Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
961 FXUS65 KABQ 101941 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 141 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025 - Slight risk of severe thunderstorms over northeastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening, with a marginal risk elsewhere across eastern NM. Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over east-central NM Monday late Monday afternoon and evening. - Moderate to high risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars today, then moreso Monday and Tuesday. - Scattered virga showers and isolated dry thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong to erratic wind gusts of 40 to 50+ mph over portions of west-central and central NM this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 An unusual weather setup for monsoon season lay across New Mexico this afternoon. Satellite imagery is capturing a shortwave trough digging down into northern NM that appears more amplified than current model analysis is resolving. Outflow from yesterday`s severe thunderstorm activity over eastern CO did indeed send down a frontal boundary that advanced thru east-central NM this morning. It is in the process of stalling and being washed out. Southerly return flow is riding up into southeastern NM bringing moisture in from the Gulf highlighted by Td`s in the 50s. Elsewhere, drier surface conditions are still encamped across western NM into the Rio Grande Valley where Td`s range from the upper 20s at Farmington to upper 30s in Albuquerque. There is a marginal risk of afternoon thunderstorms becoming severe across eastern NM and a slight risk across far northeastern NM where a recent Severe Thunderstorm Watch has just been issued through 8pm MDT. Surface observations at Clayton with northeasterly winds expected to veer southeasterly this afternoon and a Td at 54F support RAP forecasts showing 1700-2100 J/kg SBCAPE underlying 40kts of 0-6km bulk shear in the area. CI along the Raton Pass and Johnson/Bartlett Mesas and the CO Front Range look to skirt this area along the NM/CO border of Colfax and Union Counties later this afternoon and early evening. Individual supercells will be capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts as they progress eastward over the high plains toward the OK/TX Panhandles. Meanwhile, numerical model guidance continues to show scattered virga showers with isolated dry thunderstorms developing ahead of the upper level trough axis over west-central and central NM. Gusty downdraft wind gusts of 40 to 50+ mph will be possible from this activity favoring areas of Catron, Socorro, western Lincoln, and Torrance Counties. Some of this activity will try to enter portions of Valencia, Bernalillo, and Santa Fe Counties this afternoon as well. Drier conditions will favor areas behind the trough axis over far northwestern NM. Elsewhere, a moderate risk for burn scar flash flooding remains for the Ruidoso area. Afternoon convection has already begun along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mts and is favored to steadily migrate northward toward Ruidoso. Drier northwesterly winds at Sierra Blanca Airport support the notion that thunderstorm activity will have a tough time producing heavy rainfall. Nevertheless, the burn scar flash flood risk remains as grounds already received 0.25" to 0.50" as observed in rain gages yesterday. Numerical model guidance is in good agreement that more low-level moisture will progress south and west tonight, riding up the east slopes of the central mountain chain Monday morning. Combined with the trailing side of the shortwave trough and somewhat divergent flow aloft, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are favored in this area Monday afternoon. A Flash Flood Watch will be issued for the Ruidoso area as a result. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Monday`s convective activity favoring areas along the eastern slopes of the central mountain chain will favor a strong outflow of easterly winds pushing thru the gaps of the central mountain chain. Strong east canyon winds at Santa Fe and Albuquerque gusting 20 to 30 mph will be accompanied by an influx of low level moisture pushing to the Continental Divide by Tuesday morning. Some of this moisture will reach as far as the Northwest Plateau near Farmington for a brief period Tuesday morning. Combined with the main monsoon high redeveloping over the Great Basin, this will help drop high temperatures back several degrees Tuesday. The main sensible weather impact will be an increased coverage of afternoon thunderstorm activity initiation along the higher terrain of western, central, and northern NM Tuesday afternoon. Storm motions will generally be toward the south and favor an expansion into central valley areas along and adjacent to the central mountain chain. This will include the Santa Fe and Albuquerque metro areas late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Another Flash Flood Watch for slow moving thunderstorms developing over burn scars looks likely. Wednesday sees the monsoon high slide back over NM with scattered afternoon convection recycling moisture. The monsoon high remains favored to slide east of the region Thursday and beyond allowing for a modest tap of monsoon moisture to advect northward into the Desert Southwest late this coming week and next weekend. This will favor continued daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorm activity favoring west-central, central, northern, and eastern areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will favor KGUP and KFMN with little chance of a virga showers bringing erratic gusty winds to KGUP this afternoon. Winds there subside this