Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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040 FXUS61 KRLX 012313 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 713 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and dry to start the work week, then temperatures warm for Tuesday. Next chance for rain arrives late Wednesday. Semi- stationary cold front expected on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 710 PM Monday... No changes necessary. As of 230 PM Monday... Surface high pressure will traverse north of the region today and tonight, resulting in a beautiful start to the work week. At present, fair weather Cu has largely dissipated across the region, with near wall to wall sunshine expected for the rest of the day outside a bit of high level clouds later this evening. High temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 70s across the lowlands, with mid 60s to low 70s in the mountains. A chilly night is ahead across the forecast area given mostly clear skies and relatively light boundary layer flow. Given afternoon mixing, did tweak overnight temperatures down across much of the forecast area to ~ 10th percentile of central guidance, if not slightly lower in some areas. This translates into upper 40s and 50s for the lowlands, with 40s in the mountains. A few of the typically colder mountain valleys could dip into the upper 30s. River valley steam fog is anticipated late tonight in some areas, but don`t anticipate it being overly widespread. Return flow on Tuesday results in a significant warmup across the region amid continued dry weather and some fair weather Cu. High temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, but humidity remains rather low by early July standards. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 155 PM Monday... Key Point: * Chances for rain and storms return Wednesday into Thursday. An upper level ridge will be present over the southeastern US while a low traverses central Canada. High pressure should allow dry weather to persist into Wednesday morning before ridging compresses south and a shortwave pivoting around the outskirts of the upper low steers a cold front towards the Middle Ohio Valley. Chances of rain and storms are expected to spread northwest to southeast across the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as the front stalls in the vicinity of the northern CWA border. Isolated strong to severe storms could be possible mainly along and west of the Ohio River Wednesday evening. With precipitable water values climbing to 2 or more inches, heavy downpours are also likely to accompany storms and could eventually lead to localized flash flooding in poor drainage areas or locations that are impacted by multiple storms late Wednesday or Thursday. Temperatures warm above normal on Wednesday, with mid 70s to upper 80s expected for the mountains and 90s in the lowlands. While still rather warm, clouds and precipitation should keep Thursday`s highs a few degrees lower than the previous day. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 155 PM Monday... Key Points: * Unsettled late week into the weekend. * Temperatures remain near to above normal through early next week. The long term forecast period starts out with a frontal boundary lingering just north of the CWA while a low and upper shortwave trough depart the Central Plains. This system tracks into the Great Lakes region on Friday, lifts the stalled boundary to the north as a warm front, and then ushers a cold front across the area this weekend. High pressure may slide in at the surface early next week, however, daytime heating and shortwave energy passing overhead could still support some afternoon showers and storms. Temperatures are expected to be near to above normal through early next week, with highs ranging from 80s to 90s in the lowlands and mid 70s to upper 80s along the mountains. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 710 PM Monday... VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period across much of the area. The one exception will be with patchy valley fog tonight, primarily across the river valleys, with the potential for IFR/LIFR restrictions late tonight at EKN. Any fog will dissipate after 12Z Tuesday with a return of VFR area wide, with generally light winds, although occasional gusts in the teens, mainly across the higher terrain. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog tonight, high otherwise. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and timing tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JLB/GW NEAR TERM...SL/GW SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...SL