Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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199 FXUS61 KALY 290550 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 150 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Expect a dry yet windy end to the work week as clouds give way to breaks of sun and gusty winds. Breezy conditions continue tonight into Saturday morning but then gradually weaken through the day under mainly sunny skies and rather mild temperatures. We continue to keep a close eye on a potential long duration precipitation event for the middle of next week with both rain and snow accumulations possible. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Rain showers have exited well to our east and the rest of the night will remain dry. While low stratus have finally lifted, a cirrus canopy continues to blanket eastern NY and western New England but GOES16 IR shows the back edge of these clouds pushing though central NY and clearing should finally reach the western Mohawk Valley and the western Adirondacks by 12 UTC Fri. Otherwise, northwesterly winds remain elevated tonight with winds sustained 5-15kts and gusts up to 20kts as our coastal low intensifies off the New England coast. The high clouds and winds should reduce the rate of cooling tonight so overnight lows only expected to reach the low to mid-30s with upper 20s in the southern/western Adirondacks and spine of the southern Greens. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cold advection along with gusty northwest winds off the great lakes will allow for some periods of clouds and sun on Friday. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s with lower 40s higher terrain. Wind gusts could be 35 mph to 45 mph in some areas during the afternoon and evening. Still gusty Friday night and much of Saturday but with the coldest air lifts north as upper height rise, a bit more sunshine and better mixing. Highs in the 50s with 40s higher terrain. Weak northern stream upper impulse tracks out of Canada and the Great Lakes Saturday night with limited moisture. Just some isolated to scattered showers Saturday night, with mixed rain and snow showers in higher terrain. The system exits Sunday with increasing sunshine and breezy winds at times. It will be a little cooler after a weak cold front exits, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s with lower 40s higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The period starts out with surface high pressure in place over the region Sun night, which will result in dry and seasonably cool conditions. Then a complex storm system will start to approach from the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions on Mon with increasing clouds. Most of the day should be dry, although there is a small chance of some light precip for areas south/west of Albany. The bulk of the precip looks to arrive late Mon night into Tue, as the primary cyclone starts to track into the lower Great Lakes. High probs for measurable precip during this time, so will mention likely/categorical PoPs. With the initial phase of the storm, rain looks to be the main precip type except across the highest elevations where a rain/snow mix is possible. Forecast confidence lowers by Tue night into Wed, as guidance indicating a large upper closed low emerges from the upper Great Lakes into the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The surface pattern becomes quite chaotic in the guidance Wed into Thu, as the primary cyclone stalls near Lake Erie or Ontario and a possible secondary(coastal) cyclone develops late Wed into Wed night. Significant guidance spread exists with the evolution of the coastal storm. There is potential for significant QPF, although it is far too early for any specifics in terms of timing, amounts and precip types. At this time, higher elevations east/west of the Hudson Valley would have the greatest probs for rain/snow mix changing to snow as the upper low moves overhead late Wed. Lower elevations are expected to primarily have rain, although there could be periods of rain/snow mix depending on the eventual cyclone track and cold air available. Additional wrap-around/upslope precip may linger into Thu as the storm consolidates over New England and the flow shifts to the NW with gusty winds developing. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A large storm system is exiting off the coast of New England and no more precip is expected for the area. There continue to be a large area of overcast mid level clouds over the area, but this will be exiting by shortly after daybreak. Even with these clouds in place, flying conditions are VFR, as ceilings are 10-15 kft. Surface winds are starting to pick up out of the northwest, with sustained winds around 10 kts and some higher gusts up to 20 kts. These winds will continue through daybreak and will be increasing for the during the day on Friday. Through the day on Friday, flying conditions will continue to be VFR. There will be some passing high cirrus clouds and some sct to bkn stratocu/cu will develop during the afternoon around 4-7 kft. West to northwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 kts for all sites, with some gusts up to 30 kts possible for KALB/KPSF. Winds will diminish slightly, but remain rather breezy into Friday night, with sustained winds still 10 to 15 kts and some higher gusts at times. Skies will be clearing out, with just a few lingering cu/stratocu around 4-6 kft remaining around the area. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speciale NEAR TERM...Speciale SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...Frugis