094
FXUS65 KABQ 242317 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
417 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 314 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

 - Breezy to windy conditions into this evening with gusts of up
   to 55 mph along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
   Mountains southward to around Vaughn.

 - Rain and mainly mountain snow showers mostly over far northern
   areas Tuesday through Wednesday night with a few to several
   inches of snow possible in the northern mountains.

 - Breezy to windy conditions return Tuesday through Wednesday,
   then colder and partly sunny on Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1224 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

Windy conditions will continue across much of northern NM into
this evening before trending down. A backdoor cold front will
bring notably colder air to eastern NM Monday. Warmer conditions
are forecast Tuesday as stronger winds return to northern NM,
especially in the mountains and adjacent eastern highlands. Snow
showers will impact the northern mountains Tuesday, then spread to
include the western mountains Tuesday night into Wednesday when a
cold front will move east across the area. Several inches of snow
are forecast in the northern mountains through Wednesday night,
especially in the Tusas Mountains. Brisk conditions are forecast
Wednesday with the cold front. Colder conditions will prevail on
Thanksgiving Day behind the cold front, followed by a slow warming
trend through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1224 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

A shortwave trough is racing across the central Rockies with a stout
upper level jet nosing its way inland off of the Pacific. Wind
speeds at 300 mb are pushing close to 100 kt in northern NM with 700
mb speeds of 50 to 60 kt still pounding the Sangre de Cristos and
surrounding highlands. While deep vertical mixing is not present,
these mountain/highland areas are easily getting the strong momentum
down to the surface with a few severe gusts near and above 60 mph
even being reported at KLVS and KRTN with mountain wave activity
ongoing. These speeds aloft will be slow to relax through daybreak
Monday, but surface speeds are expected to drop considerably after
sunset with the mountain wave just to the lee of the Sangre de
Cristos lagging a few hours. Currently, the Wind Advisory is still
planned to expire around sunset.

Overnight temperatures will remain warm over most western and
central zones tonight in the absence of strong inversions due to the
stronger winds aloft, however the aforementioned shortwave trough
will send down a backdoor cold front that will enter northeastern NM
before dawn Monday and will invade the remainder of the eastern
plains before noon. Consequently, cold air advection will drop
northeastern area temperatures considerably tonight before impacting
remaining eastern plains zones Monday.

Daytime highs Monday still look to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal
(15-25 degrees cooler than todays readings). The 700 mb winds will
be subsiding to a 15-30 kt range over NM on Monday, and this along
with the building surface high pressure in eastern zones will yield
much lower surface wind speeds. However, a new low will be moving
toward the OR and northern CA coast Monday night, allowing the zonal
jet to begin increasing again over NM. Continued top-down moistening
will lead to more mid level clouds over northwestern and north
central NM zones early Tuesday morning along with some flurries or
light snow beginning near Farmington, Dulce, and Chama.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1224 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

The westerlies and Pacific moisture will be on the uptrend
Tuesday through Tuesday night as an upper level trough, currently
an upper low offshore of the Pacific NW, moves east across the
Great Basin toward the southern Rockies. Orographic forcing with
strong westerly flow will bring snow showers to the northern and
western mountains, but especially to the Tusas Mountains where
several inches of accumulation are likely through late Wednesday.
We`re currently forecasting warning amounts across the peaks of
the Tusas, but less than advisory amounts in Chama and zero snow
in the lower reaches of that forecast zone. A Winter Weather
advisory may be required for that zone, but will let later shifts
take another look before making that decision. The upper level
trough and attendant Pacific cold front will move east across the
southern Rockies and northern NM on Wednesday, bringing brisk
conditions and continued showers. Colder and quieter conditions
will prevail in the wake of the cold front on Thanksgiving Day,
with high temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal across much of
northern and eastern NM. A slow and steady warmup is forecast from
Friday through the weekend, although the 12Z medium range model
solutions are offering up some differences with regard to an
additional backdoor cold front and possible tap of Pacific
moisture. Lower forecast confidence beyond Thanksgiving at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 314 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

Strong westerly flow will persist over northern and central NM
through Monday morning, with the potential for hazardous mountain
wind wave action to the lee of the Sangre De Cristo and
Sandia/Manzano Mountains. Once surface winds subside at KLVS this
evening, low level wind shear is forecast overnight. A backdoor
front will move south across eastern NM overnight and result in a
wind shift at KTCC and KROW Monday morning. The development of a
2nd cloud layer across northwest and north central NM may lower
and obscure the highest peaks going into early Monday morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with
an overall downtrend in winds Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1224 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

Very windy conditions are impacting the Sangre de Cristos and
surrounding highlands of northeastern and central NM with breezy to
windy (15 to 35 mph) conditions in most other areas of northern and
central NM. Humidity is also falling to a 15 to 25 percent range
over much of the windiest locations, leading to elevated or
marginally critical fire weather conditions that will persist until
sunset when winds are forecast to reduce in speed. A cold front will
then back into NM from the northeast tonight into Monday, leading to
lighter winds (and less efficient vertical mixing and hence smoke
ventilation), but this short break will fade quickly with stronger
winds redeveloping Tuesday. Increasing Pacific moisture will keep
humidity rising Monday into Tuesday (afternoon RH values of largely
25 to 45 percent), so no critical fire weather concerns are expected
on Tuesday despite the windy conditions. Breezy to windy conditions
will persist into Wednesday with a more widespread majority of the
forecast area observing occasional gusts of 25 to 35 mph. In
addition, an upper level disturbance approaching Colorado will
produce a quick opportunity for rain and mountain snow over northern
areas of NM. A few inches of fresh snow accumulation would be
possible in the Tusas mountains near the NM-CO border. Drier and
less windy weather looks to prevail Thanksgiving Day. Another
potential upper level disturbance is being watched closely for
Friday, but at this point rain and mountain snow chances are light
(10-20 percent) before a likely dry weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  30  51  35  55 /   5   0  20  20
Dulce...........................  22  48  27  48 /  10   5  30  50
Cuba............................  26  49  31  56 /   5   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  23  54  28  59 /   0   0   0   5
El Morro........................  25  51  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  25  56  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  27  57  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  36  59  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  30  58  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  26  64  27  67 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  36  66  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  21  43  23  43 /  20   5  30  60
Los Alamos......................  33  47  35  54 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  31  51  31  55 /   0   0   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  28  45  30  48 /   5   0   5  20
Red River.......................  24  38  26  41 /   5   0   5  30
Angel Fire......................  26  42  28  45 /   5   0   5  10
Taos............................  24  47  25  52 /   5   5   5  10
Mora............................  28  49  27  56 /   0   0   0   5
Espanola........................  30  53  31  61 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  33  49  34  55 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  31  51  32  58 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  36  54  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  37  56  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  32  58  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  35  56  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  33  59  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  34  56  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  30  58  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  34  56  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  32  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  35  53  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  35  55  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  38  63  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  33  50  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  36  52  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  32  52  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  27  55  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  31  50  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  34  55  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  34  55  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  41  61  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  40  58  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  23  38  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  25  44  24  60 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  25  42  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  30  46  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  30  44  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  29  44  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  33  51  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  35  50  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  33  48  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  37  51  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  37  53  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  38  54  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  44  63  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  46  63  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  46  63  36  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ214-215-223-228-
229-233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11