556
FXUS61 KRLX 051651
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1251 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A thunderstorm complex is likely to cross this afternoon and
evening. A cold front crosses overnight into Saturday, with
drier weather in store for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Friday...

Mostly sunny skies, especially across the southern half of the
forecast area will allow significant destabilization through early
this afternoon ahead of an advancing shortwave. Convection
associated with this feature is moving through eastern KY and is
expected to intensify as it reaches our western counties around 2-3
PM. With the forcing from the aforementioned shortwave, expect
activity to continue/develop into a linear structure with bowing
segments with wind damage as the primary threat. Although low level
turning is minimal, any northeasterly surges in this line will need
to be monitored for brief QLCS tornadoes as southwesterly 0-3KM
shear vectors approach 30KTs, but the overall threat for tornadoes
is low.

Localized very heavy rainfall rates with this activity may also
yield some localized flash flooding, especially where more
significant rain has fallen in the last 24 hours. Overall, this
activity should be fair progressive, except for any northeast surges
which could yield at least some training. Think the threat remains
isolated enough to forgo any flash flood watches.

Cold frontal passage overnight may yield some additional non-severe
showers and storms prior to exiting east by Saturday morning.

In the wake of afternoon and evening precipitation, will see at
least some patchy fog or low stratus heading into Saturday morning.
After any morning fog burns off Saturday is expected to be a mainly
quiet day - with slightly cooler and less humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

Only the chance for some showers and drizzle will remain Saturday
morning as a cold front pushes eastward out of the area. Clearing
skies and drier weather will commence as high pressure swiftly
rushes in to fill the gap.

This dry spell will last through Sunday with high temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands on Saturday and upper 80s
to lower 90s on Sunday, with the mountains ranging in the lower 70s
to mid 80s. These temperatures are above normal for this time of
year. Dew points will also be backing off some starting Saturday
afternoon, allowing for a less oppressive feel as they drop from the
70s into the 60s. Overnight lows will remain around normal across
the lowlands to slightly above in the mountains with low to mid 60s
expected for all each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Friday...

Southwest flow returns on Monday, along with the heat and
humidity, and some showers and storms may start to creep into
the higher terrain and the southern coalfields that evening.
However, the bulk of shower and storm potential looks to hold
off until Tuesday or Tuesday night, when an upper-level trough
may push a front through the area.

That said, there is some disagreement among both deterministic
and ensemble models on the timing of the front`s passage, with
some solutions not having the upper-trough push the front
through until Wednesday. The timing uncertainty has actually
increased a bit from yesterday, so we don`t have as many Likely
POPs (55-75%) on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and the Chance POPS
(25-55%) are `smeared` over a broader time frame, stretching
from Tuesday through Wednesday evening. We should be able to
tighten up and increase POPs in the coming days as models come
into better agreement on timing. Any ridging behind the front
may be on the `dirty` side, so at least some shower and t-storm
chances remain in the forecast for Thursday.

On the temperature side of things, Monday will be quite hot,
with highs mainly low to mid-90s in the lower elevations. We`ll
have to monitor the dew point forecast closely for Heat Advisory
potential. As of right now, it looks like dew points may not
increase too much Temps may get knocked down towards normal by
Wednesday and Thursday due to the eventual frontal passage, but
at this time it does not look like a very strong push of cooler
or drier air.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Friday...

A cluster or line segments of thunderstorms are likely to cross
mainly southern portions of the area this afternoon and
evening.

Patchy MVFR stratocumulus will lift and scatter out later
this morning, yielding VFR conditions into this afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms are most likely across southern sites
later this afternoon and evening, as a convective complex moves
across. A shower or thunderstorm is possible most anywhere
tonight, as a cold front approaches. Any thunderstorm this
afternoon and evening can produce brief IFR conditions and
strong wind gusts.

Patchy valley fog forming again overnight tonight could impact
TAF sites with MVFR to IFR visibility, especially where
thunderstorms hit. MVFR stratocumulus may also form.

Surface flow outside thunderstorms will be light southwest
today and tonight. Moderate west flow aloft this morning will
become light southwest this afternoon, and then light to
moderate west overnight tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of MVFR stratocu may vary this
morning, with IFR stratus briefly possible early. Thunderstorms
this afternoon may develop or arrive sooner than currently
forecast. Development of fog and MVFR stratocu/IFR stratus
overnight tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR in low stratus or fog possible early Saturday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ006-013>015-
     025-026.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...TRM