237
FXUS65 KABQ 242327 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
527 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025

- The risk for heat-related illnesses will continue over Chaves
  County through the early evening with high temperatures reaching
  near 100 degrees around Roswell.

- Gulf moisture will move into the state in the week ahead with
  daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from the
  central mountain chain eastward. Some gusty and dry storms
  producing minimal rainfall are also forecast between the
  Continental Divide and the central mountain chain, especially
  during the middle to latter half of the week.

- Storms in northeast New Mexico on Sunday will turn strong to
  severe. This trend will continue each afternoon and evening
  during the week ahead, especially on Wednesday when locally
  heavy rainfall, large hail, and damaging winds will expand over
  eastern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025

A weak upper low continues to sag south of the Great Basin,
drawing up high cirrus clouds from the southwest into NM. Some
thicker tufts of cirrus have hampered the heating, but warm to hot
temperatures are still prevalent. The backdoor front is also
sneaking into northeastern zones already, lowering readings at CAO
and surrounding areas. The thick high clouds are projected to
thin out through the overnight hours, but will not fully exit.
Meanwhile, the front will push farther south and west, making its
way beyond I-40 and likely near or just beyond the Sangre de
Cristos and Sandia/Manzanos by daybreak Sunday. While no east wind
is modeled for ABQ, there could be a modest wind shift into Santa
Fe with a few low clouds even trying to seep in past Glorieta.
Low stratus will be more prevalent over the northeastern quadrant
of NM late tonight and into Sunday morning with patchy drizzle
even possible.

Into the daytime Sunday, the low clouds will be stubborn to erode
behind the front with some patches surviving toward or just after
the noon hour. The NV low will become less defined moving into UT
while another weak shortwave trough lifts into NM from the
southwest. A couple of the CAMs, particularly the ARW and FV3 are
quite bullish on the Sangre de Cristos lighting up in the early
afternoon with cells turning strong to severe as they roll off
into the eastern foothills and adjacent highlands. The 12Z NAM
depicts an isolated cell forming over the Sangre de Cristos before
moving eastward, but is rather subdued otherwise. It does look as
though initiation would have to come off of the east faces of the
Sangre de Cristos, as the post frontal environment would be too
stable over the plains, and a stiffer easterly upslope component
would be the difference maker over the mountains. Have added a
mention of severe storms in northeastern zones for Sunday
afternoon and evening, but the coverage will likely be fairly
sparse with showers and/or drizzle increasing over northeastern
zones overnight Sunday night. As for temperatures, it will be
cooler in all zones, generally by 5 to 15 degrees with some
northeastern areas even a bit cooler. The east wind also looks to
spill stronger into the middle Rio Grande valley with gusty canyon
winds impacting ABQ Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025

The aforementioned waves from UT and NM will shift into the
central plains on Monday while the northeast stays under the
influence of the cooler and more moist airmass attendant with
surface high pressure. East central to northeastern zones do look
to destabilize more into Monday afternoon, but not enough to erode
a healthy subsidence inversion near/above 700 mb. Temperatures
would also still run shy of normal by 5 to 15 degrees. Any storm
development should favor northeastern zones, but POPs were
tempered some from the blended guidance. Northern Colfax and
northern Union would likely fair the best, and while a strong to
severe storm is not out of the question, confidence is somewhat
low, and SPC seems to be in agreement with no Marginal Risk area
outlined for Monday.

Another weak upper low takes shape near the lower Colorado river
basin on Tuesday while the surface flow over NM turns more south
or southeast. Showers and storms cannot be ruled out east of the
central mountain chain Tuesday with increasing instability, but
lower wind shear would reduce the severe threat. Dewpoints would
be in the 30`s and 40`s across these eastern zones Tuesday, but
should rise more into Wednesday with the aid of better return flow
from the Gulf. This along with a slight uptick in west southwest
flow aloft should yield a better, and more organized crop of
storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. With shallow low layer
moisture seeping into portions of the Rio Grande valley and even
toward the Continental Divide, some dry and elevated storms would
also be expected to develop farther west Wednesday.

