116
FXUS65 KABQ 092325 CCA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
425 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 423 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

 - Warming temperatures will allow for snow melt and improving
   paved road conditions. Unpaved roads will experience muddy and
   uncertain travel conditions still.

 - Freezing fog remains likely to return tonight through Sunday
   morning in valley locations of central and northwestern NM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 209 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

Snowmelt and warming temperatures is the rule over the next several
days as sunny skies and warmer air temperatures move in. Snow will
hold on the longest where the highest drifts have developed over
north-central and northeastern NM. So far, blowing ground snow has
been very limited given temperatures hovering near or just above
freezing in these areas. Freezing fog is expected to develop again
tonight in valley areas of central and northern NM where snow
remains. The question is precision and timing of the freezing fog.
The weather pattern will be hold true through the work week, warming
steadily each day. The one exception will be a brief pause in the
warming trend Tuesday into Wednesday with an increase in windy
westerlies Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 209 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

The winter storm system from the prior 3 days is now an occluded H5
low over Nebraska this afternoon. Clear sunny skies have graced the
Land of Enchantment today, leaving behind a clear view of the snow
cover on the ground across central and northern NM. Travel
conditions are steadily improving as snow melts. The potential for
any blowing ground snow has been greatly minimized as temperatures
hover near or above freezing in many of these areas where thick
snowfall lays. Freezing fog from this morning has lifted, but is
expected to redevelop tonight in some valley areas of central and
northern NM, to include the Estancia Valley and upper Rio Grande
Valley and portions of the Far Northwest Highlands north of the
Jemez Mountains up toward Chama and Dulce. The question here will be
how northwesterly winds impact the potential for freezing fog
development in the Estancia Valley. Northerly drainage winds are
expected to inhibit fog development at Santa Fe as well, but did
include it for the evening hours before those drainage winds
strengthen.

Temperatures were dropped in central and northern valley areas
tonight as winds are expected to decouple more than they did last
night. So areas like Angel Fire in the Moreno Valley should see
minimum temperatures fall considerably compared with this morning`s
readings. Angel Fire in particular has a forecast low of -1F, but
this will entirely rely on how fast winds decouple within the
localized valley there. Also brought MaxT`s well below model
guidance where the thickest snowfall was reported from Clines
Corners to the Sangre de Cristo Mts and adjacent northeastern
highlands and plains for Sunday. Persistent snow coverage will limit
any warming in these areas at least through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 209 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

Monday begins the long term period with the warming trend continuing
as the northern fringe of a high pressure system builds over
southern and central NM. Winds will be light, increasing Tuesday in
response to a shortwave trough skirting northern NM in the
afternoon. Windy conditions will be felt from the central and
northeastern highlands eastward toward the TX border where peak
gusts to 25 to 35 mph will be felt. The warming trend continues
Thursday from its brief pause Tuesday and Wednesday.

A more active weather pattern returns next weekend as another
jetmax within the polar jet screams into the PacNW generating the
next storm system diving down into the Intermountain West. The
question remains how deep this upper low will become, if it can
close off. With the upper level pattern it has been, a more
amplified polar jet pattern with a closed low would seem the more
likely scenario. This would favor cooler and wetter conditions
across New Mexico with this next storm system next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 423 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

VFR conditions with light winds prevail for the TAF period with
one exception. Areas of LIFR conditions from low ceilings and fog
and freezing fog is expected to return tonight through just after
sunrise Sunday morning for the northwest highlands around Dulce
and Chama and the Estancia Valley, near K0E0 due to snowcover.
There is potential for some low clouds and fog near or at KSAF
before the north drainage wind picks up overnight. Few high clouds
move across the airspace tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

Heavy snow across portions of central and northern NM will remain
over the next several days before it entirely melts off.
Temperatures will steadily warm up each day through Tuesday. Winds
increase and ventilation improves Tuesday in response to a weak
weather system skirting northern NM, allowing peak wind gusts of 25
to 35 mph across the Central and Northeastern Highlands and
Northeastern Plains Tuesday afternoon. Winds lessen Wednesday and
temperatures resume their warming trend through the end of next
week. A more active weather pattern is favored by next weekend with
another possible winter storm system reaching the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  25  53  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  12  49  15  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  20  45  23  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  17  56  20  60 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  23  55  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  17  54  21  57 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  23  58  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  28  55  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  25  56  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  22  67  26  69 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  28  69  30  71 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  16  48  20  53 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  27  45  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  26  45  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  20  44  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  13  38  15  39 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  -1  37   4  39 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  15  45  17  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  16  40  25  41 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  20  50  22  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  26  44  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  22  44  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  30  51  35  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  26  52  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  24  53  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  27  50  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  22  53  21  55 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  25  51  28  53 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  21  53  19  55 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  23  52  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  23  53  21  55 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  28  48  32  50 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  26  50  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  28  58  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  25  47  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  27  49  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  20  44  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  15  43  17  52 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  23  39  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  21  48  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  23  50  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  32  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  32  60  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  22  40  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  18  44  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  16  39  20  47 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  16  42  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  27  43  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  24  44  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  26  58  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  28  53  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  26  61  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  33  68  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  34  67  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  30  63  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  37  70  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  35  69  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  33  71  35  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...71