337
FXUS61 KRLX 050749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
349 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front keeps showers and thunderstorms possible
today. A cold front ends the chance once it crosses overnight
into Saturday. Drier weather is in store for this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

Isolated showers continue to form across northern WV early this
morning, ahead of a mid-level short wave trough and south of its
associated surface low pressure center passing to the north.
This development will end west to east through daybreak, as the
system exits.

Dry weather than takes hold in the wake of this system for the
balance of the morning and midday, as a mid-level ridge
crosses. After that, where shower and thunderstorm development
takes place this later this afternoon, in response to a
mid/upper level short wave trough arriving from the west,
depends upon where a weak boundary ends up in the wake of the
morning system. This is expected to be from west to east across
central portions of the area, so late afternoon shower and
thunderstorm development is most likely across roughly the
southern half of the area.

1-2 KJ/kg of CAPE and 0-6/0-8km bulk shear up to 50 kts
suggests marginally severe storms are possible. Timing could be
earlier if a line moving eastward into and across Tennessee and
Kentucky this morning hold together, versus falling apart and
then reforming this afternoon. Either way, damaging wind gusts
are the main threat with a line or line segments.

With PW values in excess of two inches, heavy to locally
excessive downpours are possible with these storms, yielding a
flashy high water threat. Will continue to highlight the strong,
heavy thunderstorm threat in the HWO, for later this afternoon
into this evening

Showers and thunderstorms are then possible most anywhere
tonight ahead of a cold front and another mid/upper-level short
wave trough. The severe threat with this will be little or
none, especially south, where the atmosphere is worked over by
the earlier convection later today. Patchy fog is then likely to
form again overnight tonight.

Temperatures today could top out a bit early this afternoon
where convection develop or arrives from the west. Either way,
have lowered dew points a bit. Still near the higher end of the
guidance envelop, this keeps maximum apparent temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s, just shy of heat advisory criteria.
Temperatures tonight bottom out a bit above normal, with the
cold front just arriving by morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

Only the chance for some showers and drizzle will remain Saturday
morning as a cold front pushes eastward out of the area. Clearing
skies and drier weather will commence as high pressure swiftly
rushes in to fill the gap.

This dry spell will last through Sunday with high temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands on Saturday and upper 80s
to lower 90s on Sunday, with the mountains ranging in the lower 70s
to mid 80s. These temperatures are above normal for this time of
year. Dew points will also be backing off some starting Saturday
afternoon, allowing for a less oppressive feel as they drop from the
70s into the 60s. Overnight lows will remain around normal across
the lowlands to slightly above in the mountains with low to mid 60s
expected for all each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

Monday certainly looks to be the hottest and most humid day next
week at this point in time with highs in the lower to mid 90s across
the lowlands. Southerly flow will resume to usher in more humidity
and moisture with dew point Temperatures looks to remain around
normal or slightly above for the rest of the week. Dew points
in the 70s expected for a few locations across the lowlands.
Temperatures looks to remain around normal or slightly above for
the rest of the week.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms also increase on Monday with a
shortwave and most definitely on Tuesday with a cold front.
Nonetheless, chances for showers and storms remain each
afternoon with diurnal heating, even with models differing
greatly.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 AM Friday...

A wavy front and mid level disturbances keep showers and
thunderstorms around much of the TAF period.

Showers and thunderstorms in north central WV at the start of
the period will move out of the CKB area around 07Z, and then
pass north of EKN. Elsewhere, showers should remain too isolated
for explicit inclusion in the TAFs.

Patchy valley fog forming overnight could impact TAF sites with
MVFR to IFR visibility through 12Z. MVFR stratocumulus may also
form, especially as the fog lifts after 12Z Friday morning. This
stratocu will lift and scatter out later Friday morning,
yielding VFR conditions into Friday afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms are most likely across southern sites
later Friday afternoon, as a convective complex moves across. A
shower or thunderstorm is possible most anywhere Friday night,
as a cold front approaches. Any thunderstorm Friday afternoon or
night can produce brief IFR conditions and strong wind gusts.

Surface flow outside thunderstorms will generally be light south
overnight, and then light southwest Friday and Friday night.
Moderate west flow aloft overnight will be light west on Friday,
and then light southwest Friday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Visibility and ceilings restrictions may
vary from forecast into Friday morning. Storms on Friday may
develop sooner in the day than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 07/05/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR in low stratus or fog possible overnight Friday night into
Saturday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM