Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
907 FXUS65 KABQ 261124 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 524 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 511 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 - Moderate heat risk will impact the lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico today, then the lower elevations of the Rio Grande Valley westward Sunday. Cooler temperatures are forecast next week. - After a downtick in storm coverage this weekend, monsoon moisture will begin to spread northward over New Mexico again on late Sunday into Monday. Then, monsoon moisture will surge over the forecast area during the first half of the coming work week with locally heavy rainfall daily, as well as the potential for flash flooding mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1127 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level trough along the CA coast steering dry southwesterlies over the region and into NM. This is already reflected in surface dewpoint temperatures that are 10 to 15 degrees lower than 24hrs ago across western NM. The combination of lower PWATS and a ridge strengthening over the area in the mid levels of the atmosphere will lead to even lower coverage of daytime heating triggered convection today. The latest NAM is advertising dCAPE values in excess of 2,000J/kg along the Continental Divide this afternoon, where a few virga showers or dry storms may produce strong and erratic wind gusts. There is also a moderate heat risk for portions of the RGV and southeast/east central plains this afternoon where highs will be 2-5 degrees above average. The mid level ridge axis, extending westward from the large upper high over the southeast US, is forecast to strengthen through Sunday and will bring even hotter temperatures with more lower elevation areas being impacted by a moderate heat risk. Otherwise, Sunday will be similar to Saturday in terms of a lack of convection, although chances will increase for the Ruidoso area as low level moisture begins to trend up with the ridge axis shifting north some. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1127 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 PWATs will be back on the uptrend from Sunday night through Tuesday as the mid level ridge axis shifts north and an easterly wave moves northwest from MX. PWATs will increase from south to north and generally be above normal most areas by Tuesday. PoPs and flash flood potential will trend up from Monday to Tuesday as a result. By Tuesday, a traditional Monsoon synoptic setup will be in place, with an upper high near Ark-La-Tex and an upper level trough along the CA coast allowing a well developed Monsoon moisture plume to stand up over central/western NM. Look for more of the same on Wednesday, although the upper high will move west to over west TX. Tue/Wed look to be peak days for thunderstorm coverage and flash flood potential. The upper high will continue on a westward journey Thu/Fri to over southern NM. PWATs will trend down during the late week period and storms will favor the northeast quarter thanks to a backdoor front providing some forcing. Temperatures will trend down below average from early to mid week due to added cloud cover and rain-cooling, but then trend back closer to average by the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period with mostly light winds. Very low probabilities of thunderstorm impacts at KROW and KTCC this afternoon/evening, with strong/erratic wind gusts being the primary aviation weather hazard. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. After a break from storms this weekend, humidity and chances for wetting rain will be back on the upswing from early through mid week with a Monsoon moisture surge forecast. Chances for wetting storms will peak Tue/Wed, then trend down toward the end of the week as the upper high moves west into southern NM and cuts off the Monsoon moisture plume. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 91 57 94 62 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 88 46 90 49 / 10 0 5 10 Cuba............................ 88 55 90 58 / 10 0 5 10 Gallup.......................... 88 48 91 53 / 10 0 5 10 El Morro........................ 85 53 87 56 / 10 0 10 10 Grants.......................... 89 51 91 56 / 10 0 10 10 Quemado......................... 87 54 89 58 / 10 0 20 20 Magdalena....................... 88 60 89 62 / 10 0 10 20 Datil........................... 86 53 87 58 / 10 0 20 20 Reserve......................... 91 54 93 57 / 10 0 20 20 Glenwood........................ 95 59 97 62 / 5 0 20 20 Chama........................... 81 47 84 50 / 10 0 10 10 Los Alamos...................... 85 61 86 62 / 10 0 10 10 Pecos........................... 87 56 88 57 / 0 0 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 51 85 54 / 5 0 10 10 Red River....................... 75 41 76 43 / 10 5 10 10 Angel Fire...................... 78 29 79 38 / 10 5 20 10 Taos............................ 86 51 88 55 / 0 0 10 10 Mora............................ 83 51 83 52 / 5 5 20 10 Espanola........................ 92 58 94 60 / 5 0 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 87 59 89 62 / 0 0 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 58 92 60 / 0 0 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 67 94 68 / 5 0 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 68 95 69 / 5 0 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 60 97 63 / 5 0 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 65 96 68 / 5 0 5 10 Belen........................... 95 63 97 66 / 5 0 5 20 Bernalillo...................... 95 63 96 65 / 5 0 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 95 60 96 64 / 5 0 5 10 Corrales........................ 95 64 96 66 / 5 0 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 95 62 96 65 / 5 0 5 10 Placitas........................ 91 63 93 64 / 5 0 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 94 64 95 67 / 5 0 10 10 Socorro......................... 97 66 98 68 / 10 0 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 87 59 88 60 / 5 0 10 20 Tijeras......................... 88 61 90 62 / 5 0 10 20 Edgewood........................ 88 56 90 58 / 5 0 10 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 53 91 56 / 5 0 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 85 58 86 58 / 5 0 10 20 Mountainair..................... 88 58 89 58 / 5 0 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 87 58 88 58 / 5 0 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 91 64 89 63 / 10 5 30 20 Ruidoso......................... 84 55 82 53 / 20 10 40 20 Capulin......................... 85 52 86 56 / 10 10 10 10 Raton........................... 89 52 90 56 / 10 5 10 10 Springer........................ 91 52 92 56 / 10 5 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 87 54 87 55 / 0 0 20 20 Clayton......................... 91 63 93 64 / 5 5 5 10 Roy............................. 88 58 89 60 / 0 0 5 20 Conchas......................... 96 65 96 66 / 0 0 5 20 Santa Rosa...................... 94 62 93 64 / 0 0 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 93 65 93 65 / 5 5 5 20 Clovis.......................... 97 67 95 67 / 10 5 10 20 Portales........................ 97 67 95 66 / 10 10 10 20 Fort Sumner..................... 96 67 94 67 / 0 0 10 20 Roswell......................... 100 70 97 70 / 5 5 20 20 Picacho......................... 92 63 90 62 / 10 5 20 20 Elk............................. 88 61 87 59 / 20 10 30 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11