-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
987
FXUS61 KALY 201953
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
353 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather for most of the region through this weekend and
through Tuesday, with just an isolated shower possible in
western New England Saturday. Chances of showers increase
Tuesday night into Wednesday with unsettled weather conditions
for mid week. Temperatures become seasonable today and continues
for next week, with a few locations seeing cooler than normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Clouds in western New England breaking up, while it is sunny
elsewhere. There are some signals in sources of
guidance/ensembles that some moisture and upper energy will wrap
around the northern periphery of the coastal storm, and back
west back toward western New England and possibly just over the
NY border into eastern NY around the Hudson River and points
east.

That scenario is very uncertain and would be toward daybreak if
the clouds were to get that far west. A side door cold front
will continue to approach from eastern and northeastern New
England, which could provide some low level forcing that could
also support the westward expansion of the clouds.

Outside of that potential for clouds, which would prevent
temperatures from falling as much as they could, it will be
mostly clear with light to calm winds. So, radiational cooling
and some patchy fog in areas where it will be mostly clear. Some
high clouds will also filter in from the west but should not
prevent temperatures from quickly falling into the lower to mid
50s, with around 50 northern areas, and a few upper 50s where
there may be a bit of cloud cover that moves in later tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Western edge of the more solid cloud cover reaches somewhere
near the NY and New England border Saturday, then the coastal
storm finally begins to exit. A sprinkle cannot be ruled out in
the Berkshires, southern VT and NW CT. The side door cold front
tracks west through our region and boundary layer temperatures
will cool a little as winds will be light from the east and
southeast. Highs Saturday in the 70s with around 70 in higher
terrain and western New England.

A mix of mix and high clouds is expected Saturday night through
Monday as upper energy in the Great Lakes weakens and lifts
north and east, missing eastern NY and western New England. So,
cooler weather from the north and east and continued dry, while
some mid and high clouds from the weakening system north and
west of us.

Highs Sunday around 70 to mid 70s and some 60s higher terrain.
Highs Monday in the upper 60s to lower 70s and cooler in higher
elevations. Some thickening clouds Monday as flat upper ridging
in our region exits and stronger upper energy begins its
approach from the west.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Upper system approaches from the west and the old boundary
pushes east as a diffuse warm front Monday night through
Tuesday. Mainly dry but more increase in the clouds through
Tuesday. Highs Tuesday in the 60s with around 60 higher terrain.

Increasing low level forcing, upper dynamics and moisture
advection will support rain chances Tuesday night through
Friday, with the best chances Tuesday night and Wednesday. Still
as the upper energy weakens later Wednesday through Friday and
upper ridging may try to build back into the region, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur through the
period, with very slowly decreasing coverage each day.

Highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 60s with around 60 higher
terrain. Highs Friday, with continued decrease in coverage of
showers, warming just a little, in the upper 60s to lower 70s
and lower to mid 60s higher elevations.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail across all
terminals this afternoon with clouds streaming into the region
on the outskirts of a coastal system located south and east of
the Long Island Coast. KPSF has seen the cloudiest conditions
thus far today, being the closest to the influence of the nearby
system and as such has experienced MVFR ceilings throughout the
course of the morning. While visible satellite and latest obs
show some improvement, included a TEMPO for MVFR ceiling heights
over the next couple of hours until consistent improvement is
noted as is suggested by latest forecast soundings.

Throughout the overnight period tonight, cloud coverage looks to
be relatively variable. The fair-weather cumulus about the
region will dissipate, but with the coastal storm remaining
within reach, some additional bands of clouds will stream into
the region. Latest guidance points towards higher cloud bases
than previous runs, but largely VFR conditions should prevail.
Anticipated breaks in cloud coverage could aid in the
radiational cooling necessary to generate some patchy fog/mist
especially at the notorious KGFL terminal. Included a TEMPO to
reflect MVFR visibility for now, but this could be amended to
IFR in future updates should confidence increase. KPSF could
develop an MVFR ceiling again tomorrow morning, so added a TEMPO
for this as well as confidence is not high in those heights
being maintained much past the early morning hours.

Throughout the 18z cycle, winds will remain light with sustained
speeds generally ranging from 2-5 kt. Winds will be generally
variable to start before prevailing out of an east-northeast
direction by tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Gant