346
FXUS65 KABQ 070600 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1200 AM MDT Wed May 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM MDT Wed May 7 2025

- Expect rises in rivers, creeks and arroyos, as well as water
  over low water crossings and especially along the east slopes of
  the Sangre De Cristo Mountains due to recent rain and snow along
  with rapid snow melt.

- Daily rounds of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will persist
  through the weekend favoring the high terrain, while
  temperatures slowly climb back to average by late in the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

The upper low is squarely over NM now, keeping temperatures cool.
Despite the cooler than average temperatures, diurnal destabilization
is occurring with the boundary layer, and numerous showers and
thunderstorms are taking shape, orbiting the low in a cyclonic
motion. This increasing shower and storm development comes after a
morning lull in activity following widespread precipitation in
northern and eastern zones last night. The most breaks of sunshine
have occurred in south central and east central/southeast NM
where destabilization initiated. If low stratus clouds do not
erode much more in northeastern NM in the next few hours, it may
limit potential for heavier rainfall, and the Flash Flood Watch
will be able to expire on time, if not earlier. Temperatures have
warmed in the Tusas, even at 10 kft with the Hopewell Snotel site
reading 34 F as of this writing which should limit additional snow
accumulation. Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory was
cancelled. The Winter Storm Warning for the high Sangre de Cristos
will now run through 10 PM MDT with most significant snowfall
expected to end prior. Much of the shower and thunderstorm
activity will dwindle in coverage after sunset when the boundary
layer begins stabilizing again, and the upper low will also be
exiting northeast NM. As we head into the morning hours Wednesday,
the concerns will turn to low stratus clouds and fog/freezing
fog. The water-logged northeast highlands, northeast plains and
some adjacent east central areas would be the prime candidates for
fog development over soggy soils, but patchy to isolated areas
could even develop in portions in other northern and western
zones, as dewpoint depressions will shrink late tonight.

The upper low will push farther into KS and OK Wednesday afternoon
with the subsequent low dropping into AZ as an open shortwave. Flow
aloft will reduce significantly, and while temperatures will warm up
a few degrees, daytime highs will still run 10 to 15 degrees below
normal in most zones. Dewpoints will reduce by a few (5-8 F) degrees
Wednesday, and instability will remain modest with LIs advertised
to range from 1 to -2 C with the northeastern zones being the most
stable. A significant reduction in shower and thunderstorm coverage
is therefore expected with a low chance for any strong to severe
cells due to less shear. Showers and storms would dissipate through
Wednesday evening with a slow thinning of clouds into Wednesday
night and Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

By Thursday morning, the trailing upper low will be opening up
and moving over the NM Bootheel into far west TX as a shortwave
trough, while an upper level ridge amplifies across the Desert SW
and southern Great Basin. A round of daytime heating triggered
and "garden variety" convection is forecast Thursday
afternoon/evening, focusing mainly over the mountains. A slow
warming trend is forecast from Friday through the weekend as the
upper level ridge expands and leans over to the east across the
central/southern Rockies and NM. Low level moist easterly upslope
flow will keep temperatures across eastern NM below average
through the weekend, despite the warming. Sufficient PWATs will
remain in place for rounds of isolated to scattered daytime
heating triggered storms through the weekend, favoring the
northern mountains. The upper level ridge will shift east of the
area on Monday, giving way to increasing westerly flow aloft
through Tuesday and bringing some drying and continued warming.
Temperatures will be above average most areas by Monday. Winds
will be trending up early next week, with breezy to locally windy
conditions forecast across much of the area by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed May 7 2025

Light showers across west central and central NM, including KGUP,
KAEG, KABQ and KSAF, will result in MVFR ceilings at times. These
showers should taper off around sunrise. Moist low levels will
allow MVFR conditions to continue across areas of northern NM
through mid morning with IFR to LIFR conditions due to fog across
far northeast NM. Low possibility for fog across the northeast
highlands and Estancia Valley, including KLVS and K0e0, during
this time. Another upper low approaches western NM Wednesday with
daytime heating resulting in the development of scattered to
numerous showers and storms across the western and northern
mountains. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty and erratic winds
possible in and around storms. MVFR ceilings look to hang on
across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and far northeast NM during
the afternoon. Showers look to focus across central areas after
sunset Wednesday resulting in more MVFR ceilings.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

