Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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068 FXUS61 KRLX 020629 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 229 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings dry weather through Wednesday. Temperatures warm for Tuesday. Next chance for rain arrives late Wednesday. Semi- stationary cold front expected on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 229 AM Tuesday... Broad surface high pressure, centered over the NE states today, drifts east off the NE coast this evening. This will bring southeast flow today turning southerly tonight. This return flow will result in a significant warmup across the region today with highs reaching the the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s higher elevations. Dry weather continues tonight with temperatures lowering into the mid 60s lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s northeast mountains. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 155 PM Monday... Key Point: * Chances for rain and storms return Wednesday into Thursday. An upper level ridge will be present over the southeastern US while a low traverses central Canada. High pressure should allow dry weather to persist into Wednesday morning before ridging compresses south and a shortwave pivoting around the outskirts of the upper low steers a cold front towards the Middle Ohio Valley. Chances of rain and storms are expected to spread northwest to southeast across the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as the front stalls in the vicinity of the northern CWA border. Isolated strong to severe storms could be possible mainly along and west of the Ohio River Wednesday evening. With precipitable water values climbing to 2 or more inches, heavy downpours are also likely to accompany storms and could eventually lead to localized flash flooding in poor drainage areas or locations that are impacted by multiple storms late Wednesday or Thursday. Temperatures warm above normal on Wednesday, with mid 70s to upper 80s expected for the mountains and 90s in the lowlands. While still rather warm, clouds and precipitation should keep Thursday`s highs a few degrees lower than the previous day. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 155 PM Monday... Key Points: * Unsettled late week into the weekend. * Temperatures remain near to above normal through early next week. The long term forecast period starts out with a frontal boundary lingering just north of the CWA while a low and upper shortwave trough depart the Central Plains. This system tracks into the Great Lakes region on Friday, lifts the stalled boundary to the north as a warm front, and then ushers a cold front across the area this weekend. High pressure may slide in at the surface early next week, however, daytime heating and shortwave energy passing overhead could still support some afternoon showers and storms. Temperatures are expected to be near to above normal through early next week, with highs ranging from 80s to 90s in the lowlands and mid 70s to upper 80s along the mountains. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 131 AM Tuesday... Broad high pressure will keep widespread VFR conditions across most sites through the period. The exception will be at EKN where IFR/LIFR dense valley fog will likely develop from 08Z through 12Z. Widespread VFR conditions will follow after 12Z under light southeast flow with occasional gusts in the teens, mainly across the higher terrain. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and timing tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 07/02/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H M L L L L H H H M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JLB/GW NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...ARJ