evening before returning again Monday afternoon. There is an increased chance for erratic gusty winds from scattered virga showers and isolated dry thunderstorms further south over the Mogollon Rim and Gila NF into the portions of the Rio Grande Valley from KSAF to KABQ to KONM and into the central highlands from K0E0 to Carrizozo. Thunderstorm activity has so far favored development just south and east of KSRR which has a good chance of bringing impacts from erratic gusty winds and ltg to KROW this afternoon and early evening. Meanwhile, strong to potentially severe thunderstorm activity just now developing along the CO Front Range will favor expansion southward along the NM Sangre de Cristo`s before moving eastward from KRTN to KCAO. Thunderstorm activity will also favor areas from KLVS to KTCC this afternoon and early evening as well. Conditions slowly clear late tonight into Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Elevated fire weather conditions across northwestern NM exist where prevailing westerly to northwesterly winds of 10-15mph gusting to 25 mph alongside low humidity. Winds subside tonight here, returning again Monday afternoon for one more round of elevated fire weather conditions. Meanwhile, virga showers over west-central and central NM will produce erratic wind gusts this afternoon and Monday afternoon. Higher low-level moisture currently present over eastern NM will spill into portions of the Rio Grande Valley tonight into Monday morning with a much stronger push westward to at least the Continental Divide Tuesday morning bringing good to excellent recoveries in its wake. Lighter prevailing winds alongside the increased moisture will bring an end to elevated fire weather conditions. Scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms will threaten burn scar flash flooding however, favoring the east slopes of the central mountain chain Monday and expanding westward to areas along the Continental Divide Tuesday. Lighter winds with daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain before moving over surrounding lower elevations will remain the rule Wednesday through the rest of the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 57 92 61 94 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 43 88 46 88 / 0 5 5 40 Cuba............................ 52 88 53 85 / 10 5 5 40 Gallup.......................... 49 91 48 91 / 10 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 54 88 53 86 / 30 0 5 30 Grants.......................... 53 91 53 88 / 20 5 5 30 Quemado......................... 58 88 54 88 / 30 10 10 50 Magdalena....................... 62 89 58 85 / 30 30 20 60 Datil........................... 57 87 54 84 / 30 20 10 60 Reserve......................... 53 94 53 93 / 30 30 10 60 Glenwood........................ 58 98 58 97 / 40 30 20 70 Chama........................... 44 83 45 80 / 5 20 10 60 Los Alamos...................... 57 83 56 81 / 20 40 20 80 Pecos........................... 54 81 52 79 / 40 60 40 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 81 50 80 / 30 60 30 80 Red River....................... 41 70 42 69 / 40 60 30 80 Angel Fire...................... 37 73 37 72 / 40 70 30 80 Taos............................ 49 83 49 83 / 30 50 30 70 Mora............................ 47 73 47 74 / 40 70 40 80 Espanola........................ 56 90 55 89 / 20 40 20 60 Santa Fe........................ 59 84 56 82 / 30 40 30 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 88 55 86 / 30 40 30 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 92 63 90 / 30 30 30 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 94 62 91 / 30 20 20 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 96 61 94 / 30 20 20 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 94 62 92 / 30 20 20 40 Belen........................... 61 96 58 94 / 30 20 20 30 Bernalillo...................... 62 95 60 93 / 30 20 20 50 Bosque Farms.................... 60 96 57 93 / 30 20 20 30 Corrales........................ 63 96 61 93 / 30 20 20 40 Los Lunas....................... 62 96 59 94 / 30 20 20 30 Placitas........................ 62 91 60 88 / 30 30 20 50 Rio Rancho...................... 63 94 61 92 / 30 20 20 40 Socorro......................... 64 98 62 94 / 40 20 30 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 86 54 83 / 30 30 30 60 Tijeras......................... 59 87 56 85 / 30 30 30 60 Edgewood........................ 53 86 52 84 / 30 40 40 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 87 51 84 / 30 40 40 50 Clines Corners.................. 54 78 53 77 / 30 40 40 50 Mountainair..................... 56 87 53 83 / 40 30 40 50 Gran Quivira.................... 55 86 53 83 / 40 40 50 60 Carrizozo....................... 61 89 60 86 / 50 40 40 50 Ruidoso......................... 57 81 53 77 / 50 60 40 70 Capulin......................... 50 71 50 76 / 60 80 50 40 Raton........................... 50 76 50 79 / 60 80 40 50 Springer........................ 51 78 51 81 / 50 80 40 50 Las Vegas....................... 52 76 50 78 / 40 70 50 70 Clayton......................... 57 77 57 82 / 60 60 60 20 Roy............................. 54 78 54 80 / 50 70 60 40 Conchas......................... 61 85 60 86 / 50 50 70 40 Santa Rosa...................... 58 83 57 83 / 40 60 60 50 Tucumcari....................... 60 83 58 83 / 60 40 70 20 Clovis.......................... 64 91 61 88 / 60 30 70 30 Portales........................ 64 92 61 88 / 60 30 70 40 Fort Sumner..................... 63 90 61 88 / 30 30 60 30 Roswell......................... 69 96 67 91 / 40 20 50 30 Picacho......................... 61 88 58 85 / 40 40 50 50 Elk............................. 58 86 55 83 / 40 50 30 60 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24