is inch possible
this evening. Overall most of northeast New Mexico will see between
0.25 and 0.5 inches of rainfall, but locally heavy amounts of 1 to 2
inches will create swift rises in stream and arroyos.

Tomorrow also looks to be a concerning day for the Ruidoso burn
scars area. New Mexico will find itself in between a strengthening
595 dm H5 high over the Texas Panhandle and a low moving north over
Baja California. This will once again provide a corridor for rich
moisture from both gulfs to funnel up into southern New Mexico. The
positioning of the low to the west may serve to usher in greater
Pacific moisture into the region, but it may also dry out the
environment with some WNW flow. Overall, PWATs in southern New
Mexico look to once again be in the 1.1 to 1.4 range, with moist
upslope flow converging over the Sacramento Mountains. Storm
activity will focus over the begging and middle part of the
afternoon. Hi-res model guidance is in pretty good agreement that
the Ruidoso area may get between 0.25 and 0.75 inches of rain.
More concerning , 3 hour QPF maxes from the HREF and NBM have up
to 2 inches for areas in and around the burn scar, which may
create dangerous flooding along the Rio Ruidoso. Drier westerly
flow looks to stymie convection for areas north of I-40 in western
New Mexico. Northeast New Mexico will see some scattered to
numerous showers, but coverage and amounts looks to be much less
than Thursday, so flood concerns are low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Heading into the weekend, the H5 high will continue to linger around
the TX-NM border at around 593 to 595 dm, raising temperatures in
the eastern plains to the upper 90s and near 100 for Roswell . The
low over Baja looks to finally eject into the Great Basin, shifting
winds more westerly throughout the region and brining in some drier
conditions, particularly for eastern New Mexico. Moist southerly
flow will continue to keep rain chances above 50% for southern areas
in the Gila and Sacramento Mountains. The Gila may benefit the most
form the Pacific moisture, but NE storm motions may be able to take
some showers into west-central and north central New Mexico.

PWATs heading into next week look to remain near normal for the Land
of Enchantment, and recent ensemble runs are showing that conditions
may not be drying out as much as previously thought. Monsoonal
moisture will continue to push north across New Mexico heading into
the middle of the week, creating scattered to numerous
thunderstorms, particularly for southern areas. Bumped up Pops a bit
for eastern areas during the afternoons to account for a mention of
storms due to recent guidance trends. Temperatures throughout the
period will be about average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms continue to develop and move
across much of New Mexico this evening. Gusty outflow winds, small
hail, and frequent lightning are all expected in any thunderstorm.
Highest confidence for TS at TAF sites this evening include KLVS and
KTCC. Other eastern and central TAF sites are more likely to see
outflow winds from surrounding thunderstorms, including KABQ and
KAEG, where an outflow recently pushed through around 23z. Storms
push into eastern New Mexico through the evening to overnight hours
tonight, likely exiting the area by 06-09z. VFR conditions very
likely to prevail, outside of isolated MVFR within thunderstorms.
Additional afternoon thunderstorms are likely across the higher
terrain tomorrow near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The threat of rapid fire spread will be minimal throughout the
period. Rich monsoonal moisture will create scattered to numerous
thunderstorms around the region for the next few days. Areas along
and east of the central mountain chain will see 0.25 to an inch of
rainfall over the next couple of afternoons. Some dryer westerly
flow may intrude into the region early this weekend, hindering
chances for storms in northern and central New Mexico. New
lighting starts will be possible with storms in western areas
where ERCs are still in the 75th and 90th percentiles. Northern
New Mexico may see some drier conditions early next week, but near
average monsoonal moisture will once again increase chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures look to remain near
average throughout the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  91  66  91 /  50  20  30  20
Dulce...........................  50  88  50  89 /  70  50  40  60
Cuba............................  57  85  59  85 /  70  50  50  60
Gallup..........................  53  87  56  85 /  50  40  40  50
El Morro........................  55  83  57  82 /  70  60  60  80
Grants..........................  55  88  58  86 /  70  60  50  70
Quemado.........................  56  83  60  82 /  70  70  70  90
Magdalena.......................  63  84  63  85 /  60  60  60  80
Datil...........................  55  82  58  81 /  60  80  60  90
Reserve.........................  54  90  56  87 /  50  70  60  90
Glenwood........................  58  94  61  93 /  40  70  50  90
Chama...........................  48  81  50  82 /  70  60  40  70
Los Alamos......................  60  81  62  83 /  70  50  40  70
Pecos...........................  57  83  59  85 /  60  60  30  60
Cerro/Questa....................  54  83  56  84 /  70  60  30  70
Red River.......................  45  74  47  74 /  70  70  30  80
Angel Fire......................  43  77  43  77 /  60  70  20  70
Taos............................  54  85  55  86 /  70  50  30  60
Mora............................  50  81  52  82 /  70  60  20  70
Espanola........................  61  91  62  92 /  70  40  30  50
Santa Fe........................  61  85  63  86 /  60  50  30  60
Santa Fe Airport................  60  88  61  90 /  60  40  30  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  91  70  92 /  70  50  50  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  93  68  94 /  70  40  40  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  95  68  96 /  60  40  40  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  94  69  94 /  70  40  40  50
Belen...........................  65  94  65  95 /  60  40  40  40
Bernalillo......................  66  94  68  95 /  70  40  40  50
Bosque Farms....................  64  94  65  95 /  60  40  40  40
Corrales........................  67  95  68  95 /  70  40  40  50
Los Lunas.......................  66  94  66  95 /  60  40  40  40
Placitas........................  64  90  66  91 /  60  40  40  50
Rio Rancho......................  66  94  68  95 /  70  40  40  50
Socorro.........................  68  95  68  95 /  60  50  50  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  86  61  87 /  60  50  40  60
Tijeras.........................  61  86  62  87 /  70  50  40  60
Edgewood........................  56  87  58  87 /  60  50  30  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  88  57  88 /  50  50  30  50
Clines Corners..................  57  82  59  82 /  50  50  20  40
Mountainair.....................  57  86  60  87 /  60  60  40  60
Gran Quivira....................  58  85  60  86 /  60  60  40  60
Carrizozo.......................  65  87  64  89 /  40  60  40  50
Ruidoso.........................  58  78  58  81 /  30  80  30  60
Capulin.........................  54  83  56  84 /  70  40  10  50
Raton...........................  53  86  55  87 /  70  50  10  60
Springer........................  55  89  57  89 /  70  40  10  50
Las Vegas.......................  55  85  57  86 /  60  50  20  50
Clayton.........................  62  89  66  92 /  60  10   5  10
Roy.............................  59  87  61  89 /  70  20  10  20
Conchas.........................  65  94  68  96 /  60  20   5  10
Santa Rosa......................  63  90  65  92 /  50  20  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  63  92  66  94 /  60  10   5   0
Clovis..........................  67  94  68  96 /  40   5   0   0
Portales........................  67  95  68  97 /  40   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  67  94  68  95 /  40  10   5   5
Roswell.........................  71  96  70  98 /  30  20   5   5
Picacho.........................  63  88  63  90 /  30  50  20  20
Elk.............................  61  86  60  88 /  30  60  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ214-215-227>232-
234.

Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...77