234
FXUS65 KABQ 081115 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
515 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025

- A warming and drying trend will occur early this week with
  isolated showers and storms favoring the southern high terrain
  and along the TX border today, and the western and central high
  terrain Tuesday.

- Wetter and more active weather looks to return mid to late in
  the work week with the highest coverage of showers and storms
  expected on Friday, especially for locations across western and
  central New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1251 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025

A shortwave ridge is moving east over the Land of Enchantment
with clear skies areawide early this morning. Heading towards
sunrise Monday morning, low dewpoint depressions and southerly
surface flow will result in the potential for low clouds
across parts of the eastern plains, especially locations in the
Pecos River valley. Low confidence exists in this materializing
based on the hi res guidance suite. The low clouds should burn
off quickly after sunrise. An ideal start to the work week is
expected. Temperatures will be right around to slightly above
average for early September. A few stray showers or storms cannot be
ruled out during the afternoon and early evening before sunset
across the southern high terrain between Ruidoso and Dunken due to
lingering higher moisture across this part of the state as well as
along the TX state line near Clayton due to a surface boundary in
the area.

Tuesday marks the very beginning stages of a pattern change. The
shortwave ridge axis will begin to move into West Texas as a 568 dam
500 mb upper low moves into the Pacific NW. Daytime heating and
southerly flow increasing PWATS values to modest values of 0.6 to
0.8 inches will result in the development of isolated drier shower
and thunderstorm activity with very small wetting footprints across
the western and central high terrain and east central plains. Any
shower and thunderstorm activity should dissipate after sunset with
the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1251 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025

Shower and thunderstorm coverage west of the central mountain chain
gradually increases Wednesday and Thursday as PWAT values increase
to 0.8 to 1 inch due to south-southwest flow between an upper level
low over the interior Pacific NW and Nevada Great Basin and the
upper level ridge over the Great Plains. The best coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will be for locations across the south and
southwest facing slopes of the San Juan and Tusas Mountains due to
the south-southwest flow. With increasing flow aloft helping to
increase effective bulk shear values to around 30 to 35 kts, this
will allowing a few storms to potentially become strong to severe
across northwest NM Wednesday and northwest and north central NM on
Thursday. Areas along and east of the central mountain chain,
including the HPCC and Ruidoso burn scars look to be mostly dry
Wednesday due to being near the upper high centroid over the Permian
Basin. A scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms moves over
the HPCC burn scar Thursday afternoon and evening as the moist south-
southwest flow moves more overhead. Quick northeast storm motions
will help to limit the flash flood threat and guidance is showing
heavier QPF remaining west of the burn scar.

Come Friday, the upper low moves over the Great Salt Lake and
northern Utah with drier westerly impinging into southern CA and
much of AZ south of the upper low. This will set up a defined
moisture boundary along the AZ/NM border with PWATS below 0.50
inches west of the boundary and around 0.9 to 1 inch along and
east of the boundary. This moisture boundary will result in the
highest storm coverage of the week for western and central NM with
areas along and north of I-40 and along and west of I-25 being the
most favored. Storms will have the potential to become strong to
severe with effective bulk shear values of 35 to 45 kts. With the
quick east-northeast storm motions, it will take multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms to result in flash flooding. Ruidoso looks
to once again be on the southern edge of most of the shower and
thunderstorm activity on Friday. Storms move into northeast and east
central NM Friday evening slowly tapering off Friday night as drier
westerly flow moves into western NM.

For the weekend, extended ensemble cluster guidance depicts the
upper low slowly moves northeast into the northern Rockies weakening
opening up as it does so. It`s northeast progress gets slowed due to
a blocking upper high over central Canada. The position of the upper
low will help push drier westerly air into western and some of
central NM Saturday. Higher moisture with PWATs around 0.8 to 1 inch
lingers along and east of the central mountain chain helping to keep
a scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms across this part
of the state. Uncertainty increases Sunday as guidance varies on how
far east this drier westerly flow moves through. This is due to
another upper low moving into the Pacific Coast. An upper low
digging further south will keep the higher moisture and resultant
scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage across southern and
eastern NM while a shallower upper low will result in the drier
westerly flow making more progress east and little shower and
thunderstorm activity along and east of the central mountain
chain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025

