356
FXUS65 KABQ 052330
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
530 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 434 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall may create localized flash
  flooding across central and eastern New Mexico through
  Saturday. Areas on and downstream of burn scars, including the
  Ruidoso area, will have the highest risk.

- Isolated light showers and dry thunderstorms over parts of west
  central New Mexico Friday and Saturday afternoon may result in
  strong and erratic gusty winds, dry lightning, and risk of new
  fire starts.

- Mostly dry and and seasonably hot conditions next week with a
  moderate risk for heat-related illnesses across the Rio Grande
  Valley and eastern New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A well defined upper low can be seen over Chihuahua Mexico and far
West Texas this afternoon. Higher moisture (PWATs greater than 0.60
inches) across southern, central and eastern NM has resulted in
isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development across the
southern and central mountains early this afternoon with a slow
drift south-southwest into nearby lower elevations across central NM
this afternoon and evening. A secondary area of scattered
thunderstorms is developing across the Permian Basin in southeast NM
and far West Texas near the upper low circulation. Any storm across
south central and southeast NM will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall with localized flash flooding concerns. Drier showers and
storms across west central NM could produce dry lightning with
little to rainfall reaching the surface. Dry and hot across
northwest and far west central NM near an upper high centroid over
the Navajo Nation.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist across
the Permian Basin and lower Pecos River Valley of southeast NM and
far West Texas tonight into Saturday morning as the upper low moves
northeast over Midland to eventually Lubbock come midday Saturday.
Lingering moisture in place (PWATs around 0.6 to 1.1 inches),
deformation between the upper level ridge axis over far western NM
and the aforementioned upper low. and daytime heating will result in
scattered to numerous thunderstorm development across the northern
and south central mountains midday moving south-southeast into the
adjacent central and eastern highlands and lower elevations Saturday
afternoon and early evening before dissipating around sunset due to
loss of daytime heating. Like today, a few drier showers and storms
across west central New Mexico with dry lightning strikes and little
to no rainfall reaching the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Upper level ridging moves over the state Sunday with drier air of
PWATS between 0.3 to 0.6 inches in place. This will result in dry
and hot conditions areawide with some breezy west winds across
northwest and far west central NM. The upper high shifts to over the
Texas Monday as an upper level trough enters the Pacific coast.
Remaining hot with breezy southwest winds across far western NM due
to strengthening upper level flow between the upper level trough and
high. Some mid level moisture getting pulled up between will result
in some high based showers with some gusty and erratic winds across
west central NM, the Jemez and Tusas Mountains and nearby lower
elevations. For Tuesday and beyond next week, long term ensemble
cluster guidance vary on how far south this trough digs across the
Intermountain West. A shallower more broad trough will result in
drier westerly flow across more of the state preventing higher
moisture moving in from the south and southeast. A deeper
trough/upper low just west of the state will help pull subtropical
moisture north into the state resulting in some thunderstorm
development favoring the higher terrain. Regardless, high
temperatures look to be seasonably hot during this time with a
moderate risk for heat related illnesses across the RGV and eastern
NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 434 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Scattered and showers and storms will favor the central mountain
chain and southeastern NM this evening, with coverage waning in
both coverage and intensity 00Z through 06Z. Gusty outflow
boundaries will continue to be a concern, including along the RGV
where gusty southeast winds will persist through at least 03Z.

