Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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054 FXUS61 KRLX 021329 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 929 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings dry weather into Wednesday. Temperatures warm for Tuesday. Next chance for rain arrives late Wednesday. Semi-stationary cold front expected on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 928 AM Tuesday... A few minor adjustments were made to temperatures in this morning`s update to better reflect current observations. No other changes were made and the forecast remains on track. As of 229 AM Tuesday... Broad surface high pressure, centered over the NE states today, drifts east off the NE coast this evening. This will bring southeast flow today turning southerly tonight. This return flow will result in a significant warmup across the region today with highs reaching the the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s higher elevations. Dry weather continues tonight with temperatures lowering into the mid 60s lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s northeast mountains. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM Tuesday... Key Points: * Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Wednesday with cold front. * There is a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather across SE Ohio and NE Kentucky on Wednesday. Area of high pressure over the southern CONUS allowing a ridge pattern to sit over the area. Dry weather will stick around into early Wednesday afternoon. The ridge will then shrink southward with an approaching shortwave/cold front from the west. PoPs then increase gradually from west to east across Ohio through the afternoon; spreading across much of the forecast area into the evening. The front then stalls Wednesday night into Thursday with showers and thunderstorms carrying over into Thursday as it sits in our vicinity. There is a marginal risk for severe weather across SE Ohio and much of Kentucky for Wednesday into Thursday associated with this system. The main risk will be damaging winds, but heavy downpours remain possible with precipitable water reaching 2 inches or higher across the area. Isolated or localized flash flooding could be possible as a result. Temperatures look to be in the low to mid 90s across the lowlands on Wednesday, mid 70s to upper 80s are expected for the mountains. Slightly less warmer temperatures on Thursday with most of the area staying in the 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... The previously mentioned stalled front will gain some steam late Thursday, pulling off to the north and subsequently taking PoPs with it. Another cold front looks to swing down with a low pressure center that will drop out of Canada into the upper midwest/Great Lakes area. In turn, the start of the weekend looks unsettled, but a dry period may emerge from Sunday into Monday with high pressure. Temperatures look to remain hot and above the seasonable normal into next week. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 610 AM Tuesday... Widespread VFR conditions will prevail over most terminals through the period. The exception will be IFR/LIFR conditions at EKN under patchy fog, roughly from 08Z to 12Z late tonight into Wednesday morning. Light southeast from will turn southerly today with occasional gusts in the teens, mainly across the higher terrain. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and timing tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L H M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC/JMC NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMC SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...ARJ