631
FXUS61 KRLX 041749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
149 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary front becomes diffuse today. Showers and
thunderstorms expected today and Friday. Drier weather is in
store for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 148 PM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms are breaking out across the region
early this afternoon with 1,500-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE. 0-6 km
wind shear generally remains less than 25 kts across the region.
The lack of shear should keep most storms below severe levels
today, but there is potential for one or two stronger storms
bringing damaging wind gusts. The air is quite juicy today with
PWATs ranging from 1.8-2.2 inches, and we will be closely
watching for training thunderstorms, which can lead to isolated
flooding.

There should be a break in the thunderstorm activity overnight,
but more thunderstorms are expected Friday ahead of an advancing
cold front. Friday`s situation should be similar to today: low
shear with moderate to high CAPE. Once again, we will be
monitoring for a damaging wind threat and isolated flooding in
training thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Thursday...

Cold front moves northward as a warm front, allowing for above
normal temperatures to move back in with southwesterly/southerly
flow taking precedence. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s
to around 90 for the lowlands with mid 70s to the upper 80s
being reached in the mountains.

There is currently a marginal risk for severe weather and
excessive rainfall across the area Friday with a cold front. The
marginal risk for severe being situated across the western
portions of the forecast area along the Ohio River Valley, most
likely due to the timing of the frontal passage. Excessive
rainfall risk is shifted farther to the east and along the
mountains to cover overnight stratiform rainfall with this
front. There could be some strong to severe storms that achieve
damaging winds in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Thursday...

Southwest flow returns on Monday, along with a shot of heat and
humidity, and some showers and storms may start to creep into
the higher terrain and the southern coalfields that evening.
However, the bulk of shower and storm potential looks to hold
off until Tuesday or Tuesday night, when a stronger upper-level
trough should push a front through the area. However, with
uncertainty on just how much dry air will be behind the front, a
chance for precip lingers into Wednesday as we may have some
air mass convection.

Monday will be quite hot, with highs mainly low to mid-90s in
the lower elevations, and we`ll have to monitor the dew point
forecast closely for Heat Advisory potential. Temps may get
knocked down towards normal on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the
expected precip and frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 141 PM Thursday...

A mixture of MVFR and VFR ceilings will continue the rest of today
with on and off showers and thunderstorms. Visibility can drop to
IFR at times in thunderstorm downpours. In addition, winds can
occasionally gust 30-40 kts at times in the stronger cells. The
best chance of thunderstorms will likely be before 00Z Friday,
then there will probably be a break overnight.

Scattered to broken low stratus is expected to develop overnight
with some terminals dropping down to MVFR after 06Z. IFR fog is
expected to develop in the sheltered mountain valleys, but we`re
thinking that low stratus should prevent fog formation
elsewhere. Another round of thunderstorms is likely Friday
morning and afternoon, with occasional visibility drops to IFR
likely again in downpours.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection and associated
restrictions may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JMC