273
FXUS61 KRLX 052341
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
741 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A thunderstorm complex is likely to cross this afternoon and
evening. A cold front crosses overnight into Saturday, with
drier weather in store for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 505 PM Friday...

Allowed the Heat Advisory to expire this evening as heat index
values begin to lower for the day.

Will also be making some adjustments to POPs for the evening
timeframe as a new round of convection begins to develop just
west of the Ohio River. This seems to tie in well with newly
updated CAMs for this evening, indicating another active round
of strong to possibly severe storms from now until around 11 PM
tonight.

As of 1220 PM Friday...

Mostly sunny skies, especially across the southern half of the
forecast area will allow significant destabilization through early
this afternoon ahead of an advancing shortwave. Convection
associated with this feature is moving through eastern KY and is
expected to intensify as it reaches our western counties around 2-3
PM. With the forcing from the aforementioned shortwave, expect
activity to continue/develop into a linear structure with bowing
segments with wind damage as the primary threat. Although low level
turning is minimal, any northeasterly surges in this line will need
to be monitored for brief QLCS tornadoes as southwesterly 0-3KM
shear vectors approach 30KTs, but the overall threat for tornadoes
is low.

Localized very heavy rainfall rates with this activity may also
yield some localized flash flooding, especially where more
significant rain has fallen in the last 24 hours. Overall, this
activity should be fair progressive, except for any northeast surges
which could yield at least some training. Think the threat remains
isolated enough to forgo any flash flood watches.

Cold frontal passage overnight may yield some additional non-severe
showers and storms prior to exiting east by Saturday morning.

In the wake of afternoon and evening precipitation, will see at
least some patchy fog or low stratus heading into Saturday morning.
After any morning fog burns off Saturday is expected to be a mainly
quiet day - with slightly cooler and less humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

High pressure should allow for clear to mostly clear skies and
dry weather through the period. Lower dew points and calm winds
under the high pressure will yield cooler overnight temps,
especially Saturday night, when lows will be down into the 60s
area-wide. We can also expect some valley fog, with chances a
bit higher on Saturday night compared to Sunday night. Highs on
Sunday look to be a bit above normal, with mid-70s to mid-80s in
higher terrain and upper 80s to lower 90s in the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Friday...

Southwest flow returns on Monday, along with the heat and
humidity, and some showers and storms may start to creep into
the higher terrain and the southern coalfields that evening.
However, the bulk of shower and storm potential looks to hold
off until Tuesday or Tuesday night, when an upper-level trough
may push a front through the area.

That said, there is some disagreement among both deterministic
and ensemble models on the timing of the front`s passage, with
some solutions not having the upper-trough push the front
through until Wednesday. The timing uncertainty has actually
increased a bit from yesterday, so we don`t have as many Likely
POPs (55-75%) on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and the Chance POPS
(25-55%) are `smeared` over a broader time frame, stretching
from Tuesday through Wednesday evening. We should be able to
tighten up and increase POPs in the coming days as models come
into better agreement on timing. Any ridging behind the front
may be on the `dirty` side, so at least some shower and t-storm
chances remain in the forecast for Thursday.

On the temperature side of things, Monday will be quite hot,
with highs mainly low to mid-90s in the lower elevations. We`ll
have to monitor the dew point forecast closely for Heat Advisory
potential. As of right now, it looks like dew points may not
increase too much Temps may get knocked down towards normal by
Wednesday and Thursday due to the eventual frontal passage, but
at this time it does not look like a very strong push of cooler
or drier air.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 741 PM Friday...

Radar trends at the time of writing depict another decent round
of showers and strong thunderstorms crossing through the Ohio
River Valley. Storms will continue to track northeastward this
evening out ahead of a cold front. Activity is anticipated to
settle down through the overnight hours as the front passes
through the region. In combination with the front, leftover
moisture from today`s rain will set forth the potential for
patchy fog and/or low level stratus Saturday morning across most
terminals. After sunrise, low level restrictions will erode and
give way to high pressure in the wake of the frontal passage.

Winds become light after sunset this evening and remain the case
into the morning on Saturday. Light flow out of the
west/northwest will then take shape in the post-frontal
environment during the afternoon and evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development of fog and MVFR stratocu/IFR
stratus overnight tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JP
NEAR TERM...MEK/JP
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...MEK