636
FXUS65 KABQ 291944
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
144 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through the evening, mainly along and east of the central
  mountain chain of New Mexico. Slow storm motion will keep a low
  risk for flash flooding, mainly on recent burn scars.

- Abundant moisture returns Monday through Thursday allowing for
  greater coverages of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
  and evening. These will be efficient rain producing storms which
  will increase the risk of flash flooding, especially over
  recent burn scars.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and roll off
the high terrain toward the south and southeast through this
evening. Some models are suggesting that a cluster of storms will
develop across east central NM this evening. If this occurs, there
will be higher chances for heavy rainfall along the I-40 corridor,
but confidence is only moderate as the ARW, HRRR and RRFS only
have spotty storms across this area. Any storms should diminish by
midnight or 1am.

Monday continues to look much more active. A back door front will
enter northeast NM and make to the I-40 corridor during the
morning hours. Behind the front, winds will veer around to the
east by the afternoon. Meanwhile, low level southeasterly return
flow will also increase across southeast portions of the CWA. At
H7, the high center will shift from AZ today to CO on Monday. This
will allow for deep easterly flow across eastern NM. Moist upslope
flow onto the Central Mountain Chain will allow numerous storms
to develop in the afternoon. With PWATs rising, these will be
efficient rain producing storms with multiple areas of heavy
rainfall likely. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for both the
Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar and the burn scars surrounding
Ruidoso. Storms will expand across eastern NM through Monday
afternoon and evening, with all locations having good chances at
precipitation. A relative enhancement in storms may occur along
the remnant frontal boundary. Storms will not be as numerous along
and west of the Rio Grande Valley, but moisture will be
sufficient for scattered storms. Given slow storm motions, heavy
rainfall and flash flooding is also a concern outside of burn
scars. The Flash Flood Watch may be expanded if additional heavy
rainfall locations become more certain.

The storms along the Central Mountain Chain, specifically around
the Sandia Mountains, should produce a strong outflow boundary
resulting in a strong gap wind in the ABQ (and to a lesser extent,
Santa Fe) metro area Monday evening. Gusts could reach 50 mph in
the ABQ Metro. The east winds will push the more potent moisture
westward and additional storms may form along this boundary as it
makes it way to the AZ border.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

The influx of moisture across western NM should set the stage for
more storms across western NM Tuesday afternoon, but confidence is
lower regarding the extent of storm coverage across eastern NM.
With abundant cloud cover left over from Monday`s activity, nearly
moist adiabatic mid level lapse rates, and cooler temperatures
forecast, it may be too stable for abundant storms for eastern NM.
However, if an MCV develops Monday evening and lingers across
eastern NM, that may throw a wrench into that thinking, as the MCV
may provide enough lift for additional storms. Meanwhile, the
fresh influx of moisture across western NM, combined with
continued steep mid level lapse rates, should allow for scattered
to numerous storms with the potential for heavy rainfall given the
slow storm motions.

On Wednesday, the upper high will weaken further as an upper low
inches eastward across CA. Southerly flow aloft will return and
continue on Thursday, though may be a little more southwesterly on
Thursday. Both days look to be very active with 1" PWATs
potentially as far west as the AZ border.

