655
FXUS65 KABQ 212043
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
243 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 239 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain
  westward through Wednesday with a risk of lightning, heavy rain,
  localized flooding, gusty outflow winds, and small hail.

- The greatest risk for isolated flash flooding will focus along
  and west of the central mountain chain through Wednesday, as
  well as the Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Moderate to major heat risk will afflict lower elevations of
  central and eastern New Mexico during the latter half of the
  week into the weekend where highs climb back into the 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Water vapor imagery shows an impressive closed Low over southwest
New Mexico that is dragging deep, subtropical northward with it.
Showers with a few storms have been occurring since early this
morning and afternoon destabilization has increased the coverage of
storms. Rainfall rates today will be very efficient for the desert
southwest, with localized rates as high as 2"/hour. Furthermore,
areas including Gallup and Farmington could see repeated rounds
of storms with heavy rainfall rates slowly rotating around the
north side of the Low. Storms will likely continue into the
evening hours as the forcing from the disturbance shifts
northward. While severe weather is not of huge concern with this
setup, wet microbursts could create very localized damaging
outflow wind gusts in the western half of the state this afternoon
and evening.

The disturbance over southwest NM today will continue its trek
northward into the Four Corners area Wednesday as moisture continues
to surge northward. This will result in different storm motions than
today, with storms generally moving from south to north. While many
of the same areas across western NM still have high rain chances,
the pattern change should result in different areas getting hit
compared to previous days. This flow direction is favorable for the
Ruidoso area burn scars as well so a Flash Flood Watch was issued
for that area for Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The upper high over the TX Panhandle will move into southern NM
on Thursday, while the aformentioned disturbance rotates around it
into Colorado. Showers and storms will focus over the northern
mountains on Thursday, with much less coverage underneath the
ridge thanks to mid-level warming and drier air working its way
in from the east. A few severe storms could develop with updrafts
that roll off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains where there will be
ample instability. The center of the ridge will then setup over
central NM on Friday and Saturday, with moisture recycling around
it. Moisture levels will be near seasonal normals, but flash
flooding is a concern considering the slow and erratic storm
motions over the high terrain, including the Sacramento Mountains.
500 mb heights between 596-598 dam should help to limit
instability somewhat, but hot afternoon temps and PWATs between
1-1.25" could counteract this.

Heat will also become a concern late week into the weekend,
especially across the eastern plains where highs will reach into the
low 100s each day. Overnight lows will be above average as well (low
to mid-70s) so there will not be significant relief from the heat at
night. High temps will be pushing 100F along the Rio Grande Valley
as well, including in Albuquerque so heat risk concerns will also
extend into central NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Scattered showers and storms will favor the western half of New
Mexico today between 18z and 03z. Gusty outflow winds up to 35 KT
and small hail could occur with stronger storms. While brief MVFR
conditions may occur with persistent storms, VFR conditions will
prevail. Storms will taper off after 03z, but a few could linger
as late as 09z near the AZ border.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next
seven days. Scattered to widespread storms will continue to focus
over the western NM today and again on Wednesday, with coverage
shifting to northern NM on Thursday. The center of the ridge will
then shift over central NM Friday into the weekend, resulting in
scattered slow-moving showers and storms that will favor the high
terrain each afternoon and the surrounding lower elevations during
the late afternoons and evenings. Temperatures will trend hotter the
next few days, particularly in eastern NM where highs will be in the
low 100s each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  89  66  90 /  70  30  70  10
Dulce...........................  55  87  55  87 /  70  60  70  50
Cuba............................  58  84  59  86 /  50  20  50  20
Gallup..........................  56  83  58  87 /  50  50  50  20
El Morro........................  56  80  57  84 /  50  70  50  20
Grants..........................  59  84  59  88 /  40  70  40  30
Quemado.........................  57  81  58  85 /  40  60  30  30
Magdalena.......................  63  84  64  87 /  30  20  10  30
Datil...........................  57  79  59  83 /  40  70  20  20
Reserve.........................  55  85  57  90 /  50  40  20  20
Glenwood........................  56  90  60  95 /  60  30  20   5
Chama...........................  53  81  53  81 /  50  60  60  70
Los Alamos......................  64  84  64  86 /  40  20  30  40
Pecos...........................  57  86  59  88 /  40  30  40   0
Cerro/Questa....................  56  85  57  84 /  10  20  20  50
Red River.......................  48  76  49  76 /  10  30  20  40
Angel Fire......................  44  80  46  82 /  10  70  50  10
Taos............................  57  87  58  88 /  10  30  30  20
Mora............................  55  84  56  87 /  30  30  20  10
Espanola........................  66  92  67  93 /  30  10  20  30
Santa Fe........................  62  86  63  88 /  40  20  30   5
Santa Fe Airport................  61  88  62  91 /  40  20  30   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  91  67  95 /  40  20  20   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  92  69  95 /  30  10  20   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  95  68  98 /  30  10  20   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  93  69  95 /  30  10  30   5
Belen...........................  65  94  67  97 /  20  10  20   0
Bernalillo......................  66  93  68  96 /  40  20  30   5
Bosque Farms....................  63  93  65  96 /  30  10  20   0
Corrales........................  66  94  68  97 /  40  10  30   5
Los Lunas.......................  63  94  65  97 /  20  10  20   0
Placitas........................  66  89  67  92 /  40  30  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  67  93  68  96 /  40  10  30   5
Socorro.........................  69  95  71  99 /  20   5   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  85  62  89 /  30  40  20   0
Tijeras.........................  61  86  63  90 /  30  40  20   0
Edgewood........................  59  88  59  91 /  30  20  20   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  90  55  93 /  20  20  10   0
Clines Corners..................  58  85  59  88 /  20  20  10   0
Mountainair.....................  59  88  60  91 /  20  20   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  59  86  61  90 /  20  10   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  65  87  67  92 /  20  50  10   0
Ruidoso.........................  59  81  60  86 /  20  60  20  20
Capulin.........................  58  88  59  91 /  10   5  10  30
Raton...........................  56  92  57  94 /  10  10  20  30
Springer........................  59  93  59  96 /  10  10  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  58  87  58  90 /  20  20  20   0
Clayton.........................  66  97  67 100 /  10   0   5   5
Roy.............................  63  91  64  94 /  10   0   5   5
Conchas.........................  68 100  69 103 /  10   0   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  65  95  67  98 /  10   0   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  70 102  71 104 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  69 100  69 102 /   5   0   0   0
Portales........................  70 101  70 103 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  69  99  69 102 /   5   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  72 101  71 104 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  65  93  65  97 /  10  10   5   5
Elk.............................  62  89  61  93 /  10  10   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-202-205-208-
209.

Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

Flood Watch Wednesday afternoon for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16