Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
472 FXUS65 KABQ 092013 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 213 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 202 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - An abnormally strong plume of moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla and another tropical system early next week will bring daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly along and west of the central mountain chain over the next 7 days. - Marginal to slight risks of excessive rainfall threatening flash flooding mainly over portions of western NM will present each day through the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 The 592 dm H5 high pressure over Texas continues to amplify its reach over the intermountain west. Meanwhile, the Pacific low currently off the coast of Cascadia is beginning its approach to the Oregon shores, where it will eventually join the main synoptic flow and bring a digging trough into the central Rockies. The current synoptic set up, with a high to our east and and an expansive low pressure system to our west, is creating a corridor for rich subtropical moisture to make its way north into the Desert Southwest. Some of this moisture is even of tropical origin, as tropical storm Priscilla will continue moving north and dissipate over Baja California, where southerly flow will continue to pump in some anomalously high moisture for this time of year. However, it appears that the influence of the high over the Texas plains will keep most shower activity along the continental divide and west, with Arizona getting the brunt of the thunderstorm activity for the next couple of days. So far this afternoon scattered to broken mid and upper level cloud cover has been streaming in from the southwest, bringing in some light showers into far west-central New Mexico. Lift indices for today look unfavorable, so with meager instability and weak forcing aloft, most shower and storm activity looks to be orographically forced along the western high terrain. Expanded Pops around the Four Corners, where a few tenths may fall this afternoon. A few light showers may develop over the northern half of the central mountain chain, only amounting to a few hundredths to a tenth. Modeled precipitable water content looks to climb to about an inch here at Albuquerque and about 1.1 to 1.2 in the Four Corners for Friday, which would be near record for this time of year. Persistent cloud cover looks to limit instability once again, but there could be some better ascent aloft as the approaching Pacific trough begins to introduce some diffluent flow over northern Arizona. In any case, rain rates don`t appear to be too concerning, the main thing to pay attention to regarding flooding impacts will be the development of multiple training storms from southwest to northeast along western New Mexico. Surging moisture looks to create bursts of storms throughout the afternoon and into Friday night in the northwest corner of the state. Have opted not to got with a Flood Watch like our surrounding neighbors as it seems the heavier rain will remain north near the colorado border and west over Arizona. Rainfall totals look to be spread out over several hours, with locally heavier amounts over the Chuska and Tusas mountains. Outside of western and northern NM, most areas will be pretty much precipitation free, with near average temperatures heading into the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 As Saturday afternoon rolls around, the Pacific low will have opened up into a trough and digging into the Great Basin, lowering heights over New Mexico and squashing the H5 high over Texas. Better forcing should allow for more numerous and heavier storms along the western half of New Mexico. Three day rainfall totals through Sunday actually decreased a tad with this forecast package. Three-day accumulations of 1 to 1.5 inches over the Four Corners and Tusas mountains may create minor flooding impacts. 90th percentile rainfall amounts show higher accumulations of 2 to 2.5 inches, particularly over the Tusas mountains. Several rivers and streams may see rises of 2 to 5 feet, however, they are not expected to surpass minor flood thresholds. Storm activity will spread east into the Rio Grande Valley and central mountain chain by late Saturday. Would not be surprised a couple of flash flood warning may be issued for repeated bands of rainfall for parts of northwest NM. WPC has put out a slight risk of excessive rainfall for areas along and west of the Continental Divide and a marginal for areas east towards the central mountain chain. Strong and erratic wind gusts will be a threat with any thunderstorm, but overall winds throughout the region look to be a steady 10 to 15 knots. Shower activity could continue into the late night hours on Saturday and into the early morning hours on Sunday as the main trough axis begins to push through the central Rockies. Drier westerly flow behind the front will lower precipitation chances through the region for Sunday afternoon. Increased wind speeds into the 20 to 30 mph range for the northeast highlands and plains, as downsloping looks to create some breezy conditions. Higher (50%) rain chances will remain mainly for the southwestern high terrain where PWATs will still be above average. That same central Rockies trough will then push a backdoor cold front through northeast New Mexico on Monday. This looks to set up a boundary along central New Mexico where thunderstorms look to develop during the afternoon. There is still some uncertainty regarding how much tropical moisture and cloud cover may make it up into New Mexico, but current ensembles are favoring the New Mexico bootheel as the main area of concern for heavy rain. However, scattered showers will extend throughout the state, with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.1 to 1 inch. Monday could also be the first day that the Ruidoso area burn scars once again receive some precipitation, increasing the threat of burn scar flash flooding. Continuing into the middle of the week, rich and anomalous moisture will keep streaming into New Mexico, allowing for scattered shower activity to develop on Tuesday and Wednesday as well. Overall, a wet pattern for mid October, with 7 day rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches in some parts of western New Mexico. