237
FXUS61 KRLX 041852
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
252 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary front becomes diffuse today. Showers and
thunderstorms expected today and Friday. Drier weather is in
store for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 148 PM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms are breaking out across the region
early this afternoon with 1,500-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE. 0-6 km
wind shear generally remains less than 25 kts across the region.
The lack of shear should keep most storms below severe levels
today, but there is potential for one or two stronger storms
bringing damaging wind gusts. The air is quite juicy today with
PWATs ranging from 1.8-2.2 inches, and we will be closely
watching for training thunderstorms, which can lead to isolated
flooding.

There should be a break in the thunderstorm activity overnight,
but more thunderstorms are expected Friday ahead of an advancing
cold front. Friday`s situation should be similar to today: low
shear with moderate to high CAPE. Once again, we will be
monitoring for a damaging wind threat and isolated flooding in
training thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

Widespread showers and some thunderstorms will be ongoing around
sunset Friday evening. However, the front will be pushing into
the western part of the CWA shortly thereafter, and we should
start to see clearing work in from the west overnight. By
sunrise Saturday morning, precip chances should generally be
confined east of the I-79 corridor. We may have to wait until
during the day on Saturday for the bulk of the `drier` air to
work into the area, with dew points in the low to mid-60s a
welcome relief compared to Thursday and Friday. We should also
see sunny skies Saturday and Sunday, so overall not a bad
weekend for early July in central Appalachia. Light Synoptic
winds behind the front may keep fog from forming Friday night,
but there is a good chance of some valley fog Saturday night, so
that was introduced into the forecast. Highs both days will be
near normal for early July - mid to upper 80s. After a mild
night Friday night, the drier air should allow for lows in the
low to mid-60s Saturday and Sunday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM Thursday...

Southwest flow returns on Monday, along with a shot of heat and
humidity, and some showers and storms may start to creep into
the higher terrain and the southern coalfields that evening.
However, the bulk of shower and storm potential looks to hold
off until Tuesday or Tuesday night, when a stronger upper-level
trough should push a front through the area. However, with
uncertainty on just how much dry air will be behind the front, a
chance for precip lingers into Wednesday as we may have some
air mass convection.

Monday will be quite hot, with highs mainly low to mid-90s in
the lower elevations, and we`ll have to monitor the dew point
forecast closely for Heat Advisory potential. Temps may get
knocked down towards normal on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the
expected precip and frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 141 PM Thursday...

A mixture of MVFR and VFR ceilings will continue the rest of today
with on and off showers and thunderstorms. Visibility can drop to
IFR at times in thunderstorm downpours. In addition, winds can
occasionally gust 30-40 kts at times in the stronger cells. The
best chance of thunderstorms will likely be before 00Z Friday,
then there will probably be a break overnight.

Scattered to broken low stratus is expected to develop overnight
with some terminals dropping down to MVFR after 06Z. IFR fog is
expected to develop in the sheltered mountain valleys, but we`re
thinking that low stratus should prevent fog formation
elsewhere. Another round of thunderstorms is likely Friday
morning and afternoon, with occasional visibility drops to IFR
likely again in downpours.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection and associated
restrictions may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JMC