-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
713
FXUS61 KALY 100503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
103 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another upper-level disturbance will bring additional showers
to the area tonight. Cool and showery weather continues into
Monday beneath continued upper troughing, before high pressure
brings a drying and warming trend for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
.UPDATE...Radar and obs indicating one batch of scattered
showers moving east across parts of the S. Taconics, S.
Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. Otherwise, there is another
small area of showers upstream over the W. Catskills. These
showers may graze parts of N. Catskills over the next 1-2 hours.
Otherwise dry conditions should persist, although an isolated
shower cannot be ruled out. Some breaks in the clouds have
developed north of Albany, so have accounted for less cloud
cover overnight in this area.

.PREV DISCUSSION[1026]...Latest water vapor imagery shows an
upper level shortwave rotating around the base of an upper level
low near southeastern Quebec. This shortwave is pushing through
the Southern Tier of New York at this hour. Rain showers
associated with this shortwave will push across areas mainly
south of I-90 into the overnight hours before departing to the
east. These showers have decreased in overall coverage over the
past few hours. Farther north, only a few isolated showers are
occurring but activity here should also slowly dissipate. In the
wake of this shortwave, mostly dry and cool conditions are
expected for the overnight hours under a partly to mostly cloudy
sky. Lows will fall back into the mid-40s to mid-50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weakening and departing upper troughing through the short term
period will see a modest warming trend, with drying weather
outside of diurnally-forced afternoon and evening rain showers.
Monday looks to remain seasonably cool, with afternoon highs in
the mid 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s
at lower elevations, and overnight lows in the low 40s to low
50s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist across much of
the region, with lake-enhanced cloud coverage expected in the
southwestern Adirondacks. Farther south and east, increased
breaks of sun are possible.

As heights begin to rise aloft on Tuesday, more widespread
clearing is expected, with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies
expected. Temperatures will warm slightly, reaching afternoon
highs in the 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s at
lower elevations, while overnight lows rise to the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The persistent upper-level troughing of recent days finally
exits to the east on Wednesday, although a weak trailing
shortwave may result in a few showers during the day. Otherwise,
dry conditions are expected through Thursday as largely zonal
flow aloft and southwesterly low and mid-level flow about
surface high pressure over the Atlantic allow temperatures to
warm well above normal. Following near-normal highs in the
upper 60s to low 80s across the region on Wednesday, hotter
temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday, with highs in the
70s in high terrain and 80s at lower elevations. Surface
dewpoints rising into the low to mid 60s on Thursday and
especially Friday may make for more muggy-feeling conditions as
the heat index approaches 90 degrees from the Capital District
southward along the Hudson Valley.

Guidance continues to suggest Friday may feature more active
weather as a strong upper-level trough and associated surface
cold front swing across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
Given expected temperatures and humidity, thunderstorms are
certainly possible ahead of and during the frontal passage, with
the potential for some stronger storms depending on shear
magnitude and if diurnal heating further destabilizes the
atmosphere ahead of the boundary.

Any showers or storms will exit by Saturday morning upper
ridging and surface high pressure usher in more placid weather
for the weekend. Temperatures look to trend downward toward
seasonal norms through the weekend as drier and cooler air
filter in on northwest flow beneath clearing skies.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00z/Tue...VFR conditions are in place at the terminals
at this time. Another area of rain showers will cross the
terminals through this evening, mainly at KALB/KPSF/KPOU. While
vsbys/cigs should remain mostly VFR, a period of MVFR vsbys
cannot be ruled out and has been addressed by a TEMPO. KGFL will
be far enough to the north to not be affected. In the wake of
these showers, drier weather is expected for the overnight,
though patchy MVFR stratus/stratocumulus clouds may develop at
some sites. There looks to be enough clouds and dry air in place
to prevent fog formation, so have left out of the TAF at this
time. By Monday morning, clouds will slowly lift back to VFR
levels by the afternoon, though KPSF may be the last to do so
and take longer into the afternoon hours. A few isolated showers
are also possible, mainly in the vicinity of KALB/KGFL/KPSF so
included a VCSH for this activity.

Wind will be west to southwesterly tonight decreasing to less
than 10 kt, then be out of the west to northwest on Monday at
10-15 kt with a few higher gusts, especially at KALB/KPSF.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard/Rathbun
NEAR TERM...JPV/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Rathbun