363
FXUS65 KABQ 101911
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
111 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk remains across much of New Mexico,
  especially the Rio Grande Valley and Four Corners area. Record
  high temperatures are expected today over central and western
  New Mexico.

- Limited afternoon thunderstorm activity today slowly increases
  through late this week. Risk of flash flooding returns to parts
  of central and western New Mexico mid to late week, including
  the Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Smoke from wildfires across the region will continue to impact
  air quality across northern parts of New Mexico through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1217 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The 18Z KABQ upper air sounding measured a 500mb height of 596dam,
down from 599dam a couple of days ago. However, the Monsoon high
is still anomalously strong over the region and will continue to
result in hot conditions and a moderate to major heat risk for
many lower elevation locales through Tuesday. Forecast high
temperatures on Tuesday are just below our Heat Advisory criteria,
so an additional advisory is not anticipated at this time.
Today`s crop of daytime heating initiated convection will focus
along and west of the central mountain chain, with storms moving
south and southwest around the upper high circulation. Storms that
develop across the west central and southwest high terrain today
and Tuesday will be in a relative higher PWAT environment and more
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall than elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1217 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

By Wednesday, the Monsoon high will be repositioned to over the
Gulf Coast and winds in the lower/mid levels of the atmosphere
will turn out of the south, transporting moisture north across NM
and bringing PWATs back to near average for mid August. PWATs will
continue to rise through the end of the work week as troughing
along the west coast allows for a continuous moisture feed into
the region. Temperatures will trend down and chances for showers
and storms will trend up during the Wednesday through Saturday
period, bringing a localized flash flooding threat that will be
elevated on/near area burn scars. At this time, Friday and
Saturday are forecast to be the two most active days of the next
seven, with above average PWATs across the region. The upper high
is modeled to build back to the west over NM late in the weekend
and into early next week, bringing a slight uptrend in
temperatures and slight downtrend in rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
potential MVFR conditions in smoke at KSAF later today and
overnight as the Frijoles wildfire continues to impact the area.
Otherwise, iso/sct showers and storms will impact central and
western NM later this afternoon and evening, favoring
strong/erratic wind gusts over other hazards. Forecast confidence
sufficient only for PROB30 groups at KGUP, KSAF and KABQ/KAEG
later today. Outside of shower/storm outflow, winds will be
mostly light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1217 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. An anomalously strong Monsoon high over the
region continues to bring unusually hot and mostly dry conditions,
allowing for some fire growth. However, the upper high is
forecast to weaken and move east of the area through the week,
bringing temperatures down closer to average and allowing PWATs to
climb to more normal levels for mid August. These trends will
bring increased humidity and improved chances for wetting rain
from mid through late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  98  65  93 /   0   0  20  10
Dulce...........................  54  95  53  90 /  10  20  40  40
Cuba............................  60  92  59  88 /  30  10  50  30
Gallup..........................  59  90  57  86 /  40  30  40  40
El Morro........................  56  86  55  82 /  40  50  60  60
Grants..........................  60  91  58  88 /  40  30  50  50
Quemado.........................  59  86  57  82 /  40  60  50  70
Magdalena.......................  64  90  63  88 /  10  30  30  40
Datil...........................  59  86  57  82 /  20  60  30  60
Reserve.........................  57  92  56  88 /  20  60  20  70
Glenwood........................  62  96  60  93 /  20  60  20  50
Chama...........................  53  87  52  84 /  20  40  40  60
Los Alamos......................  63  91  62  88 /  40  30  30  40
Pecos...........................  59  91  58  89 /  20  30  40  30
Cerro/Questa....................  57  89  56  86 /  20  30  40  50
Red River.......................  49  79  49  76 /  20  50  40  70
Angel Fire......................  44  84  43  82 /  30  50  40  60
Taos............................  57  93  56  90 /  30  30  30  40
Mora............................  55  88  55  86 /  20  50  40  50
Espanola........................  64  99  63  95 /  30  20  30  20
Santa Fe........................  63  92  62  90 /  20  20  30  30
Santa Fe Airport................  61  95  61  92 /  20  20  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  98  67  96 /  30  10  40  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  99  67  96 /  30   5  40  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  68 101  67  99 /  30   5  40  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69  99  68  97 /  30  10  40  20
Belen...........................  67 102  66  97 /  20   0  40  10
Bernalillo......................  68 101  67  98 /  30  10  40  20
Bosque Farms....................  66 101  64  97 /  20   5  40  10
Corrales........................  69 101  67  98 /  30   5  40  20
Los Lunas.......................  67 101  65  97 /  20   0  40  10
Placitas........................  67  96  66  94 /  30  10  40  20
Rio Rancho......................  69 100  67  97 /  30  10  40  20
Socorro.........................  71 102  69  99 /   5  10  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  92  61  90 /  30  20  50  30
Tijeras.........................  64  93  62  90 /  30  10  40  30
Edgewood........................  60  95  59  92 /  30  20  40  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  96  56  94 /  30  20  40  20
Clines Corners..................  60  91  59  89 /  30  30  40  20
Mountainair.....................  61  94  59  92 /  30  20  40  20
Gran Quivira....................  62  93  60  91 /  20  10  40  20
Carrizozo.......................  68  96  67  93 /  10  10  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  61  88  62  86 /   0  30  20  40
Capulin.........................  60  89  59  89 /  20  30  30  20
Raton...........................  57  93  57  92 /  20  30  20  20
Springer........................  58  96  57  95 /  20  20  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  57  92  57  91 /  20  20  30  20
Clayton.........................  67  97  66  98 /  10   0   5   5
Roy.............................  63  93  62  94 /  10   0  10   5
Conchas.........................  68 101  68 101 /  10   0  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  66  97  66  97 /  10   0  20   5
Tucumcari.......................  69 102  69 103 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  67 100  68 100 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  68 100  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  68 100  69 100 /   0   0   5   0
Roswell.........................  71 102  72 102 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  66  98  67  97 /   0   5   5  20
Elk.............................  62  95  64  94 /   0  10   5  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-217-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11