The aforementioned low will weaken into a trough and cross NM on
Friday, ushering in drier air aloft. This should substantially
limit the storm coverage on Friday and Saturday. Best bet for
storms each day will be across northeast NM as storms roll off
the higher terrain in CO.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over the high
terrain this afternoon, sans the Chuska and west central
mountains. Storms will generally move toward the south and
southeast through the evening. These storms will be capable of
gusty and erratic winds up to 50kt, small hail and heavy rainfall.
A small cluster of storms may develop across east central NM this
evening and if this occurs, heavy rainfall will be more likely.
Brief MVFR cigs/vsby will also be possible, especially around KSXU
to KTCC where confidence is highest that storms will occur this
evening. These storms will usher an outflow boundary westward,
which will push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain. A
gap wind will develop at KSAF and KABQ this evening with gusts
between 20 and 30kt expected. Storms across eastern NM will slowly
taper off through 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Several hours of single digit RH will persist through early
evening along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. A few dry storms
will be possible across the West Central Basin and Range. A weak
gap wind in the Rio Grande Valley this evening will increase low
level moisture across the west, limiting single digit RH
coverage, and increasing the potential for thunderstorms Monday.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across central
and eastern NM, some with heavy rain, but storms may be a mix of
wet and dry across western NM. A strong gap wind in the Rio Grande
Valley Monday evening will send richer moisture westward, setting
the stage for scattered to numerous thunderstorms across all
areas Tuesday through Thursday. Drier air will punch in on Friday,
limiting storm coverage significantly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  97  62  91 /   0   5   5  10
Dulce...........................  48  88  46  85 /   0  40  10  50
Cuba............................  53  87  54  82 /   0  30  20  40
Gallup..........................  46  94  55  88 /   0   5  10  20
El Morro........................  52  87  55  82 /   0  20  20  40
Grants..........................  49  90  54  85 /   0  20  20  40
Quemado.........................  54  91  57  85 /   0  20  20  50
Magdalena.......................  60  88  58  80 /   5  40  40  60
Datil...........................  55  86  54  79 /   5  30  30  50
Reserve.........................  52  95  52  89 /   5  30  20  60
Glenwood........................  56  96  57  91 /  10  40  20  60
Chama...........................  47  81  45  77 /   0  50  20  60
Los Alamos......................  61  79  56  76 /   0  60  30  70
Pecos...........................  54  81  54  74 /   5  70  40  70
Cerro/Questa....................  52  79  50  77 /   5  70  30  60
Red River.......................  43  69  43  68 /   5  70  40  60
Angel Fire......................  38  71  41  69 /   5  80  40  50
Taos............................  50  81  50  79 /   0  70  30  40
Mora............................  47  76  48  72 /   5  80  40  60
Espanola........................  59  89  57  85 /   0  60  30  50
Santa Fe........................  59  83  57  77 /   5  60  40  60
Santa Fe Airport................  58  86  57  80 /   5  60  30  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  90  62  84 /   0  40  40  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  91  63  85 /   0  30  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  93  62  86 /   0  30  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  92  63  85 /   0  30  30  20
Belen...........................  62  96  62  88 /   0  30  30  20
Bernalillo......................  63  93  62  86 /   0  30  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  61  94  60  86 /   0  30  30  20
Corrales........................  63  93  62  87 /   0  30  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  61  95  62  86 /   0  30  30  20
Placitas........................  64  88  61  82 /   0  40  30  40
Rio Rancho......................  64  93  63  86 /   0  30  30  30
Socorro.........................  67  97  64  88 /   0  30  40  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  85  56  78 /   0  50  30  40
Tijeras.........................  59  87  58  80 /   5  50  40  40
Edgewood........................  55  85  54  78 /   5  60  40  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  85  52  77 /  10  50  40  50
Clines Corners..................  55  78  53  72 /  20  50  50  60
Mountainair.....................  56  86  55  77 /  10  50  40  50
Gran Quivira....................  55  85  55  77 /  10  50  50  50
Carrizozo.......................  63  87  61  79 /  10  50  50  60
Ruidoso.........................  55  78  54  70 /  10  60  50  80
Capulin.........................  51  75  52  73 /  40  80  50  30
Raton...........................  52  79  53  77 /  20  80  50  30
Springer........................  52  80  54  77 /  10  80  40  40
Las Vegas.......................  52  77  51  73 /  10  80  50  60
Clayton.........................  60  80  59  78 /  40  50  60  20
Roy.............................  57  80  57  74 /  30  70  60  40
Conchas.........................  63  87  61  80 /  40  70  60  50
Santa Rosa......................  61  85  60  75 /  50  60  60  50
Tucumcari.......................  62  85  61  79 /  40  60  70  50
Clovis..........................  65  85  63  79 /  40  60  80  60
Portales........................  64  87  62  80 /  30  60  80  60
Fort Sumner.....................  63  89  62  80 /  40  60  70  60
Roswell.........................  68  90  67  82 /  30  50  70  60
Picacho.........................  61  86  60  77 /  20  70  60  70
Elk.............................  58  83  57  76 /  10  70  50  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
NMZ214-215-226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34