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Broken mid-level cloud cover at most sites to the west of the central mountain chain. Vicinity showers will affect KFMN and KGUP throughout the afternoon. A brief thunderstorm may also affect both locations during the later part of the afternoon and early evening. Low confidence for a brief shower to develop over the Sandias and over the Sangre de Cristo mountains, possibly affecting KABQ and KSAF. Ceilings then look to become MVFR at KFMN overnight, persisting into the early morning hours. Winds will be predominantly from the south this afternoon, with some stronger 15 to 20 kt wind gusts for sites out east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum for the forecast period. Minimum relative humidity values only bottom out at around 30% on the driest days. Anomalously high moisture will create scattered to numerous showers through next week, favoring western and central New Mexico. Winds will be mainly out of the south but shift west on Sunday, with stronger 15 to 20 kt gusts in northeast areas. A backdoor front will push through the area on Monday, cooling temperatures, and invigorating shower activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 76 59 72 58 / 30 60 70 80 Dulce........................... 74 47 69 47 / 30 60 70 70 Cuba............................ 71 50 71 51 / 30 30 40 50 Gallup.......................... 72 52 72 51 / 40 50 50 70 El Morro........................ 69 51 71 51 / 40 30 50 60 Grants.......................... 72 50 72 52 / 30 30 50 50 Quemado......................... 72 50 74 53 / 20 20 30 40 Magdalena....................... 72 53 72 57 / 20 5 10 10 Datil........................... 69 49 70 52 / 20 10 20 30 Reserve......................... 77 49 80 52 / 30 10 20 30 Glenwood........................ 83 54 84 56 / 30 10 10 30 Chama........................... 69 45 65 45 / 20 40 60 60 Los Alamos...................... 69 52 70 54 / 20 20 20 30 Pecos........................... 71 49 71 51 / 20 10 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 72 49 71 50 / 10 10 20 30 Red River....................... 64 41 62 43 / 10 10 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 68 34 67 37 / 20 5 20 10 Taos............................ 74 47 73 49 / 10 10 20 20 Mora............................ 70 44 70 46 / 30 10 20 10 Espanola........................ 77 52 78 55 / 20 20 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 71 53 72 55 / 20 10 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 73 52 74 53 / 20 10 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 75 60 76 62 / 10 10 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 77 58 78 60 / 10 10 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 80 57 80 59 / 10 10 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 77 58 78 61 / 10 10 10 20 Belen........................... 80 55 80 58 / 10 5 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 78 57 79 59 / 10 10 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 79 54 80 57 / 10 10 10 20 Corrales........................ 79 58 80 60 / 10 10 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 79 56 80 58 / 10 10 10 20 Placitas........................ 73 56 74 58 / 10 10 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 77 57 79 59 / 10 10 10 20 Socorro......................... 81 58 81 61 / 10 5 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 70 52 70 53 / 10 10 10 20 Tijeras......................... 71 54 72 56 / 10 10 10 20 Edgewood........................ 72 48 73 51 / 10 5 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 74 46 75 49 / 10 5 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 70 48 69 51 / 10 5 10 5 Mountainair..................... 72 49 72 53 / 10 5 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 72 48 73 52 / 10 5 5 5 Carrizozo....................... 75 53 75 56 / 5 0 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 68 48 68 51 / 10 5 10 5 Capulin......................... 74 48 72 51 / 5 0 5 0 Raton........................... 77 47 75 50 / 5 0 10 5 Springer........................ 77 48 77 52 / 5 0 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 71 48 70 50 / 20 5 10 5 Clayton......................... 80 55 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 75 52 74 55 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 80 54 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 76 52 76 56 / 5 0 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 80 54 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 81 56 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 81 56 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 78 55 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 82 58 81 59 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 77 52 77 54 / 5 0 5 0 Elk............................. 75 50 75 51 / 10 0 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...25