088
FXUS61 KRLX 042336
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
736 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary front becomes diffuse today. Showers and
thunderstorms expected today and Friday. Drier weather is in
store for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 612 PM Thursday...

Lowered temperatures across the area this evening from previous
forecast as rain has cooled things off quite a bit. Thinking the
bulk of shower and storm activity is done for the evening,
however, could see some of the convection currently in eastern
IN and central Ohio affect northern zones. But overall, drier
weather should occur across much of the CWA this
evening/tonight, with areas of low stratus forming.

As of 148 PM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms are breaking out across the region
early this afternoon with 1,500-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE. 0-6 km
wind shear generally remains less than 25 kts across the region.
The lack of shear should keep most storms below severe levels
today, but there is potential for one or two stronger storms
bringing damaging wind gusts. The air is quite juicy today with
PWATs ranging from 1.8-2.2 inches, and we will be closely
watching for training thunderstorms, which can lead to isolated
flooding.

There should be a break in the thunderstorm activity overnight,
but more thunderstorms are expected Friday ahead of an advancing
cold front. Friday`s situation should be similar to today: low
shear with moderate to high CAPE. Once again, we will be
monitoring for a damaging wind threat and isolated flooding in
training thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

Widespread showers and some thunderstorms will be ongoing around
sunset Friday evening. However, the front will be pushing into
the western part of the CWA shortly thereafter, and we should
start to see clearing work in from the west overnight. By
sunrise Saturday morning, precip chances should generally be
confined east of the I-79 corridor. We may have to wait until
during the day on Saturday for the bulk of the `drier` air to
work into the area, with dew points in the low to mid-60s a
welcome relief compared to Thursday and Friday. We should also
see sunny skies Saturday and Sunday, so overall not a bad
weekend for early July in central Appalachia. Light Synoptic
winds behind the front may keep fog from forming Friday night,
but there is a good chance of some valley fog Saturday night, so
that was introduced into the forecast. Highs both days will be
near normal for early July - mid to upper 80s. After a mild
night Friday night, the drier air should allow for lows in the
low to mid-60s Saturday and Sunday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM Thursday...

Southwest flow returns on Monday, along with a shot of heat and
humidity, and some showers and storms may start to creep into
the higher terrain and the southern coalfields that evening.
However, the bulk of shower and storm potential looks to hold
off until Tuesday or Tuesday night, when a stronger upper-level
trough should push a front through the area. However, with
uncertainty on just how much dry air will be behind the front, a
chance for precip lingers into Wednesday as we may have some
air mass convection.

Monday will be quite hot, with highs mainly low to mid-90s in
the lower elevations, and we`ll have to monitor the dew point
forecast closely for Heat Advisory potential. Temps may get
knocked down towards normal on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the
expected precip and frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM Thursday...

Bulk of showers and storms have moved out of the area this
evening. There is still the possibility of isolated showers and
storms anywhere tonight, but bulk of area should remain dry.

Otherwise, areas of MVFR, and local IFR cigs have developed
across parts of SE Ohio and north central WV this evening. These
may briefly improve to VFR, but then, widespread MVFR and
areas/local IFR is expected to develop overnight, particularly
after 06Z, and linger through 12-15Z Friday, when gradual
improvement to VFR is expected.

After 18-20Z Friday, another round of showers and storms is
expected to develop, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty
winds.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and restrictions of low stratus
overnight may vary from forecast. Storms on Friday may develop
sooner in the day than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...

Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday evening.
IFR in low stratus or fog possible overnight Friday into early
Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL/JMC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...SL