182
FXUS65 KBOU 011731
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1131 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon showers/thunderstorms possible today, strongest from
  Morgan County east in the late afternoon/evening.

- Still a chance of a couple severe storms Sunday over the
  northeast corner of the state

- Summer heat through most of next week, with a few 90 degree
  readings over the plains.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Forecast on track for today. Observations show the surface
trough/dry line setting up over the eastern plains, well east of
the Urban Corridor. Weak showers and thunderstorms are expected
over the higher terrain and across the Front Range. A few gusts to
around 50 mph will be possible with the storms, though gusts of
30-40 mph will be more common. The stronger and possibly severe
storms will be along and east of the dry line with large hail and
damaging winds possible. An isolated tornado also can` be ruled
out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The thermal ridge amplifies today underneath largely zonal flow,
with temperatures climbing approximately 10F for the plains/urban
corridor and mostly 5 degrees or less in the mountains. Meanwhile,
a weak shortwave will traverse northeast Colorado. Ample
instability in excess of 1,000 J/Kg should be in place across the
eastern plains come the afternoon, aligning with an area of
enhanced surface moisture with dewpoints into the 50`s. Those
numbers will be closer to 35-40F with increased proximity to the
foothills. Despite the humbling past couple of days of convective
forecasts across the urban corridor, believe the notably drier
conditions near the surface and more marginal instability should
prevent development of any overly strong thunderstorms, instead
favoring mostly high-based showers and thunderstorms for the I-25
corridor and mountains. Conditions will become progressively more
favorable for deeper convection late afternoon and into the
evening as storms push into the eastern plains, with the greatest
potential for severe hail and winds or an isolated tornado focused
generally from Morgan County eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Sunday will see further warming, with downslope flow and lee
troughing on the increase. While most areas continue to dry, low
level moisture appears to hold over the northeast plains. When
combined with daytime heating, MLCAPE near 1000-1500 J/kg and
still sufficient shear will result in potential of a severe storm
or two. Appears the main chance of that would be east of a
Sterling to Akron line. With regard to the heat, Denver will have
a chance of seeing it`s first 90F degree day. However, we do see
enough mid and upper level moisture for convective cloudiness in
the afternoon which could very well keep most highs on the plains
in the upper 80s, despite the downslope. Outside of the northeast
plains, it appears there is just enough moisture for virga and/or
a passing light shower/weak storm, but that will spell gusty
outflow winds and enhanced downslope breezes off the Front Range.

Monday will feature a continuation of very warm weather with a
flat ridge spreading across the Central Rockies. High temperatures
should warm another degree or two with a little less convective
cloud cover and the flat ridging, so many plains locations should
reach 90F. We`ll still have a chance of high based late day
shower/storm over the mountains and northern border area.

By Monday night and Tuesday, a passing shortwave across the
northern U.S. will push a "cold" front across northeast Colorado.
We`ll use that term loosely, since this will be a relatively
shallow push and warm temperatures remain aloft. Nonetheless,
we`ll likely shave a few degrees off our highs for Tuesday. Warmer
weather should then return for Wednesday with near 90, before
gradual cooling (at least in the ensembles) is indicated for the
end of next week. There is a fair amount of uncertainty here, and
any chance of meaningful precipitation will likely hold off until
at least Friday or Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Light and variable winds are expected continue until showers and
thunderstorms develop. The showers and storms in the Denver area
are expected to be weak and high-based. Gusty outflow winds will
occur with the convection with a few wind shifts expected for the
Denver airports between 20Z and 01Z. Convection dies off after 01Z
and winds slowly return to south/southwest drainage flow Saturday
evening.

For Sunday, VFR to prevail. Any shower/thunderstorm activity is
expected to stay well north of the Denver area. West-northwest
winds will increase after 18Z with gusts to 25 knots.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

With the arrival of summer heat, snowmelt season and runoff will
really get rolling over the next few days. Hydrologic forecasts
from the River Forecast Centers show a few streams getting to
action stage by Monday or Tuesday, which means flows will be high
and fast but flooding threat appears limited. Please use caution
and respect these fast moving and cold flows in the high country.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...Rodriguez
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Meier
HYDROLOGY...Barjenbruch