Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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199
FXUS61 KALY 290550
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
150 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a dry yet windy end to the work week as clouds give way
to breaks of sun and gusty winds. Breezy conditions continue
tonight into Saturday morning but then gradually weaken through
the day under mainly sunny skies and rather mild temperatures.
We continue to keep a close eye on a potential long duration
precipitation event for the middle of next week with both rain
and snow accumulations possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

Rain showers have exited well to our east and the rest of the
night will remain dry. While low stratus have finally lifted, a
cirrus canopy continues to blanket eastern NY and western New
England but GOES16 IR shows the back edge of these clouds
pushing though central NY and clearing should finally reach the
western Mohawk Valley and the western Adirondacks by 12 UTC Fri.
Otherwise, northwesterly winds remain elevated tonight with
winds sustained 5-15kts and gusts up to 20kts as our coastal low
intensifies off the New England coast. The high clouds and winds
should reduce the rate of cooling tonight so overnight lows only
expected to reach the low to mid-30s with upper 20s in the
southern/western Adirondacks and spine of the southern Greens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold advection along with gusty northwest winds off the great
lakes will allow for some periods of clouds and sun on Friday.
Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s with lower 40s higher
terrain. Wind gusts could be 35 mph to 45 mph in some areas
during the afternoon and evening.

Still gusty Friday night and much of Saturday but with the
coldest air lifts north as upper height rise, a bit more
sunshine and better mixing. Highs in the 50s with 40s higher
terrain.

Weak northern stream upper impulse tracks out of Canada and the
Great Lakes Saturday night with limited moisture. Just
some isolated to scattered showers Saturday night, with mixed
rain and snow showers in higher terrain. The system exits Sunday
with increasing sunshine and breezy winds at times. It will be a
little cooler after a weak cold front exits, with highs in the
upper 40s to lower 50s with lower 40s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts out with surface high pressure in place over the
region Sun night, which will result in dry and seasonably cool
conditions. Then a complex storm system will start to approach from
the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions on Mon with increasing clouds.
Most of the day should be dry, although there is a small chance of
some light precip for areas south/west of Albany. The bulk of the
precip looks to arrive late Mon night into Tue, as the primary
cyclone starts to track into the lower Great Lakes. High probs for
measurable precip during this time, so will mention
likely/categorical PoPs. With the initial phase of the storm, rain
looks to be the main precip type except across the highest
elevations where a rain/snow mix is possible.

Forecast confidence lowers by Tue night into Wed, as guidance
indicating a large upper closed low emerges from the upper Great
Lakes into the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The surface
pattern becomes quite chaotic in the guidance Wed into Thu, as the
primary cyclone stalls near Lake Erie or Ontario and a possible
secondary(coastal) cyclone develops late Wed into Wed night.
Significant guidance spread exists with the evolution of the coastal
storm. There is potential for significant QPF, although it is far
too early for any specifics in terms of timing, amounts and precip
types. At this time, higher elevations east/west of the Hudson
Valley would have the greatest probs for rain/snow mix changing to
snow as the upper low moves overhead late Wed. Lower elevations are
expected to primarily have rain, although there could be periods of
rain/snow mix depending on the eventual cyclone track and cold air
available. Additional wrap-around/upslope precip may linger into Thu
as the storm consolidates over New England and the flow shifts to
the NW with gusty winds developing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A large storm system is exiting off the coast of New England and no
more precip is expected for the area.  There continue to be a large
area of overcast mid level clouds over the area, but this will be
exiting by shortly after daybreak.  Even with these clouds in place,
flying conditions are VFR, as ceilings are 10-15 kft.  Surface winds
are starting to pick up out of the northwest, with sustained winds
around 10 kts and some higher gusts up to 20 kts.  These winds will
continue through daybreak and will be increasing for the during the
day on Friday.

Through the day on Friday, flying conditions will continue to be
VFR.  There will be some passing high cirrus clouds and some sct to
bkn stratocu/cu will develop during the afternoon around 4-7 kft.
West to northwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 kts for all sites,
with some gusts up to 30 kts possible for KALB/KPSF.

Winds will diminish slightly, but remain rather breezy into Friday
night, with sustained winds still 10 to 15 kts and some higher gusts
at times.  Skies will be clearing out, with just a few lingering
cu/stratocu around 4-6 kft remaining around the area.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Frugis