498
FXUS65 KABQ 121928
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
128 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 128 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

- There is a high risk of burn scar flash flooding this weekend
  and a low chance of off-scar flash flooding with stronger storms
  that develop along and east of the Rio Grande Valley.

- Storms in central and eastern New Mexico have the potential to
  produce large hail and damaging wind gusts this afternoon and
  evening.

- The active monsoon pattern is expected to continue into next
  week becoming traditional mid and late week, keeping the threat
  of burn scar flash flooding moderate to high each day through
  the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Low clouds in the wake of last night`s and early morning showers and
storms have burned off across eastern NM as of 12:30 local time. A
backdoor front has pushed higher low level moisture all the way west
to the Continental Divide. Better daytime heating and instability is
allowing showers and storms to erupt across the northern and west
central mountains early this afternoon with slow motion to the
southeast into the nearby highlands and Rio Grande Valley late this
afternoon into the evening. A high probability of flash flooding is
expected on the HPCC burn scar and a Flash Flood Watch is in effect
until 9 PM to cover this risk. When looking at eastern NM and the
south central mountains, including Ruidoso, this morning`s low
clouds and higher stability behind the early morning shower and
storm activity will prevent really any shower and thunderstorm
development this afternoon. This is reflected in the latest high
resolution guidance. Looking specifically at Ruidoso for the
evening, showers and storms across the south central highlands and
lower RGV looks to potentially move into Ruidoso around 6 to 7 PM.
Now these storms will be running into the aforementioned stable
environment present across eastern NM helping to weaken the
activity. However, model guidance does show PWATS just under an inch
during the evening, so any storm that does try to get over the
Ruidoso area burn scars will be capable of heavy rainfall. For that
reason, kept the Flash Flood Watch in place for Ruidoso while adding
this reasoning in the text of the "Additional Details" section of
the watch product. Any shower and storm activity across south
central NM dissipates at around 9 to 10 PM local time.

Going into Sunday, the 596 dam monsoon upper high, centered just off
the coast of Southern CA, looks to build northeast across the Great
Basin and Arizona with the western extent of it reaching as far east
as the AZ/NM border. A moist airmass will remain in place along and
east of the Continental Divide with PWATs around 0.7 to 0.9 inches
across central NM and 1 to 1.3 inches across the eastern plains. The
PWATS are average across the RGV and slightly above average along
and east of the central mountain chain. Daytime heating and high
instability will help storms develop midday across the higher
terrain along and east of the Continental Divide slowly moving south
and east into the surrounding highlands and lower elevations during
the late afternoon and early evening hours. For the Ruidoso area and
the HPCC burn scars, these slow and erratically moving storms will
be capable of producing heavy rainfall rates of up to 3 inches an
hour resulting in flash flooding and debris flows on and downstream
of the burn scars. There will be upslope southeast flow across these
burn scars helping to provide the extra lift to keep these heavy
rainfall rates, as well as latch the storms over the burn scars for
several hours Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening. The HREF 6
hr mean QPF has 0.5 to 1 inch over the burn scars Sunday afternoon.
However, max 6 hour amounts show values of up to 2.5 inches over
both HPCC and the Ruidoso area burn scars. This is a very similar
setup and scenario to Tuesday`s catastrophic flooding across
Ruidoso, so individuals in the area should stay weather aware and
have multiple ways to receive warnings if they are issued. After
saying all of this, new Flash Flood Watches have been issued for
these areas containing the burn scars. Going to the evening, the
storms across the central mountain chain and nearby eastern
highlands coalesce into a line of storms as it moves into the east
central and southeast plains. HREF guidance is showing locally heavy
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across these areas through the
late evening. For that reason, the entire central mountain chain,
northeast, central and south central highlands have been included in
tomorrow`s Flash Flood Watch. Could see De Baca and Chaves County
added to this watch late this evening with the new forecast package,
but will let the evening shift take another look and reassess before
making this decision.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Any shower and thunderstorm activity across central and eastern NM
tapers off overnight with just some lingering clouds across
southeast NM Monday morning. The monsoon high remains centered off
the coast of southern CA on Monday with it extending westward to as
far east-northeast as western Kansas. Mid and upper level heights
show a weak disturbance moving over the northern Rockies among the
jet stream. This will result in shower and thunderstorm development
across the CO Rockies with some of this activity extending as far
south as the north central mountains in New Mexico. Additionally,
with this orientation of the monsoon high, shower and storm coverage
will favor the western and central mountains with storm motion to
the west-southwest. Global guidance and the NAM hint at an inverted
trough, possibly from Sunday evening`s convection, across south
central NM on the southern edge of the upper high Monday afternoon,
so this could help to enhance shower and thunderstorm coverage.

