Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
825 FXUS61 KRLX 040705 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 305 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Stationary front becomes diffuse today. Upper level disturbance and unsettle conditions provide showers and thunderstorms today. More active weather is expected Friday with a cold front passage. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 805 PM Wednesday... No changes necessary. As of 120 PM Wednesday... A Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of WV, southeast OH and northeast KY through this evening with heat index values reaching around 100 during the hottest part of the afternoon. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and this evening in southeast Ohio ahead of a 500-mb shortwave. However, 0-6km shear will be weak (only 20-25 kts) and instability will be weak to marginal (MLCAPE 500-800 J/kg). Thunderstorms should lose intensity as they approach and track east of the Ohio River, where the instability will be even weaker. Severe weather potential will be a little greater Thursday with models showing MLCAPE reaching 1,000-1,200 J/kg in parts of WV and northeast KY. 0-6 km shear is still expected to be fairly weak (only around 25 kts in most spots). As ripples of 500-mb vorticity approaches from the west, a few severe thunderstorms will be possible during the day, with the main threat being damaging winds. With weak shear over most of the area, severe thunderstorms may have difficulty organizing, potentially causing them to be short lived. The SPC currently has a marginal risk of severe weather over the region for Thursday. In addition, there is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. PWATs are projected to be anywhere from 1.8-2.2 inches across the region, which can lead to heavy downpours. We will have to watch for the potential for localized flooding if thunderstorms begin to train over the same areas. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM Thursday... Cold front moves northward as a warm front allowing for above normal temperatures to move back in with southwesterly/southerly flow taking precedence. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 for the lowlands with mid 70s to the upper 80s being reached in the mountains. There is currently a marginal risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall across the area Friday with a cold front. The marginal risk for severe being situated across the western portions of the forecast area along the Ohio River Valley, most likely due to the timing of the frontal passage. Excessive rainfall risk is shifted farther to the east and along the mountains to cover overnight stratiform rainfall with this front. There could be some strong to severe storms that achieve damaging winds in the afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday... Cold front will be exiting come Saturday morning with chances for lingering showers or drizzle in the mountains until afternoon. Stark clearing will take place behind the front, as well with drier weather settling in for the remainder of the weekend thanks to high pressure. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return on Monday as a few shortwaves look to move through. A cold front also looks to cross on Tuesday allowing for higher probabilities for showers and thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures will continue through the long-term period with the hottest afternoon looking to be on Monday, where 90s will be common across most the lowlands. Otherwise, mid to high 80s will be the normal each afternoon for the lowlands, with the mountains ranging between the mid 70s and mid 80s. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 129 AM Thursday... Showers and thunderstorms will continue to diminish in coverage and intensity overnight. Some of this activity may bring MVFR conditions to HTS, CRW, and EKN overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through at least 12Z. An area of MVFR ceilings may develop during the morning hours mainly across SE Ohio and north central WV, with improvement to VFR after 15Z. However, very unstable conditions and the passage of an upper level short wave will enhance showers and thunderstorm, some strong to severe, this afternoon and evening. Very heavy downpours can be expected with the heavier storms. This will produce brief periods of IFR/LIFR under strong showers or storms. Winds will continue to be light from the southwest, except variable and gusty nearby stronger storms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection and associated restrictions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/04/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H L M M M M H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening and Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC NEAR TERM...SL/JMC SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...ARJ