868
FXUS61 KRLX 050613
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
213 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary front keeps showers and thunderstorms possible
through Friday. A cold front ends the chance once it crosses
Friday night. Drier weather is in store for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 210 AM Friday...

The overnight forecast is largely on track. Have delayed the onset
of convection Friday based on the latest near term model
trends. This may allow apparent temperatures to reach heat
advisory criteria across portions of the lowlands early this
afternoon, although the cloud cover forecast remains similar to
the previous forecast.

As of 612 PM Thursday...

Lowered temperatures across the area this evening from previous
forecast as rain has cooled things off quite a bit. Thinking the
bulk of shower and storm activity is done for the evening,
however, could see some of the convection currently in eastern
IN and central Ohio affect northern zones. But overall, drier
weather should occur across much of the CWA this
evening/tonight, with areas of low stratus forming.

As of 148 PM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms are breaking out across the region
early this afternoon with 1,500-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE. 0-6 km
wind shear generally remains less than 25 kts across the region.
The lack of shear should keep most storms below severe levels
today, but there is potential for one or two stronger storms
bringing damaging wind gusts. The air is quite juicy today with
PWATs ranging from 1.8-2.2 inches, and we will be closely
watching for training thunderstorms, which can lead to isolated
flooding.

There should be a break in the thunderstorm activity overnight,
but more thunderstorms are expected Friday ahead of an advancing
cold front. Friday`s situation should be similar to today: low
shear with moderate to high CAPE. Once again, we will be
monitoring for a damaging wind threat and isolated flooding in
training thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

Widespread showers and some thunderstorms will be ongoing around
sunset Friday evening. However, the front will be pushing into
the western part of the CWA shortly thereafter, and we should
start to see clearing work in from the west overnight. By
sunrise Saturday morning, precip chances should generally be
confined east of the I-79 corridor. We may have to wait until
during the day on Saturday for the bulk of the `drier` air to
work into the area, with dew points in the low to mid-60s a
welcome relief compared to Thursday and Friday. We should also
see sunny skies Saturday and Sunday, so overall not a bad
weekend for early July in central Appalachia. Light Synoptic
winds behind the front may keep fog from forming Friday night,
but there is a good chance of some valley fog Saturday night, so
that was introduced into the forecast. Highs both days will be
near normal for early July - mid to upper 80s. After a mild
night Friday night, the drier air should allow for lows in the
low to mid-60s Saturday and Sunday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM Thursday...

Southwest flow returns on Monday, along with a shot of heat and
humidity, and some showers and storms may start to creep into
the higher terrain and the southern coalfields that evening.
However, the bulk of shower and storm potential looks to hold
off until Tuesday or Tuesday night, when a stronger upper-level
trough should push a front through the area. However, with
uncertainty on just how much dry air will be behind the front, a
chance for precip lingers into Wednesday as we may have some
air mass convection.

Monday will be quite hot, with highs mainly low to mid-90s in
the lower elevations, and we`ll have to monitor the dew point
forecast closely for Heat Advisory potential. Temps may get
knocked down towards normal on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the
expected precip and frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 AM Friday...

A wavy front and mid level disturbances keep showers and
thunderstorms around much of the TAF period.

Showers and thunderstorms in north central WV at the start of
the period will move out of the CKB area around 07Z, and then
pass north of EKN. Elsewhere, showers should remain too isolated
for explicit inclusion in the TAFs.

Patchy valley fog forming overnight could impact TAF sites with
MVFR to IFR visibility through 12Z. MVFR stratocumulus may also
form, especially as the fog lifts after 12Z Friday morning. This
stratocu will lift and scatter out later Friday morning,
yielding VFR conditions into Friday afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms are most likely across southern sites
later Friday afternoon, as a convective complex moves across. A
shower or thunderstorm is possible most anywhere Friday night,
as a cold front approaches. Any thunderstorm Friday afternoon or
night can produce brief IFR conditions and strong wind gusts.

Surface flow outside thunderstorms will generally be light south
overnight, and then light southwest Friday and Friday night.
Moderate west flow aloft overnight will be light west on Friday,
and then light southwest Friday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Visibility and ceilings restrictions may
vary from forecast into Friday morning. Storms on Friday may
develop sooner in the day than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 07/05/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    L    M    M    L    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    M    M    M    L    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR in low stratus or fog possible overnight Friday night into
Saturday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL/JMC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...TRM