Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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708 FXUS61 KRLX 032328 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 728 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings hot weather this afternoon. Chance of rain arrives late this afternoon and tonight. More active weather is expected July 4th and Friday with cold fronts. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 120 PM Wednesday... A Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of WV, southeast OH and northeast KY through this evening with heat index values reaching around 100 during the hottest part of the afternoon. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and this evening in southeast Ohio ahead of a 500-mb shortwave. However, 0-6km shear will be weak (only 20-25 kts) and instability will be weak to marginal (MLCAPE 500-800 J/kg). Thunderstorms should lose intensity as they approach and track east of the Ohio River, where the instability will be even weaker. Severe weather potential will be a little greater Thursday with models showing MLCAPE reaching 1,000-1,200 J/kg in parts of WV and northeast KY. 0-6 km shear is still expected to be fairly weak (only around 25 kts in most spots). As ripples of 500-mb vorticity approaches from the west, a few severe thunderstorms will be possible during the day, with the main threat being damaging winds. With weak shear over most of the area, severe thunderstorms may have difficulty organizing, potentially causing them to be short lived. The SPC currently has a marginal risk of severe weather over the region for Thursday. In addition, there is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. PWATs are projected to be anywhere from 1.8-2.2 inches across the region, which can lead to heavy downpours. We will have to watch for the potential for localized flooding if thunderstorms begin to train over the same areas. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 PM Wednesday... A cold front will stall over or near the area Thursday night, leaving abundant moisture and chances of showers and thunderstorms. That front will push back northward on Friday as a warm front. Soundings show effective layer CAPES of 1000 to 1500 Friday afternoon with a freezing level above 16000 feet. That means storms would have a hard time getting any sizable hail to the ground. Soundings in western West Virginia, southeast Ohio, and northeast Kentucky do show some mid level dry air, so damaging winds are a possibility. SPC has outlooked this region with a marginal chance of severe thunderstorms. A cold front will then push through the area Friday night, providing additional showers and thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1230 PM Wednesday... With a cold front off to the east Saturday morning, any lingering precipitation over eastern West Virignia and southwestern Virginia will tapper off. A high pressure system will then build over the area, providing seasonable temperatures for Saturday afternoon. The high will provide dry weather for Sunday, with temperatures increasing slightly. As the high shifts off to the east on Monday, some southerly moisture will allow for a chance of showers and thunderstorms, along with above normal temperatures. Models diverge some for Tuesday, with some showing a cold front Tuesday or Tuesday night, while others keep the front to our north. Either way, moisture over the area should allow for a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 725 PM Wednesday... A line of showers and storms will sag south into southeast Ohio, northeast KY, and perhaps continue into parts of WV through 08Z. Expect brief MVFR and IFR conditions in vicinity of storms. Otherwise, an area of MVFR cigs is expected to develop, mainly between 09-15Z, and mainly across SE Ohio and north central WV, with improvement to VFR after 15Z. However, after 15-18Z, showers and storms will ramp back up in coverage again, with MVFR/IFR conditions in vicinity of storms, and strong gusty winds expected in vicinity of storms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection and associated restrictions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening and Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>009- 013>015-017-025-026. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...SL