Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
932 FXUS61 KRLX 030547 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 147 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings dry weather into Wednesday. Next chance for rain arrives late Wednesday. Semi-stationary cold front expected on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 505 PM Tuesday... No changes necessary. As of 106 PM Tuesday... Quiet weather will continue the rest of today, courtesy of high pressure. Temperatures are running a bit higher than yesterday, mainly due to a more southerly component to the wind. Expect mainly clear skies overnight with diminishing winds, but patchy fog may develop in the sheltered mountain valleys. Most of Wednesday will remain quiet with high pressure in control. A south-southwesterly wind will make it a hotter day with temperatures reaching the lower 90s in the lowlands. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Ohio due to an approaching 500-mb shortwave. One or two severe storms cannot be ruled out as instability builds throughout the day. 0-6km shear will only be 20-25 kts, which could be a limiting factor. SPC has placed southeast Ohio in a marginal risk of severe weather for this timeframe. West Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and southwest Virginia should be mostly free of thunderstorms with little/no forcing and a more stable atmosphere. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 125 PM Tuesday... Key Points: * There is a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather across SE Ohio and NE Kentucky on Wednesday Night. * There is a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather across the entire forecast area for Thursday into Thursday evening. Showers move into the area Wednesday night, especially for the mid- Ohio Valley and our SE Ohio counties. There remains a bit of uncertainty on just how far southeast precip may make it by sunrise, so we only have Chance POPs southeast of the I-79 corridor. However, the entire area looks to see showers and storms Thursday and Thursday night as the front moves towards and stalls near or over the CWA. SPC has assessed a Marginal risk for Wednesday night for the Ohio River and SE Ohio, with Marginal across the whole area for Thursday. The Wednesday night risk would likely mainly depend on clusters or a line with severe winds moving into the area. For Thursday, the potential for morning showers or at least cloud cover could limit instability and severe potential. As the front remains stalled near the area in zonal flow aloft, and disturbances move along it, showers and storms will remain possible across the area on Friday and Friday night. We`ll likely remain near or a bit above normal on high temps for Thursday and Friday, but that may be dependent on precip coverage and cloud cover. With the expected humidity and dewpoints, overnight lows will remain above normal, in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM Tuesday... An upper-level trough should finally break through the zonal flow Saturday and kick the front through the area. There will still be a chance for rain mostly in the southern and eastern parts of the CWA on Saturday, but that should quickly come to an end overnight as drier air works into the area. We should be dry on Sunday, and possibly Monday as well. However, don`t expect much in the way of temperature relief, as it currently doesn`t look to be a significant push of cooler or drier air, and high temps may at best revert towards normal. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 144 AM Wednesday... Widespread VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least 00Z Thursday. Opted to remove dense fog development and associated IFR/LIFR conditions at EKN during the predawn hours due to clouds over the area preventing radiational cooling to do its work. After 12Z, VFR with light southwesterly winds. However, occasional gusts in the teens will be possible after 15Z. Most of the area will remain dry through the afternoon hours. Then, convection will fire up ahead of an approaching cold front across SE OH by late afternoon into the evening hours. Any strong shower or thunderstorms will produce brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions along their path. Terminals most likely to be affected will be PKB, HTS and CRW around 00Z and thereafter. Thunderstorms will weaken to just showers as they move into a more stable environment over the eastern terminals. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Shallow dense fog may develop along the Tygart river valley, including EKN late overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/03/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M L L L L M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night and Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC NEAR TERM...SL/JMC SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...ARJ