749
FXUS65 KABQ 162007
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
207 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
  favor the central mountain chain westward each day with a risk
  of lightning, small hail, gusty outflow winds, and localized
  flash flooding.

- There will be a low risk of flash flooding below the Ruidoso
  area burn scars today, then at least a moderate risk Friday and
  Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The latest water vapor loop shows a large and well-defined H5 low
centered near Midland, TX with several bands of vorticity rotating
counterclockwise around the feature. Some of the dry air that was
embedded along the Front Range yesterday has wrapped itself into
the low. A weaker inverted trough over central AZ is embedded
within the larger monsoon moisture plume stretching from northern
MX into the Great Basin. Forecasting will remain very challenging
thru early next week as these complex airmass features merge into
the monsoon plume reorganizing over the southern Rockies.

For the rest of today, showers and storms with locally heavy
rainfall will continue forming over the high terrain then move
south and west into nearby valleys and highlands thru the evening
(18Z KABQ PWAT is 0.91"). Steering flow is beginning to slow and
veer more northeast to southwest as easterly flow on the northern
edge of the H5 low enters southeast NM. Overall hi-res models and
ensemble CAMs remain consistent with showing additional showers
forming on the central mt chain tonight then drifting west into
the RGV thru the predawn hours. QPF is roughly 0.10-0.20" from
this activity overnight.

Friday and Saturday are still advertised as the most active days
across the region with PWATs increasing >1.1" in all areas while
the H5 low drifts northwest into far southeast NM. Deformation on
the northwest side of the H5 low along with abundant moisture on
southeast low level winds will allow storms to develop along the
central mt chain Friday. The 12Z HREF and REFS LPMM QPF shows the
heavier cells developing from around Ruidoso to Corona, Clines
Corners, and the southern Sangre de Cristo Mts, including the high
terrain of western NM (locally >1"). A Flood Watch is in effect
for the Ruidoso area burn scars Friday. Showers and storms are
shown lingering over eastern NM Friday night with better forcing
from the H5 low. Saturday looks similar to Friday but with the
higher NBM 90th percentile QPF mainly along and south of I-40
(locally >0.75"). Steering flow becomes more east-west as well.
Forecast confidence is low to moderate Saturday given how complex
the pattern is and the convection Friday will affect Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

By Sunday and Monday, a 594dm H5 high developing near northern CO is
likely to become the more dominant influence on the monsoon pattern
over the desert southwest. However, there are noteworthy differences
into early next week with how guidance handles the evolution of the
H5 low currently drifting into southeast NM. The location of the H5
low circulation and placement of the deeper moisture will impact the
coverage, intensity, and steering flow of showers and storms Sunday
and Monday. The remnants of Tropical Storm Elida in the eastern
Pacific are also shown moving northward toward the CA coast during
this period. The broader circulation across the region will become
more southeast to northwest by Tuesday and Wednesday while the H5
high drifts southeast toward TX. For now, the NBM median 48-hr
QPF Sunday and Monday favors the heavier rainfall along and west
of the central mt chain then even farther north and west Tuesday
and Wednesday. Temps are shown trending much warmer for eastern NM
with the H5 high strengthening to near 597dm over TX.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

SHRA/TS will continue developing over the high terrain thru this
afternoon. Storms will move south and west into nearby highlands
and valleys at 5-15KT. The stronger cells will produce outflow
wind gusts near 40KT with brief MVFR vsbys in heavy rainfall. A
brief lull is anticipated in the evening followed by more SHRA
tonight near the central mt chain, the RGV, and southeast NM thru
the predawn hours. Direct hits will produce brief MVFR vsbys.
There is a <15% chance of MVFR low cigs over southeast NM around
sunrise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

There is no critical fire weather expected for the next two weeks.
Showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall will develop over the
higher terrain each afternoon then move into nearby highlands and
valleys thru the evening. The highest storm chances are Friday thru
Sunday, especially over southern and western NM. Steering flow is
expected to be northeast to southwest thru Friday, east to west
Saturday thru Monday, then southeast to northwest Tuesday and
Wednesday. Minimum humidity will remain above 20% areawide with
good to excellent overnight recoveries and light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  89  61  90 /  10  40  40  10
Dulce...........................  49  85  47  88 /  40  60  40  30
Cuba............................  56  82  55  83 /  20  30  40  50
Gallup..........................  53  82  53  82 /  40  50  50  60
El Morro........................  54  79  54  78 /  50  40  40  70
Grants..........................  55  83  55  83 /  20  50  40  70
Quemado.........................  55  80  55  79 /  40  70  40  70
Magdalena.......................  62  83  62  82 /  30  50  50  70
Datil...........................  57  79  57  78 /  30  60  40  80
Reserve.........................  52  86  53  85 /  30  50  40  70
Glenwood........................  55  89  55  89 /  30  50  40  60
Chama...........................  48  78  47  81 /  60  80  50  40
Los Alamos......................  62  82  61  83 /  30  60  40  40
Pecos...........................  54  82  54  84 /  20  80  20  50
Cerro/Questa....................  54  79  54  82 /  30  70  30  30
Red River.......................  42  77  42  78 /  30  70  30  30
Angel Fire......................  41  75  41  78 /  30  70  40  30
Taos............................  52  82  51  85 /  30  60  30  30
Mora............................  51  79  52  81 /  20  70  30  40
Espanola........................  61  89  60  90 /  20  30  20  30
Santa Fe........................  61  83  60  84 /  20  50  20  60
Santa Fe Airport................  59  86  57  87 /  10  30  30  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  90  66  90 /  30  40  40  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  91  63  91 /  20  20  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  93  63  93 /  20  20  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  91  66  91 /  20  20  30  20
Belen...........................  63  93  62  92 /   5  20  30  30
Bernalillo......................  65  92  64  93 /  20  30  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  61  92  60  91 /  20  20  30  30
Corrales........................  66  93  65  93 /  30  20  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  63  92  62  91 /  10  20  30  30
Placitas........................  65  88  64  89 /  20  40  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  66  91  65  92 /  30  20  30  20
Socorro.........................  68  94  67  93 /  10  30  40  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  83  59  84 /  30  60  40  50
Tijeras.........................  58  86  57  88 /  20  60  50  50
Edgewood........................  55  86  54  88 /  20  60  40  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  87  52  88 /  10  60  30  50
Clines Corners..................  55  81  55  83 /  10  70  40  50
Mountainair.....................  57  85  55  86 /  20  60  50  60
Gran Quivira....................  58  83  57  84 /  20  70  50  60
Carrizozo.......................  63  86  63  86 /  20  50  30  50
Ruidoso.........................  55  78  56  79 /  20  80  30  80
Capulin.........................  52  81  53  83 /   5  20  20  10
Raton...........................  53  86  52  88 /  10  20  10  10
Springer........................  55  87  54  89 /  10  30  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  54  82  54  84 /  10  60  30  30
Clayton.........................  60  89  62  91 /   0  10  20   5
Roy.............................  58  84  58  86 /   5  40  30   5
Conchas.........................  63  92  63  94 /   5  10  30   5
Santa Rosa......................  62  87  61  89 /   5  30  30  10
Tucumcari.......................  64  92  64  94 /   5  20  20   0
Clovis..........................  62  89  63  91 /   5  10  30  10
Portales........................  63  90  63  92 /   5  10  30  10
Fort Sumner.....................  64  90  64  92 /   5  10  20   5
Roswell.........................  66  92  67  93 /   5  10  30  10
Picacho.........................  60  86  61  88 /  10  30  20  50
Elk.............................  56  84  57  85 /  10  40  30  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42