984
FXUS61 KRLX 051821
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
221 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A thunderstorm complex is likely to cross this afternoon and
evening. A cold front crosses overnight into Saturday, with
drier weather in store for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Friday...

Mostly sunny skies, especially across the southern half of the
forecast area will allow significant destabilization through early
this afternoon ahead of an advancing shortwave. Convection
associated with this feature is moving through eastern KY and is
expected to intensify as it reaches our western counties around 2-3
PM. With the forcing from the aforementioned shortwave, expect
activity to continue/develop into a linear structure with bowing
segments with wind damage as the primary threat. Although low level
turning is minimal, any northeasterly surges in this line will need
to be monitored for brief QLCS tornadoes as southwesterly 0-3KM
shear vectors approach 30KTs, but the overall threat for tornadoes
is low.

Localized very heavy rainfall rates with this activity may also
yield some localized flash flooding, especially where more
significant rain has fallen in the last 24 hours. Overall, this
activity should be fair progressive, except for any northeast surges
which could yield at least some training. Think the threat remains
isolated enough to forgo any flash flood watches.

Cold frontal passage overnight may yield some additional non-severe
showers and storms prior to exiting east by Saturday morning.

In the wake of afternoon and evening precipitation, will see at
least some patchy fog or low stratus heading into Saturday morning.
After any morning fog burns off Saturday is expected to be a mainly
quiet day - with slightly cooler and less humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

High pressure should allow for clear to mostly clear skies and
dry weather through the period. Lower dew points and calm winds
under the high pressure will yield cooler overnight temps,
especially Saturday night, when lows will be down into the 60s
area-wide. We can also expect some valley fog, with chances a
bit higher on Saturday night compared to Sunday night. Highs on
Sunday look to be a bit above normal, with mid-70s to mid-80s in
higher terrain and upper 80s to lower 90s in the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Friday...

Southwest flow returns on Monday, along with the heat and
humidity, and some showers and storms may start to creep into
the higher terrain and the southern coalfields that evening.
However, the bulk of shower and storm potential looks to hold
off until Tuesday or Tuesday night, when an upper-level trough
may push a front through the area.

That said, there is some disagreement among both deterministic
and ensemble models on the timing of the front`s passage, with
some solutions not having the upper-trough push the front
through until Wednesday. The timing uncertainty has actually
increased a bit from yesterday, so we don`t have as many Likely
POPs (55-75%) on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and the Chance POPS
(25-55%) are `smeared` over a broader time frame, stretching
from Tuesday through Wednesday evening. We should be able to
tighten up and increase POPs in the coming days as models come
into better agreement on timing. Any ridging behind the front
may be on the `dirty` side, so at least some shower and t-storm
chances remain in the forecast for Thursday.

On the temperature side of things, Monday will be quite hot,
with highs mainly low to mid-90s in the lower elevations. We`ll
have to monitor the dew point forecast closely for Heat Advisory
potential. As of right now, it looks like dew points may not
increase too much Temps may get knocked down towards normal by
Wednesday and Thursday due to the eventual frontal passage, but
at this time it does not look like a very strong push of cooler
or drier air.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Friday...

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to cross the
region this afternoon into this evening. These storms may briefly
reduce visibilities at the terminals to IFR in locally very heavy
rainfall lasting generally no more than 30 minutes before
intensities start to diminish. In the wake of afternoon and evening
precipitation, will likely see at least patchy fog and/or stratus
developing overnight into Saturday morning. Any fog lifts and
dissipates through 13Z.

Winds generally southwesterly around 8KTs through this evening,
except gusty and erratic near thunderstorms. Winds shift more
westerly and turn light overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Visibilities may vary considerably in
convective cores this afternoon and evening. Development of fog
and MVFR stratocu/IFR stratus overnight tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ006-013>015-
     025-026.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JP