462
FXUS63 KFGF 011452
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
952 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon
  and evening. Risks could include hail larger than half dollar,
  winds greater than 60 mph, and possibly a few tornadoes.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are in the
  forecast for Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is a low
  chance for isolated strong thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Showers in northwestern Minnesota are beginning to make their
way towards the arrowhead, leaving behind clearer skies for the
remainder of your Saturday. Highs in the low to mid 70s expected
across the area. Forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Lightning associated with these showers have been randomly
starting and stopping since originating over the Devils Lake
Basin. These showers are moving fairly slowly to the east across
our forecast area. These showers still look likely to stay north
of highway 200.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...Synopsis...
The upper jet continues to linger along the Canadian border
early this morning. Water vapor imagery shows a pretty decent
little shortwave along the Canadian border near the North
Dakota/Manitoba/Saskatchewan intersection. The regional radar
shows several areas of echoes across North Dakota, one extending
from Bismarck to Pembina and the other closer to the above
mentioned shortwave. Most of this is high based shower activity,
but could still see a few lightning strikes as well. Most CAMs
show this activity continuing to slide east along the Canadian
border and exiting the Lake of the Woods area after sunrise. The
rest of the day will be precipitation free with steady west
winds, resulting in lowering afternoon humidity readings.

Moisture begins to return northward into North Dakota tonight,
although it will be slow. Not seeing much for a low level or
upper jet, although there is weak 850mb warm advection and
elevated instability. Despite this somewhat weak forcing,
several CAMs break out scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly along and south of highway 200, and linger them into
Sunday morning. NBM keeps it more isolated (20 percent chance)
tonight into Sunday morning. If this activity does develop and
linger, it could have some implications on the Sunday afternoon
and evening event (thicker clouds could limit heating in some
areas).

...Sunday afternoon and evening...
Really don`t anticipate a severe weather threat in this FA until
late Sunday afternoon and evening. SPC has covered the entire FA
in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) now in the latest Day 2 Outlook.
There still remains uncertainty in exactly how this event may
unfold. However, it is looking like a surface low and cold
front should be somewhere over central North Dakota by 00z
Monday. Along with precipitable water values rising to 1.25 to
1.50 inches along and ahead of this boundary, surface dewpoints
are also progged to rise up to around 60F. There is a pretty
nice 700mb shortwave that kicks eastward by 00z Monday, although
the upper jet is not very impressive. Most CAM solutions break
out a line of storms just to the west of this FA around 21z
Sunday, potentially reaching the Devils Lake area by 00z Monday.
This line of storms would continue pushing eastward into the Red
River Valley during the evening. The HREF does show the
potential for some longer duration UH tracks during this time
frame. However, not sure exactly how long into the evening the
severe potential would last. Not seeing a good consistent signal
on the strength and focus of the low level jet. It does seem to
be fairly strong, but could focus more north of the Canadian
border.

...Tuesday afternoon and evening...
The next shortwave and good chance for precipitation would be
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Like with the Sunday event, the
available moisture looks good again. The exact degree of
instability is still in doubt, as there could be a fair amount
of clouds (resulting in less heating) out ahead of the wave.
These details will come into better focus in the days ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. KTVF and
KGFK are expected to have brief showers this morning. Clouds
are expected to clear after showers have passed. Starting after
0600z winds are expected to begin shifting to the south and
clouds start to move in ahead of the storms after 12z Sunday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AH/MM
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...MM