Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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196 FXUS61 KRLX 011201 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 801 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and dry to start the work week, then temperatures warm for Tuesday. Next chance for rain arrives late Wednesday. Semi- stationary cold front expected on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 757 AM Monday... Updated cloud cover in/near the mountains over the next few hours given BKN/OVC skies at present in some areas courtesy of stratocu. Stratocu will gradually breakup throughout the morning across the aforementioned areas, leading to a beautiful day ahead across the region. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 257 AM Monday... Fresher and drier north to northeast flow provides stable conditions through tonight, courtesy of a broad high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Expect mostly clear skies and comfortable temperatures with dewpoints lowering into the upper 40s, and afternoon temperatures ranging from the upper 70s across the lowlands, into the mid 60s higher elevations. Lows tonight will be below normal as well with temperatures mainly in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Monday... Beginning Tuesday, there will be southerly flow going into effect along with mostly clear skies and high pressure which will all bring temperatures back up to above normal for this time of year. Temperatures will continue to climb into Wednesday although high pressure at the surface will fleet toward the east, but we will have upper level ridging slowing down the next system to approach from the west Wednesday. This system will bring a cold front into the area by Wednesday night bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. The front will hang up across the area into Thursday due to high pressure south of the area creating weak zonal flow parallel to the front. Southeasterly flow will be orientated almost perpendicular to the front which will bring in moisture creating more potential for shower activity along with heavy downpours which could cause some excessive rainfall and localized flooding issues. If the 850mb flow becomes more southerly then a Maddox upper level ridge pattern setup may come forth bringing a greater risk for flash flooding. Due to weak upper level flow and the frontal boundary orientated west to east along the 500mb ridge axis this pattern is known to be associated with many flash flood events. This occurs related to synoptic scale subsidence suppressing convection which allows diabatic heating processes to steepen lapse rates and also accumulate an abundant amount of moisture. These frontal types are common during the warm season when dynamics are weak. With moisture in the upper levels on Thursday this could spark some training cells along the frontal boundary which could promote more flash flooding potential into Friday when the front finally lifts out due to the next system from entering the region bringing another front which will be more north to south orientated. The heaviest rainfall will be on the warm side of the front or near the 500mb large-scale ridge axis with dewpoint depression 5 degrees C or less. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Monday... The aforementioned front on Friday associated with another system coming from the northwest will drags its cold front through late Friday night into Saturday. The good news is this feature will push the semi-stationary boundary out, however with two frontal boundaries interacting in the manner that the models are displaying will create another day of excessive rainfall potential which may lead to water issues, but this far out things could change for the better. So we have an active weather pattern continuing through the weekend with a short break possibly on Sunday. Thereafter, more activity is hinted by the long rang models, however that far out and with model inconsistency elected to accept central guidance which equated to low chances for shower and thunderstorm activity, mostly diurnal, for the rest of this period and beyond through day 8 (Monday). && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 625 AM Monday... Satellite imagery shows low level stratus gradually dissipating along the eastern mountains and western foothills early this morning. Expect mostly clear skies by 15Z with widespread VFR conditions prevailing through the period courtesy of a broad surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Winds at 10 knots or less will prevail across most sites, gusting up to 22 knots at mainly during the afternoon hours. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus may last longer than expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ/GW NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...ARJ