A small patch of low clouds is moving north across Lea and
Roosevelt County east of KROW. Kept a TEMPO at KROW through 14Z
for these low clouds to be in the vicinity of the terminal, but
confidence is low. Any low clouds across far eastern NM should
quickly burn off by mid morning. A few stray showers and storms
along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains and along the TX
border near KCAO this afternoon and near KCVS and KCVN early this
evening with the threat being conditional. If a storm were to
develop near the TX border, it will be capable of becoming strong
to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main
threats. Mostly clear skies areawide overnight with some breezy
south winds across the eastern plains TAF sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1251 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025

No critical fire weather conditions expected through the forecast
period. Mostly dry and warm today. Isolated dry showers and storms
across the western and central high terrain Tuesday with the main
fire weather hazard being dry lightning starts. Breezy south
winds with shower and storm coverage increasing along and west of
the central mountain chain Wednesday and Thursday, peaking Friday.
Faster storm motions will help to limit the flash flood threat on
recent burn scars. Drier westerly flow looks to move into western
and parts of central NM Saturday with scattered shower and
thunderstorm coverage along and east of the central mountain
chain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  86  58  87  60 /   0   0   5  10
Dulce...........................  82  44  83  46 /   0   0  10  20
Cuba............................  82  52  82  53 /   0   0  20  20
Gallup..........................  84  50  83  50 /   0   0   5   5
El Morro........................  81  51  81  52 /   0   0  20  20
Grants..........................  85  52  85  52 /   5   0  20  20
Quemado.........................  82  53  83  53 /   5   5  10   5
Magdalena.......................  83  59  83  58 /   5   5  20  10
Datil...........................  81  53  81  53 /  10   5  20  10
Reserve.........................  89  52  88  53 /  10   5   5   5
Glenwood........................  92  57  91  59 /   5   5   5   5
Chama...........................  77  46  78  46 /   5   0  20  20
Los Alamos......................  79  57  79  57 /   0   0  20  10
Pecos...........................  80  53  81  53 /   0   0  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  78  51  79  52 /   0   0  10  10
Red River.......................  69  43  70  44 /   0   0  20   5
Angel Fire......................  74  36  75  38 /   0   0  10   5
Taos............................  82  48  82  50 /   0   0  10  10
Mora............................  77  48  78  49 /   0   0  10  10
Espanola........................  86  54  86  55 /   0   0  10  10
Santa Fe........................  80  57  81  58 /   0   0   5  10
Santa Fe Airport................  84  54  85  55 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  87  65  88  65 /   0   0  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  89  62  90  63 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  91  61  92  62 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  89  62  90  63 /   0   0   5  10
Belen...........................  91  59  91  59 /   0   0   5   5
Bernalillo......................  90  61  91  62 /   0   0   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  90  58  91  58 /   0   0   5   5
Corrales........................  90  62  91  63 /   0   0   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  90  59  91  60 /   0   0   5   5
Placitas........................  85  60  86  61 /   0   0   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  90  62  90  63 /   0   0   5  10
Socorro.........................  92  64  94  63 /   0   5   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  82  56  83  56 /   0   0  10  10
Tijeras.........................  82  58  83  58 /   0   0  10  10
Edgewood........................  84  52  85  53 /   0   0   5   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  49  86  51 /   0   0   5   5
Clines Corners..................  80  55  81  55 /   0   0   5   5
Mountainair.....................  83  55  84  55 /   0   0   5   5
Gran Quivira....................  83  56  83  55 /   0   0   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  86  61  86  61 /   0   0  10   0
Ruidoso.........................  78  57  79  56 /  20   0  20   0
Capulin.........................  79  50  81  51 /   5  10   0   5
Raton...........................  82  49  83  50 /   5  10   5   5
Springer........................  85  49  86  50 /   0   5   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  81  51  82  53 /   0   0  10  10
Clayton.........................  86  56  89  60 /  20   5   0   0
Roy.............................  84  52  86  55 /  10   5   0   5
Conchas.........................  90  58  91  61 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  88  56  89  58 /   0   0   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  87  59  90  61 /  10   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  90  61  92  63 /  10  20   5   5
Portales........................  90  61  94  63 /  10  20   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  91  61  92  62 /   0   0   5   5
Roswell.........................  92  63  96  64 /  20   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  88  58  90  58 /  20   5  10   0
Elk.............................  86  56  87  57 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71