Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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273 FXUS61 KRLX 052341 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 741 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A thunderstorm complex is likely to cross this afternoon and evening. A cold front crosses overnight into Saturday, with drier weather in store for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 505 PM Friday... Allowed the Heat Advisory to expire this evening as heat index values begin to lower for the day. Will also be making some adjustments to POPs for the evening timeframe as a new round of convection begins to develop just west of the Ohio River. This seems to tie in well with newly updated CAMs for this evening, indicating another active round of strong to possibly severe storms from now until around 11 PM tonight. As of 1220 PM Friday... Mostly sunny skies, especially across the southern half of the forecast area will allow significant destabilization through early this afternoon ahead of an advancing shortwave. Convection associated with this feature is moving through eastern KY and is expected to intensify as it reaches our western counties around 2-3 PM. With the forcing from the aforementioned shortwave, expect activity to continue/develop into a linear structure with bowing segments with wind damage as the primary threat. Although low level turning is minimal, any northeasterly surges in this line will need to be monitored for brief QLCS tornadoes as southwesterly 0-3KM shear vectors approach 30KTs, but the overall threat for tornadoes is low. Localized very heavy rainfall rates with this activity may also yield some localized flash flooding, especially where more significant rain has fallen in the last 24 hours. Overall, this activity should be fair progressive, except for any northeast surges which could yield at least some training. Think the threat remains isolated enough to forgo any flash flood watches. Cold frontal passage overnight may yield some additional non-severe showers and storms prior to exiting east by Saturday morning. In the wake of afternoon and evening precipitation, will see at least some patchy fog or low stratus heading into Saturday morning. After any morning fog burns off Saturday is expected to be a mainly quiet day - with slightly cooler and less humid conditions. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Friday... High pressure should allow for clear to mostly clear skies and dry weather through the period. Lower dew points and calm winds under the high pressure will yield cooler overnight temps, especially Saturday night, when lows will be down into the 60s area-wide. We can also expect some valley fog, with chances a bit higher on Saturday night compared to Sunday night. Highs on Sunday look to be a bit above normal, with mid-70s to mid-80s in higher terrain and upper 80s to lower 90s in the lowlands. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1245 PM Friday... Southwest flow returns on Monday, along with the heat and humidity, and some showers and storms may start to creep into the higher terrain and the southern coalfields that evening. However, the bulk of shower and storm potential looks to hold off until Tuesday or Tuesday night, when an upper-level trough may push a front through the area. That said, there is some disagreement among both deterministic and ensemble models on the timing of the front`s passage, with some solutions not having the upper-trough push the front through until Wednesday. The timing uncertainty has actually increased a bit from yesterday, so we don`t have as many Likely POPs (55-75%) on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and the Chance POPS (25-55%) are `smeared` over a broader time frame, stretching from Tuesday through Wednesday evening. We should be able to tighten up and increase POPs in the coming days as models come into better agreement on timing. Any ridging behind the front may be on the `dirty` side, so at least some shower and t-storm chances remain in the forecast for Thursday. On the temperature side of things, Monday will be quite hot, with highs mainly low to mid-90s in the lower elevations. We`ll have to monitor the dew point forecast closely for Heat Advisory potential. As of right now, it looks like dew points may not increase too much Temps may get knocked down towards normal by Wednesday and Thursday due to the eventual frontal passage, but at this time it does not look like a very strong push of cooler or drier air. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 741 PM Friday... Radar trends at the time of writing depict another decent round of showers and strong thunderstorms crossing through the Ohio River Valley. Storms will continue to track northeastward this evening out ahead of a cold front. Activity is anticipated to settle down through the overnight hours as the front passes through the region. In combination with the front, leftover moisture from today`s rain will set forth the potential for patchy fog and/or low level stratus Saturday morning across most terminals. After sunrise, low level restrictions will erode and give way to high pressure in the wake of the frontal passage. Winds become light after sunset this evening and remain the case into the morning on Saturday. Light flow out of the west/northwest will then take shape in the post-frontal environment during the afternoon and evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development of fog and MVFR stratocu/IFR stratus overnight tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H M H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H L H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H M M H H M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are forecast. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/JP NEAR TERM...MEK/JP SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...MEK