002
FXUS61 KRLX 040533
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
133 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary front becomes diffuse today. Upper level disturbance and
unsettle conditions provide showers and thunderstorms today, More
active weather is expected Friday with a cold front passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 805 PM Wednesday...

No changes necessary.

As of 120 PM Wednesday...

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of WV, southeast
OH and northeast KY through this evening with heat index values
reaching around 100 during the hottest part of the afternoon.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon and this evening in southeast Ohio ahead of a 500-mb
shortwave. However, 0-6km shear will be weak (only 20-25 kts)
and instability will be weak to marginal (MLCAPE 500-800 J/kg).
Thunderstorms should lose intensity as they approach and track
east of the Ohio River, where the instability will be even
weaker.

Severe weather potential will be a little greater Thursday with
models showing MLCAPE reaching 1,000-1,200 J/kg in parts of WV
and northeast KY. 0-6 km shear is still expected to be fairly
weak (only around 25 kts in most spots). As ripples of 500-mb
vorticity approaches from the west, a few severe thunderstorms
will be possible during the day, with the main threat being
damaging winds. With weak shear over most of the area, severe
thunderstorms may have difficulty organizing, potentially causing
them to be short lived. The SPC currently has a marginal risk
of severe weather over the region for Thursday. In addition,
there is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. PWATs are
projected to be anywhere from 1.8-2.2 inches across the region,
which can lead to heavy downpours. We will have to watch for the
potential for localized flooding if thunderstorms begin to
train over the same areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Wednesday...

A cold front will stall over or near the area Thursday night,
leaving abundant moisture and chances of showers and
thunderstorms. That front will push back northward on Friday as
a warm front. Soundings show effective layer CAPES of 1000 to
1500 Friday afternoon with a freezing level above 16000 feet.
That means storms would have a hard time getting any sizable
hail to the ground. Soundings in western West Virginia,
southeast Ohio, and northeast Kentucky do show some mid level
dry air, so damaging winds are a possibility. SPC has outlooked
this region with a marginal chance of severe thunderstorms.

A cold front will then push through the area Friday night,
providing additional showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Wednesday...

With a cold front off to the east Saturday morning, any
lingering precipitation over eastern West Virignia and
southwestern Virginia will tapper off. A high pressure system
will then build over the area, providing seasonable temperatures
for Saturday afternoon. The high will provide dry weather for
Sunday, with temperatures increasing slightly.

As the high shifts off to the east on Monday, some southerly
moisture will allow for a chance of showers and thunderstorms,
along with above normal temperatures.

Models diverge some for Tuesday, with some showing a cold front
Tuesday or Tuesday night, while others keep the front to our
north. Either way, moisture over the area should allow for a
decent chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 129 AM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to diminish in coverage
and intensity overnight. Some of this activity may bring MVFR
conditions to HTS, CRW, and EKN overnight. Otherwise, VFR
conditions should prevail through at least 12Z.

An area of MVFR ceilings may develop during the morning hours
mainly across SE Ohio and north central WV, with improvement to
VFR after 15Z. However, very unstable conditions and the passage
of an upper level short wave will enhance showers and
thunderstorm, some strong to severe, this afternoon and evening.
Very heavy downpours can be expected with the heavier storms.
This will produce brief periods of IFR/LIFR under strong showers
or storms.

Winds will continue to be light from the southwest, except
variable and gusty nearby stronger storms.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection and associated
restrictions may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 07/04/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening
and Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL/JMC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