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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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584 FXUS61 KRLX 070601 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 201 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings dry weather for the weekend. Increasing southwesterly flow yields increasingly hot and humid conditions Monday. Rain chances return for mid-week and beyond. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 200 AM Sunday... High thin cloud is likely to keep valley fog forming overnight thinner across southeast portions of the area. Patchy stratocumulus forming may further complicate the overnight fog forecast, at least across central WV. The forecast is otherwise on track. As of 1032 PM Saturday... Increased stratus coverage along the higher terrain for late this evening into the overnight timeframe. Also opted to adjust temperatures, especially in locations under aforementioned cloud coverage that have kept temps a few degrees warmer than anticipated. As of 705 PM Saturday... Freshened up temps/dew points/sky conditions for this evening to remain on track with current observations and satellite trends. Dissipation of today`s fair weather cumulus at the time of writing will set the stage for sufficient radiational cooling overnight, yielding the patchy to locally dense fog possible for Sunday morning. As of 215 PM Saturday... The next 30 hours look about as benign as can be as far as summer weather goes across the region. High pressure will remain overhead, keeping us dry, with just puffy fair-weather cumulus noted over the CWA. Most of those clouds should dissipate overnight, and clear and calm conditions will combine with the recent rain to allow for fog formation across the area, densest in the valleys. We could see some patchy fog form as early as midnight, especially in the higher valleys, and it will spread from there through the rest of the night. Most fog should dissipate within a couple hours of sunrise, and Sunday looks to be another sunny to partly cloud day across the area. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1240 PM Saturday... Mid-level troughing moving into the Upper Mid-West Sunday night will yield increasing southwesterly flow opening up the taps on Gulf moisture into the region once again. This yields surface dew points increasing back into the lower 70s by Monday afternoon amid afternoon temperatures across the lower elevations in the lower to mid 90s for both Monday and Tuesday with heat index values approaching triple digits. Will need to keep an eye on potential for a heat advisory for both days. These hot and humid days will also yield at least some atmospheric instability, despite rather poor mid- level lapse rates with isolated to perhaps scattered diurnally enhanced convection with the best chances closer to the higher terrain. The aforementioned mid-level troughing moves into the Middle Ohio Valley late Tuesday afternoon with an associated cold front. This should serve to focus chances for showers and storms. Deep layer shear increases to around 40KTs Tuesday afternoon, contingent on timing of cold frontal passage this could yield a window for some organized stronger convection, overall limited by instability due poor lapse rates. With steering flow nearly normal to frontal motion could see some training with very efficient rainfall production should instability come in a bit stronger than advertised, but for now the threat for both severe storms and flooding appears low. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1240 PM Saturday... In the wake of cold frontal passage Tuesday night into Wednesday, upper level southwesterly flow progressively weakens as high pressure over the Atlantic bulges east. This effectively cuts the region off from better mid-level lapse rates from the Desert Southwest while continually pumping tropical moisture toward the Atlantic Coastal Plain. This yields 99th percentile moisture values on the coastal plain with mere 80th to 90th percentile (around 1.6 to 1.9" PWATs) over a bulk of the forecast area, highest closest to the mountains. Despite the aforementioned poor mid-level lapse rates, afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s (lowlands) and lower to mid 70s (mountains) should yield diurnally enhanced convection through the balance of the work week with the greatest chances in the vicinity of the higher terrain in diurnal upslope flow. Flow through the column will be fairly weak with deep layer shear ranging from around 10 to 20KTs. This may yield somewhat more persistent cellular clusters than dead flow up and down convection and with the aforementioned juicy column coupled with deep warm cloud depths, this could yield some localized flooding issues in any more persistent and efficient convection. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 AM Sunday... High pressure with its clear, calm conditions will promote areas of IFR to VLIFR dense fog early Sunday morning given sufficient low level moisture in place. With the exception of BKW, all terminals will see a deterioration to IFR to VLIFR visibility and/or ceilings shortly after 8Z, and continuing until sunrise. High thin cloud is likely to keep valley fog thinner across southeast portions of the area. Patchy stratocumulus forming may further complicate the overnight fog forecast across central WV. Either of these factors may affect CRW, CKB or EKN. After the erosion of fog/stratus Sunday morning, VFR conditions take center stage once more, with an afternoon cumulus field. High pressure will keep flow light surface and aloft through Sunday, generally northeast to north during the day. Sunday night will begin clear and calm. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of dense fog development overnight could vary from the forecast, owing in part to high cloud southeast, and patchy stratocu. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 07/07/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L M M M L H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L L M M M L H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L L M L L H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... Valley fog possible again overnight Sunday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/JP NEAR TERM...MEK/FK/TRM SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...TRM