Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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039 FXUS65 KABQ 091139 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 439 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 433 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025 - A cold front will produce east wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph thru gaps of the central mountain chain predawn this morning from the ABQ east side to Abo Pass and Carrizozo. Overnight lows will be much cooler in the wake of this front Sunday morning. - West winds will strengthen along the east slopes of the central mountain chain and nearby high plains of eastern New Mexico Tuesday. Localized wind gusts around 45 mph are possible from Raton to Las Vegas, Clines Corners, and Vaughn. Temperatures may also warm to near record highs around Roswell Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1131 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 A shortwave perturbation is diving southward across the Great Plains over NE/KS tonight helping to send in a reinforcing frontal push into eastern NM tonight. East winds associated with the frontal passage have reached Clines Corners, and are pushing thru the gaps of the central mtn chain now. A modest gap wind gusting to 20 to 30 mph will be favored thru the Tijeras Canyon into eastern Albuquerque. This east wind dies out thru the morning to near noon as winds veer out of the south along and east of the central mountain chain. Cold air advection will be more notable compared to the prior cold fronts observed Friday and Saturday, knocking high temperatures back 10-15 degrees below normal into the 50s across eastern NM. Highs fall back into the 50s and 60s up and down the Rio Grande Valley, and staying fairly consistent in the 60s thru western NM. Winds lessen Monday becoming light out of the south as the ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS begins to break down and flatten. Temperatures rebound 10-15 across eastern NM back to near normal. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1131 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 Tuesday begins the long term period with the upper ridge to the west breaking down further with strengthening west-northwesterly flow setting up over NM. A lee-side surface low dropping to 1005-1007mb looks to set up over northeastern NM. This will combine with 30-40kt H7 winds overriding the central mountain chain to produce some localized gusty winds Tuesday afternoon over the central highlands. Peak gusts of 40-45mph will be possible in areas from Las Vegas southward thru Clines Corners to Vaughn. The downslope compressional warming component acts to warm temperatures 10-17F further back into the 70s and low 80s over eastern NM. A more moderated warmup of only a few degrees will be observed over central and western NM. Wednesday sees what`s left of the H5 ridge slide eastward across NM lessening the westerly winds over the state. Temperatures stay fairly consistent over central and western NM, falling back several degrees over eastern NM. Forecast confidence begins to lower Thursday as numerical model guidance begins to diverge with the timing of the approach of an upper level low moving into the western CONUS. The GFS suite of ensemble models continue to be more progressive compared to the ENS suite. Dependent on timing, increasing southwesterly winds will arrive into the region toward the end of next week. Precipitation chances begin arising as well into western NM and the northern mountains. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 433 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025 VFR prevails thru the TAF period as east canyon winds subside thru the morning hours. Currently, east canyon winds at KABQ are subsiding and the need for an Airport Weather Warning will continue to decrease, potentially as early as 1230Z to 1300Z. Prevailing wind directions veer out of the south thru central and eastern NM, becoming light and variable most areas by the end of the day and staying that way thru tonight into Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1131 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 Below normal temperatures fill into eastern NM today with easterly winds quickly veering out of the south thru today. Light westerly to northwesterly winds hold onto western NM this afternoon. Temperatures warm back up over eastern NM Monday, and back above normal Tuesday as westerlies return. Locally windy conditions will focus along and east of the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon where peak gusts of 40-45mph will combine with the above normal warmth to produce elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions thru the central highlands. Winds lessen Wednesday before returning Thursday and into Friday. An approaching storm system from the west will bring increasingly active weather late week into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 30 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 60 22 62 23 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 54 26 61 29 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 64 21 66 24 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 63 29 64 32 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 63 23 67 24 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 65 30 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 59 34 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 61 30 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 70 25 71 27 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 73 25 73 29 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 54 26 58 26 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 53 35 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 51 26 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 28 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 44 24 52 26 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 49 11 58 14 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 53 23 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 51 24 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 58 27 65 29 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 54 31 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 26 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 58 37 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 60 34 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 31 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 33 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 62 26 65 28 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 60 31 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 62 26 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 61 30 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 62 26 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 57 35 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 60 34 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 64 33 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 33 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 55 34 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 55 30 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 20 63 24 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 50 26 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 55 30 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 56 28 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 60 32 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 52 29 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 46 21 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 49 19 64 28 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 51 18 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 49 24 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 50 27 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 48 23 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 55 25 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 53 26 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 54 26 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 54 29 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 56 24 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 56 26 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 59 31 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 54 27 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 53 24 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24