The monsoon high looks to weaken to 592 dam and be more centered
over northern AZ on Tuesday with guidance favoring diurnal shower
and thunderstorm activity over north central and western NM. The NAM
shows an inverted trough across West Texas with subsidence west of
this inverted trough axis helping to keep a cap on shower and
thunderstorm activity across much of eastern NM during the afternoon
and evening hours. Come Wednesday and Thursday, the upper high over
northern AZ fully breaks down due to a strong upper level trough
moving across the northern Rockies and Great Plains. In it`s place
is an upper low over Baja California. Southerly flow north and east
of this low combined with south-southeast flow on the western edge
of the broad Bermuda high over the southern US will result in a
typical monsoon setup with western and central NM favored Wednesday
afternoon and evening and all of the state on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A moist backdoor cold front that surged west thru the RGV last night
has become stationary near the Cont Divide. This boundary will serve
as the initiation point for storms after 1pm. Activity is likely to
develop along the central mt chain as well during this time. Storm
motions will be slow toward the south with additional development
expected on boundary collisions within the RGV after 5pm. Any direct
hits will be capable of brief MVFR vsbys in heavy rainfall, strong
outflow, small hail, and frequent lightning strikes. Storms may not
form over eastern NM until after 6pm given a conditionally unstable
airmass currently in place. However, by this evening, activity that
is rolling off the central mt chain and nearby highlands continue
across the plains as storm clusters and broken line segments thru
midnight. Another batch of patchy MVFR low cigs are possible over
eastern NM, especially from the Pecos River westward to the east
slopes of the central mt chain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Higher moisture has moved west to the Continental Divide today.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will favor central NM this
afternoon, central, southern and eastern NM Sunday, northern and
western and southern NM Monday, and northern and western NM Tuesday.
This is due to the monsoon high just off the southern CA coast
expanding west-northwest to as far east as the central Rockies early
this upcoming week. The monsoon high breaks down Wednesday with a
more traditional monsoon pattern expected for the state through the
end of this upcoming week. Any showers and storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding with urban areas
and burn scars being the most favored.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  97  65  96 /   0  10  10  20
Dulce...........................  46  91  46  89 /  10  60  40  70
Cuba............................  54  88  55  87 /  10  50  40  50
Gallup..........................  50  95  55  92 /   0  10  20  50
El Morro........................  53  91  55  87 /  10  30  50  70
Grants..........................  53  93  55  89 /  10  30  40  60
Quemado.........................  57  92  58  89 /  20  40  70  80
Magdalena.......................  60  89  60  85 /  30  50  60  60
Datil...........................  55  88  55  84 /  20  60  60  70
Reserve.........................  53  97  53  92 /  30  60  60  90
Glenwood........................  59 100  58  94 /  30  60  60  90
Chama...........................  47  83  46  82 /  20  70  40  70
Los Alamos......................  58  83  58  83 /  20  70  30  60
Pecos...........................  55  80  54  81 /  30  70  40  50
Cerro/Questa....................  51  82  51  84 /  30  70  30  60
Red River.......................  43  72  43  75 /  40  70  30  60
Angel Fire......................  39  75  38  76 /  30  70  30  50
Taos............................  49  85  50  86 /  30  60  30  50
Mora............................  49  78  49  79 /  30  80  30  50
Espanola........................  58  91  58  91 /  20  60  30  40
Santa Fe........................  59  83  58  84 /  30  70  40  50
Santa Fe Airport................  57  86  56  87 /  20  60  40  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  92  65  89 /  30  50  50  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  94  63  91 /  30  40  40  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  96  63  94 /  30  40  40  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  93  64  92 /  30  40  40  20
Belen...........................  61  96  61  92 /  30  30  50  20
Bernalillo......................  63  94  63  93 /  30  50  40  30
Bosque Farms....................  61  95  60  92 /  30  30  40  20
Corrales........................  64  96  63  94 /  30  40  40  30
Los Lunas.......................  62  95  62  92 /  30  30  50  20
Placitas........................  62  91  62  89 /  30  50  40  30
Rio Rancho......................  64  94  63  92 /  30  40  40  30
Socorro.........................  66  97  65  94 /  30  40  50  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  86  56  84 /  30  60  40  40
Tijeras.........................  59  88  58  85 /  30  50  40  40
Edgewood........................  54  87  53  85 /  30  60  40  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  87  52  85 /  30  60  40  30
Clines Corners..................  54  79  53  79 /  20  60  40  30
Mountainair.....................  55  86  54  83 /  40  60  50  40
Gran Quivira....................  57  85  55  81 /  30  60  50  40
Carrizozo.......................  62  88  60  84 /  20  60  50  50
Ruidoso.........................  56  79  55  76 /  20  70  40  70
Capulin.........................  51  78  51  80 /  30  40  20  10
Raton...........................  52  83  53  84 /  40  50  20  20
Springer........................  53  84  54  86 /  30  50  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  52  80  52  81 /  30  70  30  30
Clayton.........................  59  84  59  86 /   5  20  20   5
Roy.............................  56  80  57  82 /  20  40  30  10
Conchas.........................  62  87  63  88 /  10  40  30  10
Santa Rosa......................  61  84  60  84 /  10  50  40  20
Tucumcari.......................  59  85  60  86 /   5  20  30  10
Clovis..........................  63  87  63  87 /   5  30  50  20
Portales........................  63  88  63  88 /   5  30  50  20
Fort Sumner.....................  64  88  63  87 /   5  40  40  10
Roswell.........................  68  90  67  88 /  10  30  40  20
Picacho.........................  62  85  61  83 /  10  50  40  40
Elk.............................  59  83  58  81 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-226-229.

Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
NMZ212-214-215-221>224-226-229-233-239.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...42