Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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205 FXUS61 KRLX 011822 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 222 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and dry to start the work week, then temperatures warm for Tuesday. Next chance for rain arrives late Wednesday. Semi- stationary cold front expected on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1100 AM Monday... BKN/OVC stratocu has broken up across the higher terrain, with just a FEW/SCT field across portions of the lowlands. With a significant dry layer aloft and progged mixing heights up to ~ 4-5 kft, did lower dew points across the region through this evening. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 757 AM Monday... Updated cloud cover in/near the mountains over the next few hours given BKN/OVC skies at present in some areas courtesy of stratocu. Stratocu will gradually breakup throughout the morning across the aforementioned areas, leading to a beautiful day ahead across the region. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 257 AM Monday... Fresher and drier north to northeast flow provides stable conditions through tonight, courtesy of a broad high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Expect mostly clear skies and comfortable temperatures with dewpoints lowering into the upper 40s, and afternoon temperatures ranging from the upper 70s across the lowlands, into the mid 60s higher elevations. Lows tonight will be below normal as well with temperatures mainly in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 155 PM Monday... Key Point: * Chances for rain and storms return Wednesday into Thursday. An upper level ridge will be present over the southeastern US while a low traverses central Canada. High pressure should allow dry weather to persist into Wednesday morning before ridging compresses south and a shortwave pivoting around the outskirts of the upper low steers a cold front towards the Middle Ohio Valley. Chances of rain and storms are expected to spread northwest to southeast across the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as the front stalls in the vicinity of the northern CWA border. Isolated strong to severe storms could be possible mainly along and west of the Ohio River Wednesday evening. With precipitable water values climbing to 2 or more inches, heavy downpours are also likely to accompany storms and could eventually lead to localized flash flooding in poor drainage areas or locations that are impacted by multiple storms late Wednesday or Thursday. Temperatures warm above normal on Wednesday, with mid 70s to upper 80s expected for the mountains and 90s in the lowlands. While still rather warm, clouds and precipitation should keep Thursday`s highs a few degrees lower than the previous day. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 155 PM Monday... Key Points: * Unsettled late week into the weekend. * Temperatures remain near to above normal through early next week. The long term forecast period starts out with a frontal boundary lingering just north of the CWA while a low and upper shortwave trough depart the Central Plains. This system tracks into the Great Lakes region on Friday, lifts the stalled boundary to the north as a warm front, and then ushers a cold front across the area this weekend. High pressure may slide in at the surface early next week, however, daytime heating and shortwave energy passing overhead could still support some afternoon showers and storms. Temperatures are expected to be near to above normal through early next week, with highs ranging from 80s to 90s in the lowlands and mid 70s to upper 80s along the mountains. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 210 PM Monday... VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period across much of the area. The one exception will be with patchy valley fog tonight, primarily across the river valleys, with the potential for MVFR/IFR restrictions late tonight at EKN. VCFG fog has been coded into CRW/PKB for steam fog from associated nearby rivers. Any fog that develops overnight lifts/dissipates by ~ 12Z on Tuesday, with a bit of fair weather Cu developing by late morning. North or northeast surface flow is expected today, with gusts of 15-20 kts possible through early this evening. Calm or light southeast flow is expected tonight, with southeast flow continuing on Tuesday. Gusts of 15-20 kts are possible late tonight into Tuesday in/near the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog tonight, high otherwise. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and timing tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JLB/GW NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...GW