514
FXUS65 KABQ 150558 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1158 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1151 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

- Higher flows will continue in rivers, creeks, arroyos, and low
  water crossings through this week, especially along the east
  slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, due to melting snow.

- Smoke from the Greer Fire fire could create hazy conditions with
  low visibility for western and central areas along Highway 60.
  Sensitive populations should also avoid being outside due to
  poorer air quality.

- Strong winds and critical fire weather conditions look to return
  late this week and into early next week. Increased threat of
  rapid fire spread for western and central areas, particularly on
  Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

A strong jetmax rounding the southern periphery of a 554dm H5 low
centered near Yellowstone, WY is bringing a strong spring time dry
slot and high wind event over NM this afternoon. Sierra Blanca
Airport near Ruidoso has been regularly seeing gusts of 55 to 60+
mph since this morning. Widespread southwesterly wind gusts of 25 to
45 mph are present elsewhere across northern and central NM, and the
slate of High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are on track through
the rest of this afternoon into the early evening hours. These winds
have also produced blowing dust reducing visibility to near zero
according to law enforcement reports between Hagerman and Roswell
where a Dust Storm Warning has been issued. The Pacific front
associated with this system will push through western and central NM
late this afternoon. A brief uptick in wind speeds will accompany
this front, and there may be a period from Santa Fe to Albuquerque
that could see a brief gust of 40 to 45 mph with the fropa. This
threat will persist until winds are forecast to diminish this
evening between 6pm to 8pm MDT.

The main H5 low moves over the northern Great Plains with its
associated jetmax quickly exiting out toward the Great Lakes by
Thursday. Elevated westerly flow aloft continues across New Mexico
coupled with a 997-1000mb MSLP lee surface low developing over
southeastern CO. Breezy afternoon westerlies will return most areas
Thursday, with gust 25 to 40 mph winds focused through the east-
central and northeastern plains Thursday afternoon. Winds diminish
again areawide Thursday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Mostly zonal flow will continue to prevail over New Mexico towards
the end of the week, with winds shifting more southwesterly late on
Friday as a weak shortwave moves up from Baja California. Winds on
Friday will be much lighter throughout the state when compared to
Thursday, but conditions will still be breezy along and east of the
central mountain chain where gusts of 20 to 30 kts may be observed.
The shortwave will do little in terms of bringing in Pacific
moisture, but a stream of high clouds look to creep in over
southeastern areas, along with some scattered clouds developing over
northern areas. Overall, Friday looks to be a quite pleasant day for
the Land of Enchantment with temperatures hovering at just around
average for this time of year.

The main focus for the long term period will be the return of strong
west-southwest flow late this week and early next week, which will
create another round of potentially damaging wind gusts and critical
fire weather concerns. A Pacific low pressure system will begin to
drop south into the PNW, with the polar jet once again digging south
into the Desert Southwest alongside this trough. As mentioned in the
previous discussion, a broad sub-1000 mb surface low pressure will
begin to develop over New Mexico, while 700 mb flow aloft will begin
to increase into the 20 to 30 kt range by the afternoon on Saturday.
Therefore, bumped up winds a little bit more for Saturday afternoon
to a breezy 15 to 20 knots throughout the state, with some stronger
gusts over the high terrain in southern and western areas. As the
Pacific low digs further south into the Great Basin on Sunday, flow
aloft will continue to increase. A 100 kt upper level jet streak
will be stretching across northern New Mexico and 700 mb flow will
climb into the 40 to 50 kt range. The high terrain will once again
be pretty gusty, but diurnal heating should be able to mix down the
stronger winds aloft form more widespread 30 kt gusts along the
central highlands and eastern plains.

Guidance begins to differ on the evolution of the low once it ejects
out of the Great Basin, with some solutions taking it north over the
Four Corners and others through central New Mexico. This may affect
how strong and how widespread winds may be on Monday. Overall,
Monday looks to be another windy day, with flow aloft increasing
throughout the day as 700 mb winds look to peak near 65 to 70 kts
over southeastern areas. The strongest gusts will be along and east
of the central mountain chain, therefore lessening the fire weather
threat for western New Mexico, but it still looks to be breezy at 15
to 20 kts. Breezy westerly flow looks to remain through Tuesday as
the low exits east into the Great Plains and a weak ridging pattern
looks to start building over the western CONUS during the middle of
next week.

Aside from wind and fire weather, the passage of this Pacific front
will cool temperatures for Sunday through Tuesday, about 5 to 15
degrees below average for this time of year. Deeper moisture over
western and northern areas look to produce some showers and perhaps
some light snow over the high peaks on Sunday and Monday as the low
crosses the intermountain west. A thunderstorm or two may also
create gusty and erratic winds and locally heavier rain amounts, but
guidance seems to indicate that the bulk of the shower and storm
activity should stay north of the border into Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. West and
southwest winds will become gusty again Thursday afternoon until
sunset, especially across northeast and east central areas along
and north of I-40 where peak gusts will reach between 30-40 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are underway this
afternoon thanks to strong and very dry southwesterly flow over the
state. Widespread gusts of 25 to 45 mph with localized higher gusts
up to 55 to 60+ mph over the central highlands will diminish this
evening. Thursday sees lesser westerly winds relative to today,
coupled again with very low humidity between 10 to 15 percent.
Sustained wind speeds are forecast to reach 15 to 25 mph through the
northeast highlands and plains thanks to a lee side surface low over
southeastern CO. Despite this, the Forecast Fire Danger has been
lowered for Thursday across eastern NM in response to ERCs being
well below average thanks to the recent greenup being observed in
that portion of the state. Ground observations were collected to
corroborate these ERC values, supporting the notion that fuels are
not receptive to rapid fire growth pattern. Given the near marginal
critical fire weather conditions and unreceptive fuels, have elected
to cancel the Fire Weather Watch for Thursday over northeastern NM.

Lesser winds will limit the threat of fire weather Friday and
Saturday, although humidity will still fall to near 10 percent.
Strong southwesterly winds return Sunday and Monday bringing a
likely return of widespread critical fire weather conditions to the
state, especially central and eastern areas. Fuel receptiveness will
again be questions across eastern NM for this event.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  36  69  39 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  60  26  65  28 /   5   0   0   0
Cuba............................  63  32  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  65  26  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  60  30  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  65  28  70  32 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  67  33  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  73  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  69  34  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  72  31  75  30 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  75  34  79  32 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  54  25  59  30 /   5   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  63  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  70  38  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  63  31  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  53  27  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  60  26  58  21 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  64  28  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  64  33  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  72  38  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  66  39  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  73  37  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  76  46  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  75  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  78  43  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  76  44  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  81  40  79  38 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  74  42  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  79  39  78  36 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  75  43  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  79  40  78  38 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  71  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  73  43  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  86  46  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  69  39  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  71  40  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  70  37  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  75  35  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  71  37  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  75  38  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  74  40  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  79  47  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  71  42  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  73  33  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  76  35  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  76  36  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  70  37  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  80  43  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  75  39  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  84  45  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  83  46  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  84  47  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  89  52  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  89  52  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  84  49  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  91  57  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  82  50  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  77  49  80  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...44