Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
967 FXUS65 KABQ 141144 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 544 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 537 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Flooding of small creeks, streams and arroyos, as well as low- lying areas, will be a concern where repeated rounds of precipitation occur through tonight. The flash flood risk will be minimal but as remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Raymond crosses the state, isolated flash flooding remains a concern, especially over the burn scars near Ruidoso. Elevated flows in main stem rivers across northwest New Mexico will continue. - There is a marginal risk for severe storms over much of central NM today and over much of north central NM on Wednesday. - There is a moderate chance (40-60%) for freezing temperatures across some of northern, western and portions of central New Mexico Friday and Saturday mornings. This would be the first freeze of the season for areas in the Estancia Valley, San Agustin Plains and areas near Reserve. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1202 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The record PWAT atmosphere over the region will trend down through Wednesday, but still be above normal as southerly winds in the lower boundary layer keep a stream of subtropical moisture flowing into the area. At the same time, a 545dam 500mb low is turning inland over central CA and will progress east into NV/UT on Wednesday. This pattern will provide sufficient forcing to take advantage of the above normal moisture, yielding rounds of showers and storms both Tue/Wed. The highest PoPs will be along the central mountain chain today and then over the northern mountains Wednesday, where orographic forcing will play a role. The SPC has included much of central NM, including the Albuquerque Metro, in a marginal risk for severe storms today and this fits well with the shear and instability combination being offered up by the 00Z NAM. The same goes for Wednesday, but the SPC outlook focuses more over the northern mountains and surrounding highlands in the marginal risk area. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1202 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The upper low over UT is forecast to move east-northeast toward the central/northern Rockies Wednesday night and will keep sufficient forcing over north central NM for a few showers and storms to persist overnight. PWATs will accelerate the downtrend Thursday as dry air aloft rounds the base of the upper low and spreads east across the southern Rockies and NM. Progressively drier air will overtake the region Thursday night into Friday, which will show up as larger diurnal temperature ranges and notably colder low temperatures from Friday morning through the weekend. There is a moderate chance (40-60%) that a number of locales will see the first freeze of the season Friday morning or Saturday morning, but that won`t include the Albuquerque Metro and will be limited to a handful of lower elevation locales north of I-40. An upper level ridge will move east across the Rockies and NM this weekend, bringing warmer daytime temperatures and progressively larger diurnal temperature ranges. The next upper level trough/low will approach from the west coast early next week, bringing the potential for windy conditions both ahead of and behind a Pacific cold front. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 A mixed bag of VFR and MVFR conditions prevail across northern and central NM this morning, with areas of IFR cigs impacting eastern NM. Improvement will be slow this morning, especially across eastern NM. Rounds of showers and storms will favor areas along/east of the central mountain chain this afternoon/evening, with impacts likely at KLVS and lower probabilities at KSAF and KTCC. Areas of MVFR cigs will likely redevelop across much of eastern and portions of central NM late this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the next seven days. A moisture loaded atmosphere remains in place over the area, with wet antecedent conditions, high humidity and good chances for wetting showers and storms through Wednesday. A notable drying trend will begin Thursday and continue through the weekend, with larger diurnal temperature ranges and lower minimum humidity. Vent rates will take a dive and be poor to fair across the area this weekend as an upper level ridge moves east across the Rockies and NM. Winds will pick back up and vent rates will improve early next week as a potent upper level trough/low approaches from the west coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 71 52 71 43 / 20 20 20 10 Dulce........................... 66 44 66 40 / 40 40 60 60 Cuba............................ 66 49 66 41 / 30 40 50 40 Gallup.......................... 70 43 69 34 / 10 0 5 5 El Morro........................ 68 46 69 38 / 10 10 10 0 Grants.......................... 71 48 73 39 / 20 20 20 10 Quemado......................... 69 47 71 38 / 10 5 10 0 Magdalena....................... 70 54 71 46 / 20 30 10 10 Datil........................... 68 48 71 40 / 20 20 10 10 Reserve......................... 69 47 71 39 / 20 10 10 0 Glenwood........................ 73 50 74 43 / 20 10 10 0 Chama........................... 61 42 60 38 / 50 40 60 60 Los Alamos...................... 65 52 65 49 / 50 60 60 60 Pecos........................... 63 49 63 46 / 80 70 50 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 64 48 64 46 / 50 40 40 50 Red River....................... 60 42 60 39 / 50 40 40 50 Angel Fire...................... 63 43 63 39 / 50 50 40 50 Taos............................ 67 48 67 46 / 50 50 40 50 Mora............................ 62 46 62 44 / 80 70 50 50 Espanola........................ 71 52 72 46 / 50 60 50 60 Santa Fe........................ 68 54 68 49 / 60 60 50 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 71 52 72 47 / 60 60 50 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 72 57 74 51 / 50 60 30 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 74 58 76 52 / 40 50 20 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 76 53 77 48 / 40 50 20 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 74 57 76 53 / 40 50 20 30 Belen........................... 76 58 78 52 / 30 40 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 75 55 76 51 / 50 60 30 40 Bosque Farms.................... 76 54 77 49 / 40 50 20 20 Corrales........................ 75 56 76 51 / 40 50 30 40 Los Lunas....................... 76 57 77 51 / 30 50 10 20 Placitas........................ 73 54 74 49 / 50 60 40 40 Rio Rancho...................... 74 56 75 52 / 40 50 30 40 Socorro......................... 76 59 78 53 / 30 50 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 69 51 71 47 / 50 60 40 40 Tijeras......................... 70 54 72 50 / 50 60 40 40 Edgewood........................ 69 51 71 48 / 60 60 40 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 70 50 72 47 / 70 60 40 30 Clines Corners.................. 66 49 66 47 / 70 70 40 40 Mountainair..................... 69 51 71 49 / 60 60 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 69 50 72 49 / 60 60 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 73 55 75 54 / 70 50 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 67 48 70 48 / 70 40 20 10 Capulin......................... 63 49 66 48 / 50 40 20 20 Raton........................... 66 51 68 49 / 50 40 20 30 Springer........................ 67 52 69 50 / 50 50 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 62 49 62 48 / 80 70 40 50 Clayton......................... 69 54 75 53 / 60 20 20 10 Roy............................. 65 51 67 51 / 70 50 20 20 Conchas......................... 73 55 74 55 / 70 50 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 70 53 70 53 / 60 40 30 20 Tucumcari....................... 77 55 77 55 / 60 20 20 20 Clovis.......................... 77 55 77 54 / 40 5 10 10 Portales........................ 78 54 79 55 / 40 5 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 76 55 75 55 / 50 20 20 20 Roswell......................... 80 59 79 58 / 30 10 10 10 Picacho......................... 73 53 73 53 / 50 20 10 10 Elk............................. 72 50 73 51 / 50 20 10 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11