A new upper low will approach the Baja peninsula Thursday, Friday
and Saturday, replacing its weaker predecessor. This will act to
keep a light wind field over NM while also drawing in a more
homogeneous easterly synoptic surface flow that will ultimately
increase low layer moisture. The central mountains eastward would
remain favored for appreciable rainfall while the western zones
would tend to observe more virga and gusty, dry storms through
this stretch.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025

Breezy southwest winds across much of the region taper off around
sunset with scattered to broken mid to high level clouds overhead
during the overnight hours. A backdoor front across far northeast
NM near KCAO surges southeast through the rest of northeast and
east central NM after sunset resulting in a northeast wind shift.
Low clouds and MVFR to IFR conditions move into far northeast NM
around 06Z expanding to as far south as KSXU and KTCC and as far
west as KLVS just prior to sunrise. Low clouds break up slowly
late morning but hold on across far northeast NM through the
afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms develop over the Sangre de
Cristo mountains come the early afternoon moving east over the
northeast highlands come the evening and potentially impacting
KRTN and KLVS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025

Breezy to windy conditions will gradually subside this evening,
ending the elevated or marginally critical conditions that are in
place. The flow aloft will start to decrease Sunday onward with
less organized disturbances. This will reduce the wind concerns
over northern and central NM, but periods of breezy conditions
will still commonly occur in the afternoons with any nearby
showers or thunderstorms producing gusty disruptions. Eastern
zones have been teased with increasing dewpoints and higher
humidity, but this trend will start to turn more substantial
toward the middle of next week after a couple of pushes from
backdoor fronts and then a better-established return flow by
Wednesday. The moisture will attempt to spread into the Rio Grande
valley and even toward the Continental Divide Wednesday,
potentially inching farther west each day through the end of the
week. However, the low layer moisture will be shallow in central
and western zones, yielding mostly just virga and dry, gusty
thunderstorms. These dry storms and the new ignition potential
from dry lightning will be a focus for the middle to latter part
of the week ahead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  82  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  41  78  40  75 /   0   0   5  20
Cuba............................  47  77  46  75 /   0   0  10  10
Gallup..........................  38  78  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  41  75  40  75 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  40  80  39  79 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  43  78  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  50  80  49  79 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  44  77  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  42  81  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  48  84  44  85 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  41  72  40  69 /   0   5  10  30
Los Alamos......................  54  77  51  73 /   0  10  20  30
Pecos...........................  50  75  45  72 /   5  30  40  40
Cerro/Questa....................  47  73  42  69 /   5  40  30  40
Red River.......................  36  65  35  62 /  10  40  40  50
Angel Fire......................  24  68  26  65 /  10  50  40  50
Taos............................  42  76  41  73 /   5  30  30  30
Mora............................  43  71  39  67 /  10  50  50  50
Espanola........................  47  83  48  79 /   0  20  20  20
Santa Fe........................  50  78  50  75 /   0  20  30  30
Santa Fe Airport................  48  82  49  80 /   0  20  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  83  55  81 /   0   0  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  85  57  83 /   0   0  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  51  87  52  85 /   0   0  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  85  54  83 /   0   0  10  10
Belen...........................  51  87  51  86 /   0   0   5   5
Bernalillo......................  54  86  54  84 /   0   0  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  49  87  49  86 /   0   0   5   5
Corrales........................  55  86  54  84 /   0   0  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  51  87  51  86 /   0   0   5   5
Placitas........................  55  83  53  81 /   0   5  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  55  85  54  83 /   0   0  10  10
Socorro.........................  55  89  55  88 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  51  78  47  76 /   0   5  20  20
Tijeras.........................  52  81  49  78 /   0   0  20  20
Edgewood........................  50  81  46  78 /   0  10  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  82  45  78 /   0  10  20  20
Clines Corners..................  48  76  45  73 /   0  20  30  20
Mountainair.....................  49  80  45  78 /   0   0  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  50  80  46  78 /   0   0  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  56  83  52  81 /   0   0   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  48  77  46  75 /   0   0   5  10
Capulin.........................  50  63  44  64 /  20  60  60  60
Raton...........................  51  70  46  69 /  10  60  50  50
Springer........................  51  75  46  70 /  10  50  40  50
Las Vegas.......................  46  74  44  70 /  10  40  50  40
Clayton.........................  54  64  49  66 /  30  40  70  60
Roy.............................  53  74  47  67 /  10  40  60  50
Conchas.........................  58  81  53  76 /   5  30  50  40
Santa Rosa......................  54  82  52  78 /   0  20  40  30
Tucumcari.......................  59  80  53  75 /   5  30  50  40
Clovis..........................  59  85  53  79 /   5  30  30  20
Portales........................  58  90  54  82 /   5  20  30  20
Fort Sumner.....................  54  87  53  82 /   0  20  20  30
Roswell.........................  62  97  59  89 /   0   0   5  10
Picacho.........................  57  90  53  84 /   0   0   5  10
Elk.............................  56  86  50  83 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...71