879
FXUS65 KABQ 210749
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
149 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus
  across the higher terrain of northern and western NM today then
  mainly over the northwest high terrain Friday. A pattern change
  toward wetter and cooler conditions is possible for northern NM
  Saturday through Monday, expanding to more of the forecast area
  early to mid next week.

- Moderate heat risk will impact most lower elevation locations
  with major heat risk possible in the Four Corners region through
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

A slightly more active day is expected today as guidance shows a
subtle disturbance sliding southwest down the central mt chain.
Sunny skies will allow for strong heating along the east slopes of
the northern mts today with steep lapse rates, surface-based CAPE
>500 J/kg, bulk shear from 20 to 30kt, and PWATs are holding close
to 1". Hi-res models show convective initiation between 1pm and 2pm
along the central mt chain and Cont Divide followed by cells moving
southwest into the RGV and nearby highlands thru sunset. Strong
outflow winds and brief heavy rainfall are possible. The latest
HRRR, RRFS, and HREF probability matched mean show QPF in the 0.25
to 0.50" from the heavier cells. It will be slightly warmer today
with readings approaching 100F around Farmington.

The strong upper high near the Four Corners today will drift west
and weaken slightly Friday. Drier and more stable air aloft will
spread west into more of southern, central, and eastern NM. Clouds
will even have a hard time developing over eastern NM Friday. The
focus for isolated storms will be over the Four Corners region and
northwest high terrain where strong outflow winds and brief heavy
rainfall are possible. Hi-res model guidance and NBM QPF show most
cells producing <0.15". High temps will remain in the upper 90s
across the Four Corners but a couple degrees cooler than today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 134 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

The weekend and early next week are still looking more active with
greater coverage of storms with heavy rainfall and cooler temps.
However, there are changes being introduced on the latest guidance
that lowers confidence on storm coverage and how quickly the onset
of this greater coverage will actually be. The upper high is shown
drifting south down the AZ/NM border Saturday and Sunday while an
unseasonably deep upper level trough sets up over the Great Lakes
region. A moist backdoor front and moist upper level shortwave are
shown moving down the Front Range which helps to force increasing
storm coverage over northern NM Saturday and Sunday. The upper
high then shifts southeast into southern NM Monday then toward
the Permian Basin Tuesday and Wednesday. Monday looks drier than
previously shown for central NM given the high is slower to nudge
south of the area. Meanwhile, deep monsoon moisture slides north
along the western edge of the upper high into AZ and western NM
Tuesday and Wednesday. Another moist backdoor front is then shown
entering northeast NM during this time. The latest WPC QPF thru
next Wednesday shows widespread amounts >0.50" with >2.5" over
the northern mts and northeast NM. There are likely to be areas in
the vicinity of the migrating upper high that see less precip
than advertised while locally heavier amounts occur across the
northern mts and northeast NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Remnant mid level clouds over western NM will dissipate thru
sunrise. A couple patches of MVFR low cigs may attempt to form
along the east slopes of the central mt chain and the nearby
highlands but confidence is low. A larger crop of SHRA/TS will
initiate over the high terrain of central and western NM between
1pm and 2pm Thursday. This activity will move southwest around 10
to 15Kt into nearby highlands and valleys thru sunset. Strong
outflow wind gusts are likely along with MVFR vsbys in heavy rain
from a direct hit.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

The strong upper level high currently near the Four Corners will
drift west and weaken thru Friday. Storm coverage today will focus
between the central mt chain and Continental Divide where gusty
outflow winds and brief heavy rainfall are expected. A mixture of
wet/dry storms are more likely along the Cont Divide. Steering flow
will force storms toward the southwest. The focus Friday will shift
to the Four Corners and the northern mts but most areas are not
likely to see wetting rainfall outside the high terrain. The upper
high is expected to drift south along the NM/AZ border over the
weekend then into southern NM early next week. Meanwhile, a series
of moist backdoor fronts and moist upper level shortwave troughs
begin passing thru the central and southern Rockies. A notable
increase in storm coverage with locally heavy rainfall may begin
over northern NM this weekend then spread to more of the region
early next week, including western NM and the Four Corners. The
latest WPC 7-day precip thru Wednesday night shows rainfall amounts
>0.50" for the entire area with >2.5" across the northeast plains
and northern mts. Forecast confidence on this scenario is highest
for northeast NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  98  67  97  66 /  10  20  10  20
Dulce...........................  93  52  92  51 /  20  20  50  40
Cuba............................  91  57  89  58 /  30  30  20  30
Gallup..........................  94  59  92  57 /  20  20  20  30
El Morro........................  87  58  88  57 /  30  30  30  30
Grants..........................  92  58  91  58 /  20  30  20  30
Quemado.........................  88  58  88  58 /  40  30  30  20
Magdalena.......................  87  62  87  62 /  20  10   5   0
Datil...........................  86  57  86  57 /  20  20  20  10
Reserve.........................  91  56  91  56 /  50  30  30  20
Glenwood........................  92  59  93  59 /  50  20  30  10
Chama...........................  87  51  86  51 /  20  20  60  50
Los Alamos......................  87  61  86  62 /  30  10  30  20
Pecos...........................  85  55  86  56 /  30  10  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  86  54  86  54 /  20   5  20  30
Red River.......................  77  46  77  47 /  20   5  20  30
Angel Fire......................  80  38  80  40 /  20   5  20  20
Taos............................  88  54  89  55 /  20   5  20  30
Mora............................  81  50  81  51 /  20   5  10  20
Espanola........................  95  59  94  60 /  20  10  10  20
Santa Fe........................  86  59  86  61 /  30  10  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  91  58  90  59 /  20  10   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  93  67  92  69 /  20  20   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  94  68  93  68 /  20  20   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  96  66  95  67 /  20  20   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  67  95  67 /  20  10   0  10
Belen...........................  96  64  95  64 /  10  10   0   0
Bernalillo......................  96  65  95  66 /  20  10   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  95  63  95  63 /  10  10   0   5
Corrales........................  96  65  95  66 /  20  10   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  95  64  95  63 /  10  10   0   5
Placitas........................  92  63  91  66 /  20  10   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  95  66  94  67 /  20  10   0  10
Socorro.........................  96  67  95  67 /   5  10   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  60  87  61 /  30  20   5  10
Tijeras.........................  88  62  88  63 /  30  20   5  10
Edgewood........................  89  57  89  58 /  20  10   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  89  53  89  53 /  20   5   0   5
Clines Corners..................  83  58  84  58 /  10   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  87  58  87  59 /  20  10   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  86  58  86  58 /  20  10   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  88  62  88  63 /  10   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  80  56  79  56 /  10   0   5   0
Capulin.........................  83  54  84  54 /   5   5   0  10
Raton...........................  88  53  87  54 /   5   5   5  10
Springer........................  89  53  89  55 /   5   5   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  85  53  84  54 /  20   5   5  10
Clayton.........................  89  61  90  61 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  86  58  86  58 /   5   5   0   5
Conchas.........................  92  64  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  89  62  89  61 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  89  62  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  91  63  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  91  63  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  91  64  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  94  67  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  88  61  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  84  57  84  57 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42