Saturday`s crop of showers and storms will favor the northern
mountains with north to south storm motion throughout the
afternoon. PROB 30s where included at sites along the RGV due to
the high likelihood of gusty outflows, even though the threat of
storms over terminals is low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A stray to isolated dry thunderstorm across the west central
mountains with wetter scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
southwest and central mountains and adjacent eastern highlands and
east central and southeast plains this afternoon and Saturday
afternoon. Drier thunderstorms across west central New Mexico will
be capable of producing dry lightning and gusty winds with
thunderstorms elsewhere capable of producing locally heavy rainfall,
small hail and gusty winds. This weekend, breezy to locally gusty
west winds across far western New Mexico combined with minimum
relative humidity values in the upper single digits will result in
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Drier westerly
winds and hot conditions areawide Sunday. Dry and breezy southwest
winds combined with low relative humidity values in the single digits
across far western NM will result in near critical to critical fire
weather conditions Monday and Tuesday. Some mid level moisture
getting pulled up between will result in some high based showers
with some gusty and erratic winds across west central NM, the Jemez
and Tusas Mountains and nearby lower elevations.  Wetter shower and
thunderstorm development could return Tuesday with higher terrain
areas being favored but overall confidence is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  95  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  45  90  45  86 /   0  10   0   0
Cuba............................  52  87  54  85 /   5  10   0   0
Gallup..........................  50  90  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  51  85  52  83 /   5   0   0   0
Grants..........................  51  90  55  88 /  10   5   5   0
Quemado.........................  54  86  52  84 /   5   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  57  86  60  86 /  30  20  10   0
Datil...........................  53  84  56  83 /  10   5   5   0
Reserve.........................  49  91  48  89 /   5   5   5   0
Glenwood........................  51  96  51  94 /  10   0   0   0
Chama...........................  43  82  43  79 /   5  20   5   0
Los Alamos......................  57  83  57  84 /   5  40  10   0
Pecos...........................  49  83  50  85 /  10  40  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  50  83  51  84 /  10  40  10   0
Red River.......................  42  73  43  73 /   5  50  10   0
Angel Fire......................  41  77  42  79 /   5  60  10   0
Taos............................  48  85  48  86 /   5  30  10   0
Mora............................  49  81  49  84 /  10  60  10   0
Espanola........................  55  92  55  92 /   5  20   5   0
Santa Fe........................  56  85  56  87 /  10  20   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  54  88  54  90 /   5  20  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  92  64  93 /   5   5   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  59  93  61  94 /   5   5   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  96  61  96 /   5   5   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  60  94  62  94 /   5  10   5   0
Belen...........................  56  95  60  95 /  10   0  10   0
Bernalillo......................  60  94  62  94 /   0   5   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  55  94  58  95 /   5   0   5   0
Corrales........................  60  95  62  95 /   5  10   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  56  94  60  95 /  10   0   5   0
Placitas........................  61  90  62  91 /   0   5   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  60  94  62  94 /   5  10   5   0
Socorro.........................  61  96  65  97 /  30  10  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  86  58  86 /   5  10   5   0
Tijeras.........................  55  87  57  88 /   5  10  10   0
Edgewood........................  52  87  54  89 /   5  30   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  88  50  91 /  10  30   5   0
Clines Corners..................  51  82  54  87 /  20  30  10   0
Mountainair.....................  50  86  54  89 /  20  10   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  50  84  56  88 /  20  10  20   0
Carrizozo.......................  57  86  61  91 /  20  10  20   0
Ruidoso.........................  53  79  57  84 /  30  30  10   0
Capulin.........................  48  80  48  86 /   5  30  20   0
Raton...........................  50  86  49  92 /   5  40  10   0
Springer........................  49  86  50  93 /   5  30  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  50  82  50  88 /  20  50  10   0
Clayton.........................  56  85  54  94 /   5   5  10   5
Roy.............................  52  84  52  91 /  10  20  40   0
Conchas.........................  58  90  58  97 /   5  10  30   0
Santa Rosa......................  55  87  55  95 /  10  20  30   0
Tucumcari.......................  59  89  59 100 /   5   5  10   0
Clovis..........................  59  84  58  97 /  10  20   5   0
Portales........................  59  85  58  98 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  57  88  57  98 /  10  10  10   0
Roswell.........................  60  89  61 100 /  20   0   5   0
Picacho.........................  55  86  57  94 /  20  20  20   0
Elk.............................  52  84  56  92 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...16