Recent rainfall and high mountain snowfall has left fuels soaked or
snow covered in most of north central, northeastern, and east
central NM with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
currently regenerating. Locations along and north of I-40 will
continue to add a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch of
liquid equivalent precipitation through this evening, and this will
be the case again (on a more spotty basis) Wednesday. In addition,
the humidity recovery will be excellent in all zones tonight and
again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Any recent or new
lighting-initiated wildfires should have very low and slow growth
potential through this time frame. Into Thursday and Friday, storm
coverage will reduce, and temperatures will gradually warm up area-
wide. An easterly wind will develop Friday into Friday night, but
the opportunity for additional moisture looks to be rather subdued
per latest model runs. A slight uptick in storms is being modeled
for the Continental Divide Saturday, but storm coverage will likely
reduce again into Sunday. Into early next week, southwesterlies
would start to increase with lowering humidity Monday and Tuesday.
This could start to introduce elevated fire weather concerns with
the breezy and drier conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  37  66  42  73 /  40  30  10  10
Dulce...........................  24  59  33  66 /  30  40  30  40
Cuba............................  31  57  35  63 /  30  40  30  20
Gallup..........................  32  61  31  70 /  40  60  30  10
El Morro........................  33  57  34  65 /  50  70  50  20
Grants..........................  32  59  33  67 /  50  60  40  20
Quemado.........................  35  61  36  68 /  30  80  50  10
Magdalena.......................  38  60  41  67 /  40  60  60  20
Datil...........................  34  58  36  66 /  30  80  50  20
Reserve.........................  31  66  34  74 /  30  70  30  10
Glenwood........................  34  71  38  79 /  20  50  20  10
Chama...........................  23  51  30  58 /  40  50  30  50
Los Alamos......................  34  55  40  61 /  40  50  30  40
Pecos...........................  31  54  34  61 /  50  60  30  40
Cerro/Questa....................  28  51  32  59 /  60  40  20  30
Red River.......................  24  44  26  49 /  70  50  20  40
Angel Fire......................  24  46  25  53 /  70  50  30  40
Taos............................  25  56  30  63 /  50  40  20  30
Mora............................  26  49  29  57 /  70  60  30  60
Espanola........................  35  62  40  69 /  40  40  20  30
Santa Fe........................  37  58  42  62 /  40  50  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  36  62  40  66 /  40  40  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  42  64  45  69 /  30  30  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  43  65  47  71 /  30  30  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  37  67  40  73 /  30  30  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  41  65  45  71 /  30  30  20  20
Belen...........................  43  68  45  74 /  40  30  30  20
Bernalillo......................  40  66  43  72 /  30  30  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  40  67  41  73 /  40  30  30  20
Corrales........................  40  66  43  72 /  30  30  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  42  67  44  74 /  40  30  30  20
Placitas........................  39  63  43  68 /  30  30  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  42  65  45  71 /  30  30  20  20
Socorro.........................  43  69  46  76 /  40  40  40  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  35  57  39  63 /  30  40  30  30
Tijeras.........................  37  60  40  66 /  30  40  30  20
Edgewood........................  34  59  38  65 /  30  40  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  31  61  34  67 /  30  40  30  20
Clines Corners..................  32  56  36  61 /  30  40  30  20
Mountainair.....................  34  61  38  66 /  40  40  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  34  61  38  66 /  40  40  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  39  67  44  71 /  30  30  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  36  58  37  62 /  30  40  20  40
Capulin.........................  30  47  32  58 /  90  60  20  20
Raton...........................  32  54  33  63 /  90  50  20  20
Springer........................  33  58  34  65 /  80  40  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  31  55  33  61 /  60  50  30  40
Clayton.........................  39  56  40  64 /  90  60  20  10
Roy.............................  35  57  37  64 /  80  40  20  20
Conchas.........................  41  64  42  70 /  60  30  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  40  63  42  68 /  40  30  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  42  63  42  69 /  60  30  20  10
Clovis..........................  42  64  43  69 /  40  20  10  10
Portales........................  41  66  42  70 /  30  10  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  41  65  43  70 /  40  20  10  10
Roswell.........................  47  72  49  74 /  20  10  10  10
Picacho.........................  40  65  43  68 /  20  30  20  20
Elk.............................  37  63  40  66 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...71